Loading...
AGENDA - General Committee - 20210518Town of Aurora General Committee Meeting Revised Agenda Date:May 18, 2021 Time:7 p.m. Location:Video Conference Pages 1.Procedural Notes This meeting will be held electronically as per Section 19. i) of the Town's Procedure By-law No. 6228-19, as amended, due to the COVID-19 situation. Mayor Mrakas in the Chair. Additional Items are marked with an asterisk(*). 2.Approval of the Agenda 3.Declarations of Pecuniary Interest and General Nature Thereof 4.Community Presentations 5.Delegations Note: At this time, the Municipal Offices are closed. This meeting will be live streamed at https://www.youtube.com/c/Townofaurora/videos. Anyone wishing to provide comment on an agenda item is encouraged to visit www.aurora.ca/participation for guidelines on electronic delegation. 5.1.Nikolas Papapetrou, Senior Development Manager, SmartCentres and Bliss Edwards, SmartStop Self Storage; Re: Item 8.6 - PDS21-052 - Application for Site Plan Approval, Aurora Self Storage Inc. (and 1623 Wellington Street Developments Limited) 1 6.Consent Agenda 7.Advisory Committee Meeting Minutes 7.1.Environmental Advisory Committee Meeting Minutes of April 28, 2021 12 That the Environmental Advisory Committee meeting minutes of April 28, 2021, be received for information. 1. *7.2.Library Square Project Monitoring Task Force Meeting Minutes of April 13, 2021 16 That the Library Square Project Monitoring Task Force Meeting Minutes of April 13, 2021, be received for information. 1. 8.Consideration of Items Requiring Discussion (Regular Agenda) 8.1.PDS21-053 - Region of York MCR Update - Aurora 2051 Growth Forecasts 20 (Presentation to be provided by Paul Bottomley, Manager, Policy, Research, and Forecasting, Region of York) That Report No. PDS21-053 be received; and1. That Council endorse the Town of Aurora’s 2051 growth forecast of 84,900 persons and 41,000 jobs assigned by York Region, for inclusion in the Region of York Official Plan. 2. 8.2.CS21-017 - Modernized Noise By-law 192 That Report No. CS21-017 be received; and1. That the proposed Noise By-law be brought forward to a future Council meeting for enactment, repealing and replacing the current Noise By-law No. 4787-06.P. 2. 8.3.CS21-049 - Single Source Technology Purchases - Ethernet Switches/Cell Phones/Computers 219 That Report No. CS21-049 be received; and1. That a single source contract be awarded to Extreme Networks in the amount of $396,000 for the purchase of ethernet switches; and 2. That a single source contract be awarded to Rogers in the amount of $225,000 for the purchase of cell phones and cellular plans; and 3. That a single source contract be awarded to Dell in the amount of $1,000,000 for the purchase of computers. 4. 8.4.FIN21-021 - Use of Safe Restart Grant Funding 226 That Report No. FIN21-021 be received; and1. That project #73292 – Picnic Tables, Benches and Garbage Receptacles have its total capital budget authority increased by 2. $25,000, to $55,000, funded by Safe Restart grant; and That project # 72469 – COVID-19 Related Facility Improvements be created with a total capital budget authority of $72,550, funded from the Safe Restart grant; and 3. That the Treasurer be delegated the authority to amend the funding source on Council approved projects to use Safe Restart grant funding as appropriate. 4. 8.5.PDS21-056 - Application for Site Plan Approval, 1623 Wellington Street Developments Limited (Dilwari) 241 Part of Lot 20, Con. 3 Whitchurch, designated as Part 5 on Plan 65R- 39324 (formerly 1623 Wellington Street East), File Number: SP-2021-03, Related File Number: C-2021-01, SP-2021-04 That Report No. PDS21-056 be received; and1. That Site Plan Application File SP-2021-03 to permit the development of a Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment be approved, in principle, subject to the following conditions: 2. That all outstanding comments and requirements from Town and external agencies be addressed to the satisfaction of the Director of Planning and Development Services, prior to execution of a Site Plan agreement; and i. That the Owners enter into a Site Plan Agreement with the Town to address requirements of the Town and external agencies, including but not limited to, the provision for payment by the Owner of all applicable fees, securities, and any other financial obligations. ii. 8.6.PDS21-052 - Application for Site Plan Approval, Aurora Self Storage Inc. (and 1623 Wellington Street Developments Limited) 258 Part of Lot 20, Con. 3 Whitchurch, designated as Parts 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 on Plan 65R-39324 (formerly 1623 Wellington Street East), File Number: SP-2021-04, Related File Number: C-2021-02, SP-2021-03 That Report No. PDS21-052 be received; and1. That Site Plan Application File SP-2021-04 to permit the development of a Commercial Self Storage facility be approved, in principle, subject to the following conditions: 2. That all outstanding comments and requirements from Town and external agencies be addressed to the satisfaction of the Director of Planning and Development i. Services, prior to execution of a Site Plan agreement; and That the Owners enter into a Site Plan Agreement with the Town to address requirements of the Town and external agencies, including but not limited to, the provision for payment by the Owner of all applicable fees, securities, and any other financial obligations. ii. 9.Notices of Motion 9.1.Mayor Mrakas; Re: Town Wide Wi-fi Access 274 9.2.Mayor Mrakas; Re: Review of Proclamations Policy 275 9.3.Mayor Mrakas; Re: Beaver Dam Removal 281 10.Regional Report 10.1.York Regional Council Highlights of April 22, 2021 282 That the York Regional Council Highlights of April 22, 2021, be received for information. 1. 11.New Business 12.Public Service Announcements 13.Closed Session There are no Closed Session items for this meeting. 14.Adjournment 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora Delegation Request Legislative Services This Delegation Request form and any written submissions or background information for consideration by either Council or Committees of Council must be submitted to Legislative Services. Council or Committee Meeting Date: Subject: Name of Spokesperson and Name of Group or Person(s) being Represented (if applicable): Brief Summary of Issue or Purpose of Delegation: Have you been in contact with a Town staff or Council member regarding your matter of interest?Yes տտ No տտ If yes, with whom? Date: տ I acknowledge that the Procedure By-law permits five (5) minutes for Delegations. I wish to submit my delegation by (select one): տ Video/audio* տ Phone*܈ In Writing տ In Person** *Must attend electronic meeting.Please click here for more information. **Subject to meeting format and submission of Screening Registration Form General Committee - May 18, 2021 Site Plan Application for proposed SmartStop Self-Storage Building - 1623 Wellington St. E. SmartCentres/SmartStop Purpose of the delegation is to answer any questions that the Committee may have with respect to the proposed application. Matthew Peverini and Anna Henriques May 5/21 ✔ ✔ ✔ Page 1 of 295 1623 WELLINGTON STREET EAST COMMERCIAL SELF-STORAGE FACILITY GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING MAY 18th, 2021 Page 2 of 295 CONCEPTUAL MASTER PLAN SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 2 Page 3 of 295 LANDSCAPE SITE CONTEXT PLAN SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 3 Page 4 of 295 LANDSCAPING & DETAILS SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 4 Page 5 of 295 BUILDING ELEVATIONS & MATERIALS SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 5 Page 6 of 295 BUILDING ELEVATIONS & MATERIALS SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 6 Page 7 of 295 BUILDING MATERIALS 7 SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 Page 8 of 295 RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 8 Page 9 of 295 RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS SMARTCENTRES x SMARTSTOP | GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING | MAY 18th, 2021 9 Page 10 of 295 THANK YOU! Page 11 of 295 1 Town of Aurora Environmental Advisory Committee Meeting Minutes Date: Time: Location: Wednesday, April 28, 2021 7:00 p.m. Video Conference Committee Members: Councillor Rachel Gilliland (Chair) Margaret Baker Barry Bridgeford Colin Brown Sam Cunningham Ashley Gatto Cassagrande Ryan Hamid Sandy Hudson Crystal Robertson Members Absent: Councillor Wendy Gaertner (Vice Chair) Other Attendees: Natalie Kehle, Analyst, Energy and Climate Change Ishita Soneji, Council/Committee Coordinator _____________________________________________________________________ 1. Procedural Notes This meeting was held electronically as per Section 19. i) of the Town's Procedure By-law No. 6228-19, as amended, due to the COVID-19 situation. The Chair called the meeting to order at 7:03 p.m. 2. Approval of the Agenda Moved by Sam Cunningham Seconded by Barry Bridgeford Page 12 of 295 2 That the agenda as circulated by Legislative Services, be approved. Carried 3. Declarations of Pecuniary Interest and General Nature Thereof There were no declarations of pecuniary interest under the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. M.50. 4. Receipt of the Minutes 4.1 Environmental Advisory Committee Meeting Minutes of February 24, 2021 Moved by Colin Brown Seconded by Crystal Robertson That the Environmental Advisory Committee meeting minutes of February 24, 2021, be received for information. Carried 5. Delegations None. 6. Matters for Consideration 6.1 Memorandum from Energy and Climate Change Analyst, Re: Corporate Environmental Action Plan 2019 Progress Report Staff provided an overview of the memorandum highlighting the background and purpose of the Corporate Environmental Action Plan (CEAP) and the highlights of the progress report. Staff sought Committee's feedback and suggestions regarding the progress report and the associated tracking sheet. The Committee provided feedback and sought clarification about using LIDs for the Town's Library Square project and possible LEED certification for the building and staff provided clarification including the LEED features to be incorporated in the project. The Committee and staff discussed about the possibility of a centralized process for new buildings which includes a form of incentive to ensure they are built as per sustainable development standards and the inclusion of environmental design Page 13 of 295 3 standards in the Official Plan Review. The Committee further inquired about the Town's authority in enforcing sustainable development standards and staff agreed to follow up. The Committee inquired about the access to information regarding invasive species around Town including a form of education avenue to inform the public. Staff advised that through the CEAP and Community Energy Plan (CEP) initiatives, the Corporate Communications division ensures any environmental awareness campaign information is communicated accordingly through social media or local print media. The Committee suggested that an educational campaign specifically regarding mitigation of invasive species would be beneficial for the public, including students. It was noted that further suggestions and information regarding invasive species could be forwarded to staff after the meeting. The Committee inquired about grant opportunities for the Town from the recently announced Federal funding on various environmental initiatives and staff agreed to follow up. The Committee further inquired about the consideration of tree genetics to maintain biodiversity within tree species which are planted in public places and the means of monitoring survivability of existing trees, and staff agreed to follow up. Moved by Barry Bridgeford Seconded by Sandy Hudson 1. That the memorandum regarding Corporate Environmental Action Plan 2019 Progress Report be received; and 2. That the Environmental Advisory Committee comments regarding the Corporate Environmental Action Plan 2019 Progress Report be received and referred to staff for consideration and further action as appropriate. Carried 7. Informational Items None. Page 14 of 295 4 8. Adjournment Moved by Sam Cunningham Seconded by Crystal Robertson That the meeting be adjourned at 8:03 p.m. Carried Page 15 of 295 Town of Aurora Library Square Project Monitoring Task Force Meeting Minutes Date: April 13, 2021 Time and Location: 1 p.m.; the meeting was held electronically Task Force Members: Mayor Tom Mrakas (Task Force Vice-Chair), Deputy Mayor/Councillor Harold Kim, Doug Nadorozny (CAO, Task Force Chair), Robin McDougall (Director, CMS), Rachel Wainwright-van Kessel (Director, Finance), Doug Bertrand (Manager, Facilities), Lianne Jalali (Project Manager, PMO), Phil Rose (Manager, Library Square), Les Camm (Senior Project Manager, Colliers) and Mark Haddock (Project Manager, Colliers) Members Absent: Councillor Michael Thompson Other Attendees: None The Chair called the meeting to order at 1:05 p.m. 1. Delegations None 2. Review of Task Force Minutes Review of Minutes from January 19, 2021. No comments. 3. Project Status Update • Budget, scope and schedule are on target and August 2022 remains anticipated date for Substantial Performance • Significant progress since last meeting held in January 2021, including the following items: Page 16 of 295 Library Square Project Monitoring Task Force Meeting Minutes April 13, 2021 Page 2 of 4 o Fibre and Bell phone lines relocated o Gas line disconnected; to be reconnected at a later date o Pile driving for structural foundation (caissons) has started with 9 nine of approximately 50 complete; remainder to be complete by late April o Remediation around rubble foundation on west wall of 22 Church Street is complete except for minor touch ups o Work at Library is ongoing; elevator pit done and mechanical and electrical to occur later o Library façade supports currently being installed o Cinder block wall repairs taking place on upper floor where new programming rooms and reading garden will be o HVAC units installed at grade that are providing heating and cooling for Library with some minor issues that have been resolved o Drop off and pick up for Library relocated to Church St. side; temporary entrance and exit doors to be installed once the Library reopens to the public • Contingencies – approximately $500,000 spent to date with more CCNs currently under review; this represents 16% of the Construction Contingency budget, which is in line with expectations given the phase of construction (excavation and demolition) and magnitude of the project Q and A ensued regarding specific aspects of the project: Question Response Can you expand on the status of the contingencies and if we are in good shape currently? Overall, we are in a secure position. Excavation has not been as much of an issue as it could have been, which is encouraging, but we did encounter contaminated soil on the north side of the Library and east side of the Church St. School property, which required remediation. This is to be expected during excavation. There were also a couple of additional items such as the elevator sump pit that were costly. Page 17 of 295 Library Square Project Monitoring Task Force Meeting Minutes April 13, 2021 Page 3 of 4 Why were items such as the elevator sump pit missed during design review? Colliers was engaged to identify areas where drawings are unclear or uncoordinated. 150 pages of comments were included in the BDR report prepared by Colliers. Some items may have been missed by all consultants. This is not unusual for a project as multi-faceted and as complex as this project. For example, the OBC requirement for a sump pit for the new elevator was not flagged. Construction contingencies are built into the project budget to address such items. Input costs like steel, lumber and concrete are going up exponentially. How might this impact the project budget? Does the Town have any risk in this regard? We continue to meet bi-weekly with Chandos and they provide regular updates on contracts signed with sub- trades (Chandos reports that 97% of subtrades have been secured to date). Chandos has fixed lump sum contracts with the subtrades that commit them to the prices submitted in the tender. There may be future requests regarding cost increases from Chandos, but we do not expect any at this time. Prices for some inputs are more volatile than others and while they are high now, they may dip again later. We have also informed Chandos that we can stockpile supplies at the JOC if it means we can secure pricing for certain materials and supplies now. Page 18 of 295 Library Square Project Monitoring Task Force Meeting Minutes April 13, 2021 Page 4 of 4 4. Communication Update • engageaurora.ca/librarysquare remains the main repository for all information about Library Square, including Construction Notices • Staff recently installed colourful banners along Victoria that was featured in the Auroran • The Marketing Creative Specialist is currently working on a series of videos that will feature interviews with the Mayor, project stakeholders, and the Site Supervisor • Staff are coordinating a date for the drone camera to fly to capture video footage 5. New Business None 6. Next Meeting Date To be determined. 7. Adjournment The meeting adjourned at 1:47 p.m. Page 19 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora General Committee Report No. PDS 2 1 -0 53 Subject: Region of York MCR Update – Aurora 2051 Growth Forecasts Prepared by: Edward Terry, Senior Policy Planner MCIP, RPP Department: Planning and Development Services Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That Report No. PDS21-053 be received; and, 2. That Council endorse the Town of Aurora’s 2051 growth forecast of 84,900 persons and 41,000 jobs assigned by York Region, for inclusion in the Region of York Official Plan. Executive Summary This report presents for the consideration of Council growth forecasts and density targets proposed to be assigned to Aurora through the Region of York’s ongoing Municipal Comprehensive Review. The growth forecasts and density targets for the Region and the nine local municipalities were presented in a staff report to Regional Council on March 18, 2021 (see Attachment 1). Regional Planning is now consulting with area municipalities on the growth forecasts, density targets and the land needs assessment which incorporates Growth Plan targets, policy objectives and market demand.  Places to Grow assigns population and employment forecasts to York Region, and York Region is responsible for assigning growth to the area municipalities.  The 2051 forecast of 84,900 persons reflects a reasonable 1.1% annual growth rate for Aurora.  Employment growth to 41,000 jobs driven by vacant employment lands along Highway 404.  The intensification rate of 45% and the greenfield density target of 55 residents and jobs per hectare are achievable and realistic targets for the Town. Page 20 of 295 May 18, 2021 2 of 6 Report No. PDS21-053 Background Places to Grow assigns population and employment forecasts to York Region, and York Region is responsible for assigning growth to the area municipalities Since the introduction of Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2006, planning for growth in the Toronto Region has been a coordinated top-down exercise. Population and employment forecasts are prepared at the Provincial level for the six upper and single-tier municipalities in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Region. These must be incorporated in Regional Official Plans, and upper tiers in turn distribute their Places to Grow forecasts to local area municipalities. York Region have been working on their Regional Municipal Comprehensive Review, to update their Regional Official Plan into conformity with the Growth Plan since 2015. The latest amendments to the Growth Plan expanded the planning horizon to 2051, before single and upper-tiers had an opportunity to bring their Official Plans into conformity with the previous version of the Plan having a 2041 planning horizon. The existing Regional Official Plan, and Aurora Official Plan, prepared in conformity with the 2016 Growth Plan, have horizon years of 2031. Table 1 of the Aurora Official Plan indicates a 2031 growth forecast of 70,200 persons and 34,200 jobs. Analysis The 2051 forecast of 84,900 persons reflects a reasonable 1.1% annual growth rate for Aurora York Region acknowledges for Aurora, uncertainty regarding Provincial approval of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre (UYSS) in East Gwillimbury, and timing of its phased implementation as key considerations for distributing and phasing growth. Table 1: Aurora Growth Forecasts to 2051 Year Population Employment 2016 57,200 27,300 2021 64,300 29,200 2026 68,800 31,600 2031 72,700 33,800 2036 75,800 35,800 2041 78,400 37,600 2046 82,000 39,400 2051 84,900 41,000 Page 21 of 295 May 18, 2021 3 of 6 Report No. PDS21-053 As per Table 1 above, Aurora is forecasted to reach a population of 84,900 by 2051. Primary sources of greenfield residential growth will be the build-out of the Aurora 2C and Aurora South secondary plan areas, along with the anticipated buildout of the Aurora 2A secondary plan in the longer term. Intensification is planned to occur within the Aurora Promenade (including the Aurora GO MTSA) and along the Yonge and Wellington Street corridors. For the 2016-2051 forecast period, population growth of 27,700 is equivalent to a 1.1% average annual growth rate. This is the second-lowest forecast growth rate in York Region. Only one municipality (Newmarket) is below 1% and the Regional average is 1.6% annually. Aurora’s 2051 population forecast would result in Aurora having the third-lowest municipal population in York Region. Ahead of Georgina and King, and surpassed by East Gwillimbury and Whitchurch-Stouffville over the 2016-2051 period. Aurora’s 2031 revised population forecast to 2031 is 72,700 persons or 2,500 higher than stated in the existing Regional Official Plan (70,200). Once approved and in force, the 2051 growth forecasts assigned to Aurora in the Regional Official Plan will be used by the Town in preparing master plans such as the Official Plan, the Transportation Master Plan and a review of the Development Charges By-Law. Employment growth to 41,000 jobs driven by vacant employment lands along Highway 404 As per Table 1, Aurora’s employment is forecasted to grow by nearly 14,000 jobs from 2016 to 2051. Just over half of Aurora’s employment growth during this period is anticipated to be in employment areas, primarily in employment areas along the Highway 404 corridor. Population-related employment growth accounts for just over 30% of employment growth. New major office development comprises the remainder the Town’s employment growth and is expected to locate in the Highway 404 and Wellington area. Forecast employment growth 2016-2051 of 13,700 jobs is equivalent to a 1.2% average annual growth rate; similar to the population growth rate, and also second-lowest pace in York Region, but not far off the Regional average (1.4%). Although slightly lower at 400 jobs, Aurora’s revised 2031 employment forecast (33,800) is as close to the current ROP target (34,200) as any other York municipality, percentage-wise (-1.2%). The Region’s revised 2031 figure is down 4.3%, and only two Page 22 of 295 May 18, 2021 4 of 6 Report No. PDS21-053 municipalities (Vaughan and Newmarket) were forecast an increase in jobs for 2031 over their current ROP targets. Aurora’s forecast of 1.1% average annual population growth rate, and 1.2% employment rate, 2016-2051, result in a stable activity rate (ratio of jobs to population) of 48% in both 2016 and 2051. Aurora’s current Official Plan targets a 50% activity rate. The intensification rate of 45% and the greenfield density target of 55 residents and jobs per hectare are achievable and realistic targets for the Town Aurora’s draft intensification target 2016-2051 is 4,600 units, or 45%. This is slightly below the Regional target of 50% and is squarely middle of the pack in York Region - ahead of the more rural/greenfield municipalities of East Gwillimbury, Georgina, King, and Whitchurch-Stouffville, and less than more mature/urban municipalities of Markham, Newmarket, Richmond Hill, and Vaughan. Aurora’s 2051 designated greenfield density target is 55 residents and jobs per hectare. Similar to the intensification target, this is mid-pack in York Region, and slightly below the Regional average of 60 residents and jobs per hectare. Using Aurora’s 2C Secondary Plan as an example, York Region concluded that the Town wide density target of 55 residents and jobs per hectare is achievable over the term of the forecast period. Advisory Committee Review Not applicable. Legal Considerations Legal considerations are contained throughout the report. Financial Implications Conformity to the policies of the new Regional Official Plan, once adopted, will occur through the Town’s Official Plan review. Costs associated with the Official Plan review have already been approved in the Town’s Capital Budget, and consultants retained in accordance with the Town’s procurement process. Page 23 of 295 May 18, 2021 5 of 6 Report No. PDS21-053 Communications Considerations The Town of Aurora will use ‘Inform’ as the level of engagement for this project. There are five different levels of community engagement to consider, with each level providing the community more involvement in the decision making process. These levels are: Inform, Consult, Involve, Collaborate and Empower. Examples of each can be found in the Community Engagement Policy. These options are based on the International Association of Public Participation (IAP2) Spectrum and assist in establishing guidelines for clearly communicating with our public and managing community engagement. In order to inform, this report with be posted to the Town’s website. Link to Strategic Plan Proposed changes to Regional Official Plan that incorporate the policies of the Provincial Growth Plan supports the Town’s Strategic Plan vision for an inclusive, growing, family-oriented community that integrates green spaces, environmental sustainability, economic vitality and communal gathering spaces. It also supports the Strategic Plan’s guiding principles to broaden outreach and leverage partnerships, while validating its goals and objectives to improve mobility and connectivity; invest in sustainable infrastructure; strengthen the fabric of the community; encouraging the stewardship and sustainability of Aurora’s natural resources; and enabling a diverse, creative and resilient economy. Alternative(s) to the Recommendation 1. Receive for information only. Conclusions In the context of an ambitious 2051 growth forecast for York Region, averaging 1.6% average annual growth per year, Aurora’s allotted share is more moderate at 1.1% annually. Aurora’s average annual forecast employment growth is slightly higher, and closer to the Regional average, at 1.2% average annual (compared to 1.4% Regionally). The result is reasonable 2051 growth forecasts for Aurora of 84,900 persons and 41,000 jobs. Although these figures are 14,700 persons and 6,800 jobs higher than the 2031 planning horizon in the current Aurora Official Plan, the forecast horizon has been extended out by twenty years over which time Aurora is expected to continue growing. As greenfield opportunities for ground-related housing growth in Aurora continue to become scarcer, densities of 55 people and jobs per hectare are projected to reflect Page 24 of 295 May 18, 2021 6 of 6 Report No. PDS21-053 similarly to the 2C Secondary Plan which includes a mixture of ground floor housing and mid rise apartments. Additionally, reflecting the 45% intensification target, more growth will be directed to key locations within Aurora’s Built-Up Area. Attachments Attachment 1 - Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment, March 18, 2021 Previous Reports PDS20-031, Regional MCR Update: Employment Land Conversions and Employment Land Mapping in Aurora, November 17, 2020 PDS19-069, Regional MCR Update: Aurora Employment Land Conversion Requests, December 3 2019 PDS19-042, Regional MCR Update: Intensification Areas & Employment Land Conversion Requests, May 21 2019 Pre-submission Review Agenda Management Team review on April 29, 2021 Approvals Approved by David Waters, MCIP, RPP, PLE, Director, Planning and Development Services Approved by Doug Nadorozny, Chief Administrative Officer Page 25 of 295 1 The Regional Municipality of York Regional Council Planning and Economic Development March 18, 2021 Report of the Commissioner of Corporate Services and Chief Planner Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 1.Recommendations 1.Council direct staff to consult on the proposed forecast and land needs assessment as outlined in this report and attachments, including preliminary urban expansion mapping in Attachment 4, as part of the Municipal Comprehensive Review. 2.To support the highest share of growth in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to 2051, Council continue to advocate to senior levels of government for funding for the Yonge North Subway Extension and to expand the Region’s Bus Rapid Transit and enhance Regional GO rail systems to support transit integrated communities. 3.Following consultation on this report, staff report back on phasing policies necessary to manage growth over the 2051 planning horizon as part of the draft Regional Official Plan. 4.The Regional Clerk forward this report and attachments to the Clerks of the local municipalities and the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. 2.Summary A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) sets out population and employment forecasts and requires municipalities plan to achieve these forecasts by 2051. Part of this work includes determining if a settlement area boundary expansion is required to accommodate forecast growth. This report along with attachments 1 to 5 present land needs to 2051 as a result of completing the mandated provincial land needs assessment. Proposed population and employment forecasts by local municipality are presented for consultation as part of the Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR). This report is a summary of the content contained in Attachment 1 and provides an overview of the inputs, assumptions, and results of the provincial land needs assessment and distribution of population and employment to local municipalities. Key Points: The Growth Plan directs York Region to support and plan for the highest share of growth in the GTHA Attachment 1 Page 26 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 2  Provincial Land Needs Assessment results in a need for 3,400 hectares of urban expansion, or 80% of the remaining W hitebelt, to accommodate growth to 2051  Urban expansion needs are distributed by local municipality in line with Growth Plan criteria, Regional Official Plan policies, and an assessment of costs, risks, and opportunities in each geographic area  Uncertainty regarding Provincial approval of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre and timing of its phased implementation are key considerations when distributing growth  Phasing infrastructure and development will be key to mitigate growth-related risks  Given the history of significant growth directed to York Region by the Province, all Whitebelt lands will eventually be required at some point in time beyond the 2051 planning horizon and identifying the remaining Whitebelt as Future Urban is a consideration  Consultation on the proposed forecast and land needs assessment will continue in Q2 and early Q3 in advance of a draft Regional Official Plan anticipated for Fall 2021 3. Background York Region has a history of supporting and attracting significant growth Planning for and managing growth is a complex process taking into consideration Provincial growth targets, planning policy, socio-economic and demographic factors, market trends, as well as financial and servicing factors. Integrated land use, infrastructure, and financial planning has been undertaken in the Region since the 1994 Official Plan. Since then, several updates to the Regional Official Plan, regional forecasts, infrastructure Master Plans, and Development Charges by-laws have taken place. To ensure York Region continues to support and attract growth, Regional Council has invested more than $4.8 billion in water and wastewater infrastructure and over $2.8 billion in transportation, transit and rapid transit infrastructure, over the past 15 years. The Provincial Growth Plan forecasts a population of 2.02 million and 990,000 jobs for York Region by 2051 The Growth Plan provides long-term direction to municipalities to plan for and manage growth, including where and how to grow, and includes population and employment forecasts upper- and single-tier municipalities must plan for. York Region is forecast to grow to a population of 2.02 million and 990,000 jobs by 2051. This represents growth of approximately 800,000 people and 345,000 jobs between 2021 and 2051. As shown in Figure 1, York Region is forecast to attract the highest share of growth of any Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) municipality by 2051, accounting for 22% of GTHA population growth. The Region is also forecast to accommodate 25% of employment growth. Page 27 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 3 Figure 1 Distribution of Historical and Forecast Growth by GTHA Municipality Given the magnitude of assigned growth, the MCR requires the Region to assess the distribution and trajectory of growth to ensure it proceeds in a financially sustainable manner. The current MCR has had greater emphasis on a collaborative and iterative approach to population and employment distribution wherein infrastructure capacity and timing considerations play a more prominent role in distributing provincial growth forecasts to local municipalities. The 2019 Growth and Infrastructure Alignment report provides a series of principles focused on a more integrated approach to growth management. Municipalities, including York Region, are required to use provincial forecasts and other policies in the Growth Plan predicated on building complete communities that are well integrated with infrastructure investment as the basis for land use planning and managing growth. Updating Regional forecasts to conform to the Growth Plan and distributing that growth to local municipalities are key components of the MCR. Mandated Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology determines the amount of land required to accommodate growth to 2051 Municipalities are required to use the provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology to determine land needs to 2051. The methodology defines components, such as achieving the Growth Plan minimum intensification target, that must be assessed when determining the quantity of land needed to accommodate forecasted growth, including the need for any urban expansion. The land needs assessment methodology does not determine the location of these lands, rather this is informed by criteria in the Growth Plan and policies in the Regional Official Plan. In addition to the Growth Plan, the Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, and Lake Simcoe Protection Plan provide direction on where and how municipalities can and cannot grow. The Region’s land needs assessment must conform with this provincial direction. Page 28 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 4 York Region has received 71 site-specific requests for urban expansion as well as requests from some municipalities Since the MCR began in 2014, prior to having to pause the process for significant Provincial policy updates, 71 written submissions have been received from landowners and consultants requesting re-designation of agricultural and rural land to allow for urban development. The Region has also received a Council resolution from the Town of East Gwillimbury requesting that the entirety of the Town’s W hitebelt lands be re-designated for urban uses as well as requests from the City of Richmond Hill and the Town of Whitchurch Stouffville to re- designate areas of the protected countryside of the Greenbelt. In addition, the Township of King provided comments to the Province regarding the re-designation of the protected countryside of the Greenbelt. A map of all requests for urban expansion received through the MCR is found in Attachment 2. York Region’s forecast and land needs assessment is informed by several Municipal Comprehensive Review reports Provincial plans and the land needs assessment are implemented by the Region through a MCR and Regional Official Plan update. Between 2019 and 2021, a series of background reports were presented to Council addressing Employment Area Conversions, Planning for Intensification, Planning for Employment, Housing Opportunities and Challenges, Major Transit Station Areas, Planning for Density in New Communities, Natural Systems Planning, Planning for Agriculture, Aligning Growth and Infrastructure and Climate Change. Based on the foundational direction from Provincial Plans, these reports have informed the proposed forecast and land needs assessment presented in this report. 4. Analysis Land needs assessment incorporates Growth Plan targets, policy objectives, and market demand As outlined by the land needs assessment methodology, components municipalities must consider when planning for growth include market demand, Growth Plan policy targets for intensification and greenfield density, accommodating all employment types, determining community and employment land needs based on a demand-supply analysis, and planning for infrastructure needed to build complete communities to 2051. To help inform the land needs assessment, Watson and Associates Economists Limited (Watson) was retained to undertake a detailed assessment of the Region’s housing market. With input from Watson, the forecasts are informed by historical market trends as well as recent building permit activity, active development applications, socio-economic and demographic trends, as well as the demand for both rental and ownership housing. A critical consideration in defining the future market demand also includes housing affordability. Page 29 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 5 Inputs and assumptions used in the Community Land Needs Assessment have been reviewed and supported by Watson Consulting Community lands account for a significant share of the Region’s settlement areas and are where the majority of residential, personal services, retail, cultural, recreational, and human services uses are located. The forecast for community lands is predicated on policy targets in the Growth Plan. Population growth of approximately 800,000 people between 2021 and 2051 is translated to growth of approximately 276,000 units. This unit growth is allocated to the Region’s geographic land use categories, as outlined and defined in Attachment 1. The Growth Plan 50% intensification target determines units directed to the built-up area, a small amount of growth is assumed in the rural area, and the remaining growth is assigned to the designated greenfield area (Table 1). Table 1 Housing Unit Forecast by Land Use Category (2021 – 2051) Land Use Category Housing Growth Growth Share Built-up area 138,000 50% Designated greenfield area 137,000 49% Rural area 1,000 <1% Total 276,000 100% Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Watson's Housing Foundational Analysis Report (Executive Summary in Attachment 3) was an input to the Region's structure type forecast to determine 2051 community land needs in the land needs assessment. As outlined in their report, Watson provided a review of the Region’s preliminary forecast to 2051 and commentary on the key assumptions. Watson has concluded that the Region’s structure type forecast and associated 50% intensification target and designated greenfield area density assumptions:  Recognize the long-term population forecast for the GTHA is aspirational and therefore appropriately supports York Region not exceeding the long term 2051 population forecast of 2.02 million  Reflect recent and anticipated shifts in residential building activity in York Region from low-density dwellings toward medium and high-density housing forms  Recognize that the aging population is likely to drive demand for a significant share of affordable higher-density rental and ownership housing  Appropriately consider the need to expand the supply of affordable home ownership options in medium-density housing, particularly entry-level townhouse products geared to low- and middle-income households Page 30 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 6 Growth Plan 50% intensification target supports Council’s infrastructure investment and is consistent with the York Region market A fundamental metric informing community land needs is the Growth Plan minimum 50% Region-wide intensification target which York Region must plan to achieve. In addition to being a requirement of the Growth Plan, past direction from Regional Council provides support to plan for the Growth Plan’s minimum intensification target. Planning for 50% intensification also supports Council’s priorities when managing and planning for growth in the Region’s centres and corridors by supporting investments in infrastructure, by offering a mix and range of affordable housing options in compact transit supportive communities, and by supporting market demand. The target further supports and builds on the Region’s economic development success by advancing the Region’s city building objectives and by helping attract new businesses and jobs for residents. Planning for half the Region’s growth in the existing built-up area demonstrates a continued commitment by the Region to intensification. Not only does it support past infrastructure investments, but it substantiates investments that will continue to be required to support growth to 2051. Being the only municipality in the Greater Toronto Area outside of Toronto with access to an existing and future subway and with over $3.2 billion having been invested in rapid transit infrastructure by all three levels of government over the past 15 years, York Region is well-positioned to achieve this target. Planning for 50% intensification positions the Region for a better return on this investment through development charges. A significant share of growth in intensification areas demonstrates to senior levels of government that York Region is invested in and committed to city building and sustainable transit-oriented development. York Region has significant potential to accommodate growth in the built-up area to meet or exceed the minimum 50% target. In planning for 78 Major Transit Station Areas, the Region has the potential to accommodate 505,000 people and 195,000 jobs or more in these locations. The planned growth potential for these areas significantly exceeds the forecast demand in the built-up area by 2051. Further, as of mid-2020, York Region had an estimated supply of 70,000 units under application in the built-up area. If built, these units would account for approximately 50% of the total forecast to 2051. An intensification rate of 50% is consistent with what the market has been delivering on an average basis since 2006. Achieving 50% intensification over a sustained period to 2051 does require a significant shift in family households (couples with or without kids, lone- parent, multi-family households) into medium and high-density structure types. Planning for a 50% intensification target provides for a balanced mix of ground-related and higher-density housing options for York Region residents. Moving forward, staff will carefully monitor the intensification rate, greenfield supply, and phasing of new communities to ensure the pace of growth is consistent with Regional Official Plan objectives while maintaining the Region’s financial sustainability. Watson has identified 50% intensification is appropriate over the long term Based on analysis from Watson and Associates (Attachment 3), a 50% housing intensification target appropriately reflects recent development trends, active residential Page 31 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 7 development plans, and evolving longer-term demographic and socioeconomic trends within York Region. Watson notes that the Region could exceed a 50% intensification target in the near to medium-term based on the current supply of active development applications. Once servicing constraints in the designated greenfield area, particularly across northern York Region have been addressed, the likelihood of achieving greater than 50% over the long term is less certain. Watson, therefore, conclude that a 50% allocation of housing growth to the built-up area is appropriate. Through their assessment of the Region’s forecast on housing affordability, Watson further identifies the appropriateness of the 50% intensification target in that it reflects a continued shift from low to medium- and high-density structure types across the GTHA. This shift, likely driven in part by growing affordability challenges in low density structure types, will continue to drive demand for a more diverse range of medium- and high-density options in the Region’s built-up area. Planning for higher-density rental and ownership units, particularly in areas supported by transit and with access to amenities, will also help support the growing number of seniors anticipated over the forecast horizon. Distribution of employment growth by type reflects the changing nature of employment The outlook for employment by type in the Region incorporates a range of anticipated economic and workplace changes over the coming decades. Future trends are discussed in the Region’s 2019 Planning for Employment background report. Considerations in the forecast to 2051 included an assessment of York Region’s historical and future growth shares by employment type within the GTHA market, as well as estimates of employment growth by sector based on varying degrees of economic shifts and levels of automation. Employment growth will be driven by continued shifts toward knowledge-based jobs, growth in eCommerce, and increases in work from home employment. Attachment 1 provides more detail on assumptions used to generate York Region’s employment forecast by type. The forecast employment by type results in the following distribution: Table 2 Employment Forecast by Type (2021 – 2051) Employment Type Job Growth Growth Share Major Office 92,000 26% Employment Area 128,000 37% Population Related 124,000 36% Rural 1,500 <1% Total 345,500 100% Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 32 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 8 Provincial Land Needs Assessment has determined a need for 3,400 hectares of urban expansion The key determinant for community and employment urban expansion needs is a demand supply analysis. A more detailed explanation of how urban expansion needs are determined is presented in Sections 4-6 of Attachment 1. A new component of the provincial methodology is for municipalities to consider additional lands beyond what is required by the demand-supply analysis in the form of a contingency. The intent is to account for long term vacancy and/or lands not being developed as planned over the 30-year horizon. For community lands, the forecast demand in the designated greenfield area (greenfield areas as shown in Attachment 1) is compared with the potential for development (supply) by 2051 within existing designated greenfield areas. Designated greenfield area supply is determined based on active development applications, secondary plans for vacant lands with no application, and an estimate for apartment growth in those areas. Compared to the demand of 137,000 units in Table 1, the Region’s designated greenfield area has an estimated supply potential of approximately 101,000 new units by 2051. Consistent with what the market is delivering as outlined in the June 2020 Planning for Densities in New Communities report, a density of 60 people and jobs or 17 units per hectare was used to translate urban expansion needs from units to land area. On the employment side, the determinant of an urban boundary expansion is a demand supply analysis in employment land areas. Employment area supply is informed by Council endorsed boundaries from October 2020 as a result of Council’s decisions on employment land conversion requests. Density assumptions on vacant lands and an estimate for employment growth within existing space then informed the potential for growth in approved employment areas. Compared to employment area demand of 128,000 jobs in Table 2, the Region’s employment areas have capacity for approximately 90,000 new jobs. Table 3 identifies the urban expansion lands needs resulting from applying the provincial land needs methodology. Table 3 Community and Employment Urban Expansion Land Needs to 2051 Geography Land Need (Hectares) Community Land 2,300 Employment Land 1,100 Total 3,400 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 33 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 9 Timing and delivery of infrastructure are key considerations informing both the pace and distribution of growth to 2051 Availability and timing of delivery of Regional infrastructure plays an important role informing the pace and distribution of growth to 2051, particularly in the short and medium term. As a result of significant investments made by Council over the last two decades, the Region can service population growth of approximately 223,000 people (or approximately 75,000 units) with infrastructure already in place. Capacity for growth exists in all nine local municipalities, within Centres and Corridors, as well as a number of greenfield communities throughout the Region. Planning to accommodate growth of approximately 800,000 people and 345,000 jobs over a 30-year planning horizon requires significant investment in new infrastructure. Major infrastructure projects required to accommodate growth to 2051 include upgrades to the York Durham Sewage System conveyance and pumping stations, the initial construction and future expansion of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, northeast and west Vaughan water and wastewater upgrades, as well as the Yonge north subway extension. The preliminary timing of these new large-scale projects has informed assumptions on the pace of growth to 2051. For example, projected timing for the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, northeast and northwest Vaughan projects, and the Yonge North Subway Extension informed an anticipated increase in the pace of growth overall as well as in the affected municipalities over the next decade and beyond. Upgrades to the Region’s transportation and transit network are essential to accommodate planned growth In addition to the Yonge North subway extension, a $5.6 billion investment scheduled to be operational by 2030, significant investments in roads, transit, and rapid transit is required to accommodate the provincial growth forecast for the Region. Based on a cursory analysis of growth to 2051, extensions to existing Highway 7 and Yonge Street Rapid Transit corridors as well as new Bus Rapid Transit infrastructure on Jane Street, Major Mackenzie Drive, and Leslie Street have been identified to serve the needs of both existing and future York Region residents. All of these bus rapid transit projects are currently unfunded and together translate to an estimated $5.4 billion in new transit infrastructure. Assuming, on a preliminary basis, an estimated Regional contribution of 27% (based on Yonge Subway extension and existing Public Transit Infrastructure Fund agreements in Ontario), approximately $1.4 billion of this cost is likely to be incurred by the Region. Timing and delivery of these projects will be important to achieve the Region’s 50% intensification target and to provide further opportunities for job growth and talent attraction in the Region. Particularly with the millennial workforce, access to transit and other amenities are necessary to attracting and maintaining talent. Funding from Senior levels of government will be essential to enhance the Region’s Bus Rapid Transit system through the projects listed above. Further expansions and upgrades to the GO rail network will also be important to support intensification as well as growth in greenfield and urban expansion areas to support transit integrated communities. Page 34 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 10 Planning for a designated greenfield area density target of 60 people and jobs per hectare reflects what the market is delivering and allows for more accurate infrastructure planning To forecast growth in the Region’s urban expansion areas, the designated greenfield area density has implications on infrastructure timing and delivery, determining pipe size, planning for new roads and road improvements, and estimating future transit ridership. It also has impacts on how the Region calculates development charge rates and estimating development charge revenue and tax levy growth. If planned growth and densities do not match market realities, development charge rates may not achieve effective cost recovery. For these reasons, it is important to be as accurate as possible about densities and associated growth anticipated in urban expansion areas. As illustrated in the June 2020 Planning for Density in New Communities report, recently built communities in the Region’s designated greenfield area are achieving an average of 62 people and jobs per hectare. Since the York Region market is delivering over 60 people and jobs per hectare in existing greenfield areas, assuming the minimum 50 density in the Growth Plan would not support infrastructure or financial planning compared to the market reality. Opportunities, costs, and potential risks influence the location of urban expansion Over the long term, all the Region’s W hitebelt lands will be needed to accommodate growth. Applying the Provincial land needs assessment methodology to the Region’s Growth Plan forecast has determined that approximately 80% of Whitebelt lands are needed for anticipated growth to 2051. Available Whitebelt lands are shown in Attachment 1 and consist of three distinct geographies in southeast, southwest, and northern York Region. In consultation with local municipal staff, these lands were classified into potential community and employment areas based on their connectivity to existing community/employment areas and prioritizing lands adjacent to or near existing or provincially planned 400 series highways for employment purposes. Considerations impacting the geographic distribution of urban expansion are discussed in detail in Section 6 of Attachment 1. Satisfying Growth Plan criteria, ensuring logical planning boundaries, building complete communities that provide for live and work opportunities, delivering fiscally sustainable infrastructure, and supporting the Regional structure are important considerations. A preliminary assessment of the costs, risks, and opportunities associated with each available geography is summarized below:  Regional water, wastewater, and transportation infrastructure costs per capita (at full buildout) of Whitebelt lands are lowest in the southeast ($4,600), higher in the southwest ($6,900), and highest in northern York Region ($7,600)  Growth in the southeast capitalizes on downstream water and wastewater infrastructure the Region has invested in over the last 10 years as well as access to the expanded Highway 404 and planned GO expansion.  Growth in the southwest also leverages the downstream water and wastewater infrastructure investment over the last 10 years. It also includes significant job growth Page 35 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 11 potential which builds on existing strengths in transportation/logistics along Highway 427 and the future GTA west corridor as well as recent GO rail expansion. That said, the timing of both residential and job growth in this location may be contingent on the timing of the GTA west corridor by the Province.  Growth in northern York Region may provide more affordable housing options than southern York Region, particularly for specific market segments such as young families and seniors. There is uncertainty surrounding the timing of the delivery of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre as the Region awaits approvals from the Province, and phased implementation of the Water Reclamation Centre is required to address full buildout of the remaining Whitebelt lands. Currently it is estimated that the Water Reclamation Centre would be in place by early 2028 (contingent on receiving approval no later than 2021) and an expansion would be required by the early 2040s, subject to a future Class Environmental Assessment.  Lands in north and central East Gwillimbury and in southeast York Region were identified as most suitable for agriculture  North York Region is located within the Lake Simcoe watershed. Since 2009, through the release of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan, the Province has been committed to protecting the ecological health and natural heritage of the watershed. Additional protection and mitigation measures are required in this portion of the Region. Based on this analysis, the proposed distribution of urban expansion is shown in Table 4. Detailed mapping is provided in Attachment 4. Site-specific requests for urban expansion were also considered - the results of which are presented in Attachment 2. Table 4 Proposed Urban Expansion by Municipality to 2051 (Hectares) Municipality Available Whitebelt Proposed Urban Expansion Community Land Employment Land East Gwillimbury 960 245 180 65 King 80 80 70 10 Markham 1,490 1,490 1,270 220 Vaughan 1,210 1,210 500 710 Whitchurch Stouffville 375 375 280 95 Total 4,115 3,400 2,300 1,100 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 36 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 12 Location of urban expansion lands to meet the 2051 forecast are proposed in a way that minimizes potential risks to the Region The proposed distribution of urban expansion lands (Table 4) reflects Growth Plan and Regional Official Plan criteria, as well as the assessment of costs, risks, and opportunities in each potential whitebelt geography. The proposed distribution:  Maximizes urban expansion in areas with higher certainty of timing of the provision of water and wastewater infrastructure  Provides well-located future employment lands along Highway 427, the planned GTA West Corridor, Highway 404, and adjacent to the ROPA 3 employment lands in Markham  Allows for the connection of the Green Lane Corridor, Sharon, and Holland Landing communities in East Gwillimbury  Aligns the amount of growth in northern York Region with the ability to deliver the multi-phase infrastructure required to support it thereby reducing potential misalignment of development charges collections over the forecast period  Supports ongoing agricultural uses to the extent possible given that lands in northern East Gwillimbury were identified as some of the most suitable remaining whitebelt lands for agricultural uses in the Region Timing and uncertainty of servicing in northern York Region is a key factor informing the distribution of urban expansion land needs to 2051 Growth in northern York Region is dependent on the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre. Conditional on timely provincial approvals, the Water Reclamation Centre is currently scheduled for completion in 2028 and will provide capacity for 90,000 people in East Gwillimbury and Northwest Newmarket while also freeing up capacity for growth in Newmarket and Aurora. The initial phase will service existing population as well as growth of approximately 45,000 people in East Gwillimbury’s existing urban area but does not provide capacity for growth in the Town’s Whitebelt lands. An expansion of the Water Reclamation Centre is anticipated in the early 2040s and will provide capacity for growth of an additional 45,000 people in East Gwillimbury and Newmarket. The expansion is also required to provide wastewater capacity for some Whitebelt lands. A further expansion of the plant is likely to be required to achieve full buildout of the remaining Whitebelt lands in the Town. Timing of this expansion is not yet known but is likely to occur beyond 2051. The timing and uncertainty surrounding the initial stage of Upper York as well as future expansions present significant risks to the Region and have resulted in the proposed higher levels of Whitebelt growth in southern York Region where infrastructure is more certain and less costly to meet the amount of growth required by the Land Needs Assessment. The proposed distribution of growth presented in Table 4 would not require the final expansion of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre (likely beyond 2051), a project estimated at $200 million. This distribution of growth also results in a more achievable growth Page 37 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 13 outlook for the Town of East Gwillimbury with respect to annual population growth and therefore allows the Region to plan for a more accurate recovery of development charges collections both within the 2051 horizon and beyond. Growth is contemplated only where permitted by Provincial Plans and in locations with existing or planned water-wastewater capacity Requests have been received from the City of Richmond Hill, Township of King, and Town of Whitchurch Stouffville requesting consideration of site-specific employment uses in the Protected Countryside of the Greenbelt. York Region’s Potential for Employment Lands along 400 Series Highways report from October 2020 provides further information on these requests. As discussed in a January 2021 memo, Provincial policy in the Greenbelt Plan and Oak Ridges Moraine Conversation Plan prohibits expanding settlement areas into the Protected Countryside of the Greenbelt. As such, these requests were not considered as part of the MCR. Further, the application of the Provincial Land Needs Assessment concludes that the Region can meet its employment land needs with existing urban lands and a portion of Whitebelt lands. Population and employment growth beyond the existing and planned infrastructure capacity in Nobleton and Mount Albert have also not been considered. Preliminary estimates indicate that expanding the water and wastewater capacity in Nobleton beyond the 10,800 people currently contemplated in an ongoing Environmental Assessment would be cost prohibitive, requiring an infrastructure investment in the range of $100 to $200 million. This would not be financially sustainable given the amount of additional growth that could be realized. In addition, at the time of writing this report, discussions were ongoing between landowners, Town of East Gwillimbury staff, and York Region staff regarding the potential to expand the servicing capacity in Mount Albert from 6,000 to 8,000 population. However, because no agreement has been reached with respect to whether such an expansion would be feasible, the current servicing capacity of 6,000 has been maintained for the purposes of the proposed forecast. Forecasts to 2051 for each local municipality reflect recent growth trends, Land Need Assessment urban expansion needs, vacant greenfield areas, and market demand for intensification Proposed 2051 population and employment forecasts for the nine local municipalities are shown in Table 5. Details on the method and background information used to prepare the forecasts is included in Section 8 of Attachment 1. The forecasts are the product of a number of assumptions based on recent demographic, market, and economic trends, housing and employment land supply, market demand for intensification, as well as regional and local policy. Regional staff have consulted with local municipal staff in preparation of the proposed forecasts and incorporated changes based on their feedback. Page 38 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 14 Table 5 2051 Population and Employment Forecasts by Local Municipality Municipality 2051 Population 2051 Employment Aurora 84,900 41,000 East Gwillimbury 105,100 37,400 Georgina 71,900 21,900 King 49,600 16,400 Markham 619,200 309,200 Newmarket 110,700 57,600 Richmond Hill 317,000 122,600 Vaughan 568,700 352,000 Whitchurch Stouffville 92,900 31,900 Total 2,020,000 990,000 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch The forecast update also includes proposed local municipal intensification targets, designated greenfield area density targets, and employment area density targets to 2051. These are found in Section 9 of Attachment 1. Through official plan updates, local municipalities are to plan to achieve these targets which are minimums. The Region’s forecast distributes intensification across the nine local municipalities based on reasonable assumptions however the market will ultimately determine actual growth. Local municipalities should plan for intensification areas recognizing existing and planned investments in transit. Addressing gaps in housing affordability through ownership and rental options will be important to meet the 2051 forecast As noted by Watson, shifting demographics and housing affordability continue to result in a greater proportion of growth occurring in GTHA Regions such as Durham and Peel and in municipalities outside of the GTHA such as Simcoe and Dufferin because of their ability to offer more affordable housing options. Watson has indicated that despite an anticipated shift in housing mix to medium and higher density forms of housing over the 2051 forecast horizon, housing affordability will continue to challenge the growth rate in York Region and could impact the Region’s ability to achieve its 2051 forecast. Despite identifying that a structure type mix shifting toward medium- and high-density structure types appropriately considers shifting demographic and affordability trends – particularly for young families and seniors, Watson identified a need for the Region to Page 39 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 15 increase its supply of medium-density housing, primarily entry-level townhouse products geared to low- and middle-income households. They also identified a significant need for rental housing over the 30-year horizon (close to 90,000 units) reinforcing the need for a comprehensive multi-stakeholder approach to increase the range and mix of affordable housing options. This builds on material presented to Council in January 2020 and will continue following the MCR. Affordability challenges and the need for significant increases in rental supply, infrastructure uncertainties that continue to exist in northern York Region, and recent slower than forecast growth rates highlight the importance of prudent growth management to mitigate potential impacts of slower than anticipated growth. Integrated growth management is necessary to mitigate growth-related risk Planning for growth to 2.02 million people and 990,000 jobs over a 30-year planning horizon will require integrated and agile growth management. Achieving provincial forecasts requires average annual growth of 26,100 people per year. As shown in Table 6, this figure exceeds short term historical average annual growth (2010-2020) in York Region and is slightly above longer-term averages over the past 35 years. Table 6 Forecast vs Historical Average Annual Population Growth Historical Short Term (2010-2020) Historical Long Term (1986-2020) 2051 Forecast 16,500 24,900 26,100 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch The Region’s fiscal capacity is strongly tied to the pace of growth. As a result, there are a number of financial risks associated with planning for growth and paying for required infrastructure. Slower than anticipated growth could have the following impacts:  Slower than anticipated cost recovery through development charges to pay down outstanding development charges debt and reduction in the amount of development charges revenue available to fund new infrastructure – for example a sustained 10% reduction in collections over ten years versus the forecast could require capital deferral of up to $300 million  Increased costs for operating infrastructure put in place too early to operate efficiently  Tax levy or rate increases for existing residents and businesses to support ongoing operation and maintain service levels  Reduction in contributions toward asset management reserves and insufficient funds for the Region’s future capital replacement and rehabilitation Page 40 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 16 Phasing of urban expansion and agile growth management will help maintain financial sustainability Integrated growth management requires a phased and agile approach to growth. This involves regularly re-aligning Regional plans, programs, and processes with the Region’s fiscal reality. Through MCRs every 5 to 10 years between now and 2051, Master Plan updates, and annual Capital Plan and budget reviews, there are opportunities to re-calibrate Regional plans and strategies with actual growth and development charges collections. Aligning capital spending with population thresholds targeted to specific years in the Capital Plan and capitalizing on existing infrastructure can help maintain borrowing capacity. Giving special consideration to projects which may have a shorter payback period is another consideration. Phasing is a tool to manage the timing and location of growth, particularly over the extensive 30-year planning horizon. Based on the distribution of growth to each municipality in Table 5, and assuming a 27% share of anticipated Regional rapid transit costs, an estimated $11.6 billion in new infrastructure would be needed by 2051. This means growth cannot happen everywhere at once. Through a collaborative and iterative approach to land use planning in line with the timing and availability of infrastructure, the Region’s forecasts incorporate a phased approach to growth. The Region’s ability to adapt to the changing nature and pace of growth and further adjust and/or phase capital spending as necessary to maintain fiscal sustainability will be important. Phasing strategies for urban expansion areas will be enhanced in the draft Regional Official Plan and co-ordinated with infrastructure Master Plans The amount of urban expansion and associated population and employment growth to 2051 is unprecedented. To achieve its 2051 forecasts, York Region will be required to accommodate over 130,000 people and 50,000 jobs in new whitebelt areas. This is in addition to growth of 115,000 and 35,000 jobs in the Region’s 2031 new community areas that were brought into the urban boundary through the 2010 Regional Official Plan for which construction is just starting. Together, these growth areas consist of almost one third of the Region’s total growth to 2051 with most of these areas being dependant on new infrastructure. Ensuring this growth materializes in a controlled and phased manner will be critical to deliver complete communities for new residents with timely provision of services such as schools, libraries, community centres, and other personal services, in addition to roads, transit, and pipe infrastructure. It will also be important to support a return on previous infrastructure investments in the Region’s intensification areas. To properly manage this amount of growth across diverse geographies of the Region will require strong phasing policies in both Regional and local municipal Official Plans. A more detailed approach for phasing policies will be outlined in a third policy directions report in late Q2 2021. Preliminary considerations for phasing policies include staging urban expansion areas based on the alignment of capital spending, achievement of population thresholds, prioritizing areas which have a higher level of certainty to maximize return on investment, and a requirement to provide a logical progression of development. Consideration may also Page 41 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 17 be given to tying the timing of growth in urban expansion areas to the sustained achievement of the Region’s annual intensification target. Identifying the remaining Whitebelt as Future Urban beyond 2051 is a consideration With the Provincial Land Needs Assessment requiring 80% of the Region’s W hitebelt to accommodate growth to 2051, it may be appropriate to clarify that the remaining 20% of Whitebelt lands will likely be needed for future growth beyond 2051. Eighty percent to 2051 can be supplied by existing and planned infrastructure investments, and more closely matches the ability to recover growth-related costs through development charges in the future. This also acknowledges the final phase of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre will likely be required and is expected to be post 2051. Identifying the remaining 20% of the W hitebelt lands as “Future Urban” beyond 2051 acknowledges the reality of the future long-term function of these lands. It will be important for public agency partners to support growth to ensure complete communities Cooperation by other public agencies and the private sector will be necessary to achieve the 2051 forecast. The Province, local municipalities, the development industry, Metrolinx, conservation authorities, and the public are important stakeholders in supporting and managing growth. Fast-tracking critical infrastructure to support growth in the Region will require action by the Province. The overdue approval of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre is necessary to unlock population growth potential in northern York Region and required to accommodate the assigned growth to 2051. Continued funding for planned Bus Rapid Transit and Yonge North Subway Extension projects are necessary to accommodate higher-density growth in the Region’s urbanizing areas. The development industry can play an important role in mitigating financial risks to the Region by entering into prepaid development charges credit agreements in advance of Regional infrastructure in exchange for a development charges credit at the time of registration/site plan approval. This is one example of risk sharing the Region will consider moving forward. Consultation on the draft forecast and provincial land needs assessment results will occur in advance of the draft Regional Official Plan anticipated for Fall 2021 This report presents preliminary urban expansion mapping (Attachment 4) and population and employment forecasts by local municipality as a result of the 2051 Growth Plan forecast and outcome of the Provincial Land Needs Assessment. Over the spring and summer months, York Region staff will be consulting with local municipalities, the public, development industry, and other stakeholders on the information presented in this report. More detail on consultation is provide in Attachment 5. The Regional Official Plan update will continue over the coming months. Forecasts by local municipality and urban expansion mapping will be finalized and presented with the draft Regional Official Plan. Final forecasts are required to align infrastructure with forecast growth Page 42 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 18 through Water Wastewater and Transportation Master Plans and to inform an updated Development Charges By-law. 5. Financial Regional population and employment forecasts will be updated to conform to Provincial 2051 forecasts. The growth forecast will be used to inform the next update of the Regional development charges bylaw; the current bylaw is set to expire in mid-2022. The misalignment of growth forecasts with infrastructure delivery and the actual rate of growth could result in financial implications to the Region and local municipalities, including impacts to the development charges bylaw. Work associated with updated population and employment forecasts is included within the approved Planning and Economic Development budget. Consulting services from Watson and Associates Economists Limited to perform a Foundational Housing Analysis are being utilized as part of the approved MCR work plan and budget. 6. Local Impact The Region’s forecast and land needs assessment to 2051 have direct implications on local municipalities. As presented in Table 5, a key component of the MCR involves distributing updated population and employment forecasts to local municipalities. The results of the Provincial land needs assessment methodology identified a need for 3,400 hectares of urban expansion across five of the Region’s nine local municipalities. Local municipalities are key stakeholders in their forecast assignments and planning for future communities in growth areas. Local municipal staff are working alongside the Region to update local official plans to reflect the policies in the Regional Official Plan generated through the Regional MCR once approved. Under the Planning Act, local municipal official plans are required to be updated to conform to the Regional Official Plan within one year of it coming into effect. Detailed planning for urban expansion areas will be the responsibility of the local municipalities, in consultation with the Region. It remains important that the Region and local municipalities plan for these areas to be complete communities. 7. Conclusion Planning for and managing growth is a complex process that involves many considerations. Growth forecasts are developed and allocated to the Region’s nine local municipalities based on the Provincial Growth Plan growth targets, planning policy, demographic factors, market trends, as well as financial and servicing factors. Results of the Provincial land needs assessment methodology identify a need for 2,300 hectares of community land and 1,100 hectares of employment land to accommodate growth to 2051. This equates to approximately 80% of the Region’s Whitebelt lands. Page 43 of 295 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment 19 Planning for this growth will require a more focused and financially sustainable approach to managing growth and infrastructure delivery. Further, staging and phasing of capital investments in line with actual rather than forecast growth will be necessary for a more agile and coordinated approach to achieving the Region's long-term vision of building strong, caring, safe complete communities in a financially sustainable manner. For more information on this report, please contact Paul Bottomley at 1-877-464-9675 ext. 71530. Accessible formats or communication supports are available upon request. Recommended by: Paul Freeman, MCIP, RPP Chief Planner Dino Basso Commissioner of Corporate Services Approved for Submission: Bruce Macgregor Chief Administrative Officer March 5, 2021 Attachments (5) 12403557 Page 44 of 295 PROPOSED 2051 FORECAST and LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT MARCH 2021 ATTACHMENT 1 Page 45 of 295 i 1.0 SUMMARY A fundamental component of the Region’s Municipal Comprehensive Review is assessing land needs to accommodate Provincial Growth Plan population and employment forecasts for York Region to 2051 and the distribution of this growth by local municipality. A Place to Grow – Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020 (Growth Plan) requires the Region to update the Regional Official Plan to be consistent with the Schedule 3 forecasts and use the prescribed Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology. This report provides the background analysis for the Region’s draft forecast and land needs assessment. It also outlines a proposed integrated growth management strategy to align growth and infrastructure planning to 2051. This report: •Summarizes Provincial, Regional, and local municipal policy context for growth management •Discusses market considerations and affordability issues with respect to the Region’s housing forecast •Summarizes key assumptions, steps, and results of applying the Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology for both community and employment lands •Proposes a distribution of growth and locations for urban expansion required to accommodate population and employment growth to 2051 •Provides local municipal population and employment forecasts to 2051 •Proposes minimum local municipal residential intensification and designated greenfield area density targets •Proposes an integrated growth management strategy for aligning growth and infrastructure to maintain financial sustainability The report includes the following key findings: •York Region is well positioned to meet or exceed the Growth Plan minimum 50% intensification and 50 residents and jobs per hectare density targets •3,400 hectares of urban expansion are required to accommodate the Region’s forecast to 2051 based on the Provincial land needs assessment •The forecast meets the requirements of the Provincial Policy Statement, Growth Plan, and Regional Official Plan with respect to criteria for assessing locations for urban expansion while also minimizing growth-related risks to the Region •An integrated approach to growth management is needed. Focusing growth in areas with existing infrastructure capacity and phasing infrastructure projects needed to accommodate new growth will be important in maintaining financial sustainability. •Consultation on the proposed forecast and land needs assessment will occur in Q2 and early Q3 in advance of a draft Regional Official Plan anticipated for Fall 2021. Page 46 of 295 Contents 1.0 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. i 2.0 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Provincial Policy Context .................................................................................................. 1 2.2 Regional Policy Context .................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Local Municipal Context .................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Stakeholder Consultation .................................................................................................. 6 3.0 CONTEXT – GROWTH MANAGEMENT IN YORK REGION ............................................... 7 3.1 York Region has a strong foundation for accommodating growth ..................................... 7 3.2 Infrastructure alignment and fiscal sustainability ............................................................... 9 3.3 Market Considerations .....................................................................................................12 3.4 Housing Affordability ........................................................................................................14 3.5 Planning for Intensification and Density ...........................................................................16 4.0 PLANNING FOR POPULATION .........................................................................................18 4.1 Overview .........................................................................................................................18 4.2 Population and housing growth to 2051 ...........................................................................19 4.3 Determining community land need...................................................................................26 5.0 PLANNING FOR EMPLOYMENT .......................................................................................28 5.1 Overview .........................................................................................................................28 5.2 Employment growth by type to 2051 ................................................................................29 5.3 Determining employment land need ................................................................................32 6.0 URBAN EXPANSION CONSIDERATIONS .........................................................................34 6.1 Available lands for Urban Expansion ...............................................................................34 6.2 Site specific requests for urban expansion .......................................................................36 6.3 Considerations in developing options for urban expansion ..............................................36 6.4 Opportunities and risks associated with different urban expansion geographies ..............37 6.5 Proposed Distribution of Urban Expansion land needs to deliver the results of the Provincial Land Needs Assessment ......................................................................................40 7.0 KEY CONSIDERATIONS WHEN PLANNING TO ACHIEVE 2051 FORECASTS and MITIGATING GROWTH-RELATED RISK .................................................................................45 7.1 Balancing Council priorities, Growth Plan policy, and market objectives ..........................45 7.2 Integrating land use, infrastructure, and financial planning ..............................................46 7.3 Market considerations......................................................................................................51 Page 47 of 295 iii 7.4 Housing affordability ........................................................................................................53 8.0 LOCAL MUNICIPAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS TO 2051 .............56 8.1 Population forecasts to 2051 ...........................................................................................56 8.2 Employment forecasts to 2051 ........................................................................................61 9.0 INTENSIFICATION AND DENSITY TARGETS BY LOCAL MUNICIPALITY .......................66 9.1 Intensification Targets......................................................................................................66 9.2 Designated Greenfield Area Density Targets ...................................................................69 10.0 INTEGRATED APPROACH TO GROWTH MANAGEMENT .............................................70 10.1 Managing growth-related risks .......................................................................................70 10.2 Phasing and staging of growth .......................................................................................73 11.0 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS ................................................................................75 Page 48 of 295 1 2.0 BACKGROUND 2.1 Provincial Policy Context The Provincial Policy Statement directs municipalities to plan for efficient and fiscally responsible land use patterns The Provincial Policy Statement, 2020 (PPS) provides overall policy direction on matters of provincial interest related to land use and development in Ontario and applies to municipalities throughout Ontario, including the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), except where the Growth Plan or another provincial plan provides otherwise. The PPS provides policy direction on several growth management-related areas. These include: • Promoting efficient development and land use patterns which sustain the financial well- being of the Province and municipalities • Accommodating an appropriate affordable and market-based range and mix of residential housing types, employment, institutional, recreation, park and open space and other uses to meet long-term needs • Basing land use patterns within settlement areas on densities and a mix of land uses which efficiently use the available or planned infrastructure and public service facilities and avoid the need for their unjustified and/or uneconomical expansion • Planning for settlement areas that are transit supportive where transit exists, is planned, or may be developed, and that also support active transportation • Identifying appropriate locations and promoting opportunities for transit-supportive development and accommodating a significant supply and range of housing options through intensification and redevelopment based on availability of infrastructure. The Growth Plan provides Regional population and employment forecasts to 2051 The Growth Plan provides Provincial policy direction on how and where to grow. The Growth Plan identifies that the population and employment forecasts contained in Schedule 3 or such higher forecasts as established by upper- or single-tier municipalities in the GGH through a Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) be used for planning and managing growth to 2051. York Region is forecast to reach a population of 2.02 million and 990,000 jobs by 2051. The Growth Plan principles related to growth management that: • Support the achievement of complete communities • Prioritize intensification and higher densities in strategic growth areas to make efficient use of land and infrastructure and support transit viability • Support a range and mix of housing options to serve all sizes, incomes, and ages of households Page 49 of 295 2 • Improve the integration of land use planning with planning and investment in infrastructure and public service facilities Growth Plan intensification and density targets are inputs to the forecast and land needs assessment The Growth Plan establishes minimum intensification and density targets for upper and single- tier municipalities to support the achievement of growth management objectives for the GGH. York Region is required to plan for a minimum Region-wide intensification target of 50% and a minimum density target of 50 residents and jobs per hectare in the designated greenfield area. Figure 1 shows York Region land use categories. The built-up area must accommodate at least 50% of all new housing units constructed in the Region on an annual basis. By 2051, the density of designated greenfield and whitebelt areas (if required by the land needs assessment) must collectively meet a minimum density target of 50 residents and jobs per hectare. Figure 1 York Region Land Use Categories Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 50 of 295 3 York Region’s land needs are determined using the mandatory Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology In May 2018, the Province issued a standardized approach for assessing land needs in the form of the Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. A revised Land Needs Assessment Methodology was issued in August 2020, providing a common method to determine the quantity of land needed to accommodate forecast population and employment growth. It does not determine the location of any potential settlement area boundary expansions. All upper and single-tier municipalities in the GGH, including York Region, are required to use the Land Needs Assessment Methodology to determine land needs to 2051. Settlement area boundary expansions may only occur through a Municipal Comprehensive Review Under the Growth Plan, settlement area boundary expansions may only occur through a MCR where it has been demonstrated through applying the Provincial Land Needs Assessment that sufficient opportunities to accommodate forecasted growth are not available through intensification and through the designated greenfield area. In addition, a settlement area boundary expansion may occur in advance of a MCR subject to Growth Plan criteria, including the specification that the amount of the expansion is no larger than 40 hectares. York Region is currently undertaking its MCR, therefore, the latter policy is not applicable. The Province continues to forecast the highest share of growth to York Region among all municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe The Growth Plan forecasts continue to recognize York Region as a prime location for attracting significant population and employment growth. As shown in Figure 2, York Region is forecast to accommodate the highest share (22%) of population growth of any municipality in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over the 2016 to 2051 planning horizon. The forecasts build on the historical trend that saw York Region attract 27% of the GTHA's population growth between 1986 and 2016 – second only to Peel Region for that period. During the 2016 to 2051 period, York Region is also forecast to accommodate 25% of GTHA employment growth. Page 51 of 295 4 Figure 2 Distribution of historical and forecast growth by GTHA municipality Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Similar to other municipalities in the GTHA, population growth in York Region is anticipated to be driven by strong immigration to Canada. York Region is also anticipated to build on its economic success with its existing diverse economic base, healthy supply of employment lands, and investments in major transit infrastructure including the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension to Vaughan and the planned extension of the Yonge North Subway Extension to Richmond Hill. 2.2 Regional Policy Context Forecasts provide the foundation for infrastructure and financial planning Population and employment forecasts at the Regional, local municipal, and small area geography level (e.g. traffic zones) are used for a range of infrastructure and financial planning purposes. Growth forecasts, generated through an iterative process, are integral to ensure financially sustainable planning of water and wastewater and transportation infrastructure projects to accommodate growth in the Region, including the determination of required servicing capacity, timing, and location of projects. Costs associated with these projects along with forecasts of residential and non-residential development are used as inputs to the Region’s development charges background study and for projecting annual development charge revenue. The Region’s population and employment forecasts are also used for a wide range of Regional and local municipal service planning and programs. York Region’s forecast and land needs assessment are informed by other MCR studies The Growth Plan is implemented by York Region and other upper and single-tier municipalities through a MCR and Regional Official Plan update. Throughout 2019 and 2020, background Page 52 of 295 5 reports were presented to Regional Council on Employment Area Conversions, Planning for Intensification, Planning for Employment, Major Transit Station Areas, Planning for Density in New Communities, Natural Systems Planning, Planning for Agriculture, and Aligning Growth and Infrastructure. These reports have informed the proposed forecast and land needs assessment presented in this report. Vision 2051, the York Region Official Plan, and the Strategic Plan provide principles for forecasting growth in the Region Vision 2051 sets out the long-term blueprint for York Region’s future. A series of goals and actions inform decisions of Regional Council, corporate strategies, and the work of the Region. The eight goals areas in Vision 2051 articulate the vision for York Region in 2051. A number of these goal areas are related to growth management including: Liveable Cities and Complete Communities, Living Sustainably, Appropriate Housing for All Ages and Stages and an Innovation Economy, among others. The Regional Official Plan implements goals of Vision 2051, providing land use planning, resource protection, and growth management policies to guide how the Region will grow. The York Region Official Plan is based on achieving the triple bottom line objectives of fostering a sustainable natural environment, healthy communities, and economic vitality. Regional Official Plan policies, including those related to growth management and forecasting, are being updated as part of the MCR. Building upon the Regional Official Plan, the Region’s Strategic Plan 2019 to 2023 sets out four key priorities which also provide direction on how the Region should grow. These priorities include increasing economic prosperity, supporting community health, safety, and well-being, building sustainable communities and protecting the environment, and delivering trusted and efficient services. The principles embodied in the Regional Official Plan and Strategic Plan are reflected in the Region’s forecast and land needs assessment. 2.3 Local Municipal Context The Region distributes population and employment growth to local municipalities The Growth Plan population and employment forecast to 2051 is distributed by York Region to the nine local municipalities through the MCR and update of the Regional Official Plan. Local municipalities are required to update their official plans to be in conformity with the updated forecasts within one year of the Regional Official Plan being approved by the Province. This requirement emphasizes the need for continued collaboration between Regional and local municipal staff in developing the local municipal forecasts. Local municipalities must plan to achieve minimum intensification and density targets identified in the updated Regional Official Plan As part of the MCR, the Region assigns minimum intensification targets to each local municipality to contribute to the Region meeting the Growth Plan minimum 50% target. Local municipalities are required update intensification targets in official plans to be consistent with the new target and undertake any additional official plan and/or secondary plan updates that may be required in order to meet or exceed the minimum target. Page 53 of 295 6 The Growth Plan also requires that the Region assign a designated greenfield area density target to each local municipality to ensure the minimum 50 residents and jobs per hectare target is achieved in designated greenfield areas across the Region. This target will be incorporated into local municipal official plans and implemented through secondary plans, as required. 2.4 Stakeholder Consultation Local municipal forecasts were prepared in consultation with local municipalities, the building industry, and the Region’s Planning Advisory Committee Local Municipalities Local municipal staff were consulted on inputs and assumptions to the Region’s forecast and land needs assessment including: intensification and density assumptions, preliminary local municipal intensification targets, designated greenfield area housing supply, employment area conversions, employment area density targets, infrastructure planning opportunities and constraints, and urban expansion considerations. Consultations occurred through individual meetings and as part of the regular Regional MCR Local Municipal Working Group meetings. Several municipalities requested a higher local municipal intensification target while others expressed general agreement with the proposed targets. Some municipalities expressed the desire for higher population forecasts that would require servicing solutions beyond those currently contemplated as being financially sustainable. Other comments included the need to justify the Region-wide annual rate of growth to 2051 given the recent slow pace of growth, that the overall Regional intensification target is too low, and that the Region should prioritize infrastructure investment that provides capacity to local municipalities with the highest shares of intensification and greenfield growth. Some concern was also expressed with the concept of identifying lands not required for growth to 2051 as ‘Future Urban’, as discussed later in the report. In December 2019, Town of East Gwillimbury Council endorsed a report recommending the remainder of the whitebelt lands in the Town be included as Urban Area as part of the MCR in order to allow the Town to comprehensively plan for future employment and residential growth. Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) The development industry, through BILD, was consulted through the BILD York Region Chapter, BILD Advisory Group, and the BILD Technical Working Group where draft forecast assumptions were presented. BILD’s primary comment was the need to provide sufficient urban expansion land to provide a market-based range of housing types. There was general agreement on the concept of enhancing the alignment of growth and infrastructure to support the financial sustainability of the Region. Planning Advisory Committee Regional staff presented the draft forecast and Land Needs Assessment to the York Region Planning Advisory Committee on February 17, 2021. Planning Advisory Committee members Page 54 of 295 7 inquired about the potential for assuming a higher rate of intensification to capitalize on infrastructure investments and planned growth in Regional Centres and discussed how a diversity and inclusion lens could be applied to implementing and achieving 2051 forecasts. Extensive consultation on the proposed forecast and land needs assessment will take place following release of this report. Please see Attachment 5 for further details. 3.0 CONTEXT – GROWTH MANAGEMENT IN YORK REGION Population and job growth are fundamental to economic vitality and community well- being Population and job growth in the right locations are critical factors in developing complete communities that provide opportunities to live, work, learn, and play locally. Complete communities improve health outcomes, reduce impacts on the environment, and reduce reliance on personal vehicle use by offering improved transit access and greater active transportation. Communities that offer a mix of land uses and alternatives to the automobile offer optimal conditions to support employment growth and to attract highly skilled and talented employees. A region that can attract and keep high quality jobs across a range of sectors will enhance economic stability for the entire community and raise the overall standard of living. Population and employment growth also ensure financial stability by growing the tax base and financing high quality capital infrastructure and community services to improve the overall standard of living for residents. 3.1 York Region has a strong foundation for accommodating growth York Region has strategic locational advantages within the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to attract and retain population and employment growth York Region is one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada and is an integral part of the GTHA market area. York Region’s diverse communities, emerging urban centres, competitive industries, attractive natural environment, and strategic location in the GTHA continue to attract both population and employment growth. Attributes are listed below: • The Region benefits from core underlying demographic and economic attributes of strong population and employment growth, a highly educated labour force, and a high quality of living. In addition to being Ontario’s fastest growing large municipality and third largest business hub, York Region’s median household income ranks second only to Halton Region among all municipalities in Ontario (2016 Census). • The Region’s location in the GTHA is strategic from a goods movement perspective. York Region is within a one-day drive to the United States market with over 140 million people and a one-hour flight to global markets such as New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, and Detroit. It is located in close proximity to Toronto Pearson Airport, is home to both the CP intermodal facility and the CN MacMillan rail yard, and has a strong network of 400- series highways which connect the Region to both the broader provincial and national markets as well as the United States border. Page 55 of 295 8 • Transportation infrastructure such as the Viva Bus Rapid Transit system and Toronto- York Spadina Subway Extension to the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre (VMC) support significant office and residential construction. The future extension of the Yonge subway line to Richmond Hill, the anticipated arrival of two-way all day GO transit service, and continued construction on Bus Rapid Transit corridors will continue to be a catalyst for residential and office development in the Region’s Centres and Corridors. As the Region’s urban structure continues to evolve and the Regional Centres and Corridors mature, these core attributes will help maintain and promote continued competitiveness for York Region as a top location in the Greater Toronto Area. Regional Official Plan provides a policy framework for supporting and managing growth The 2010 Regional Official Plan provides a strong foundation for planning for population and employment growth in the Region by supporting a long-term vision for building healthy complete communities in a way that preserves the natural heritage and agricultural systems. Regional Official Plan policies have shaped the development of the Region’s residential communities through an urban structure based on centres and corridors surrounded by the urban area and a number of rural towns of villages as well as retail and commercial nodes and employment lands. Each of these areas play a role in accommodating forecasted growth. Policy directions in the Regional Official Plan fundamental to growth management include: • A planned urban structure anchored by centres and corridors that provides a focus for intensification, mixed use development, and live/work opportunities • Transit supportive and pedestrian oriented, complete communities • Protection of the Greenbelt, Oak Ridges Moraine, and a robust agricultural system • Transit investment to support intensification • Timely delivery of required water and wastewater infrastructure • Fiscal responsibility • Job creation to match labour force growth and protection of employment areas • Housing diversity and affordable housing to offer Regional residents housing choices and for attracting a diverse and skilled labour force Updates to the Regional Official Plan aim to build upon and strengthen the existing policy framework. Updates will address changes to the Growth Plan and reflect the changing nature of population and employment in the Region as a result of historical and future trends. Planning framework and pattern of growth has changed since the current Regional Official Plan was approved in 2010 Since the Regional Official Plan was last updated in 2010 with forecasts to 2031, a variety of trends and factors have changed pace and structure of growth in the Region. These factors include: Page 56 of 295 9 • The pace of population and employment growth in York Region has been slower in recent years than both the Growth Plan and Regional Official Plan anticipated. • External factors have resulted in a growth distribution across the Region that differs from what was forecast in 2010. For example, the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre has been delayed to 2028 at the earliest, impacting the timing of growth in East Gwillimbury, Newmarket, and Aurora. • The Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension completed in 2017 has resulted in unprecedented growth in the VMC, with current planning applications surpassing 2031 forecasts for this area. The Yonge North Subway Extension scheduled for completion in 2030 is anticipated to be a further catalyst for growth in the Region. • The introduction of Major Transit Station Areas through the Growth Plan has placed a greater emphasis on intensification and re-enforced the symbiotic relationship between transit investment and transit-oriented development. • As a result of several factors, the Region’s 2010 New Community Areas have only recently received secondary plan approval and most are ready to start delivering complete communities in the coming years, adding a significant amount of greenfield development opportunity. • While the Region has continued to see healthy levels of job growth over the last 10 years, there has not been the corresponding growth in new employment related construction in either employment areas or new office space. The City of Toronto has attracted a significant share of office development in the GTHA in recent years. • The continued emergence of e-commerce was expected but has been accelerated with the current COVID-19 crisis. E-commerce is changing the retail landscape across the GTHA and is also increasing demand for low density warehouse and distribution centres in employment areas. • The Region’s employment land base is under increased pressure for conversion to non- employment uses as evidenced by the 70 conversion requests received as part of the current MCR, 40 of which were approved by Regional Council in October 2020. 3.2 Infrastructure alignment and fiscal sustainability The municipal comprehensive review is a fully integrated initiative that aligns land use planning, infrastructure investment, and financial sustainability The Growth Plan requires growth management be undertaken through an integrated approach which coordinates land use, infrastructure, and financial planning. Infrastructure investment is leveraged by directing growth to intensification areas, delivering transit supportive densities and prioritizing servicing capacity in strategic growth areas. The distribution of growth should be supported by infrastructure master plans, watershed planning, and other relevant studies. These principles are translated into the Region’s forecast and land needs assessment to 2051 by implementing a comprehensive approach to land use planning which aims to optimize existing infrastructure and consider financial implications. Through the MCR, there has been Page 57 of 295 10 emphasis on a collaborative and iterative approach to population distribution and staging to align with infrastructure in a financially sustainable manner. Under this approach, infrastructure capacity and timing considerations play a prominent role in distributing provincial growth forecasts to the local municipalities. Integrated planning has been undertaken in York Region since 1994 The concept of comprehensive and integrated planning that incorporates infrastructure and financial planning considerations along with growth forecasts is not a new concept for York Region. Councils’ significant transportation, transit, water and wastewater infrastructure investments have led to the Region’s economic success and have set the stage for continued success moving forward. As shown in Figure 3, this includes updates to Regional forecasts, infrastructure Master Plans, and development charges background studies. Since 2006, this process has been guided by the Provincial Growth Plan forecasts and growth management policy directions. The MCR provides an opportunity to re-assess the Region’s growth trajectory and distribution to ensure that growth is financially sustainable. Figure 3 Integrated Planning in York Region Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch York Region has made significant water, wastewater, and transportation infrastructure investment to support growth Regional Council and federal, provincial, and local municipal governments have made significant investments in major infrastructure to support growth in York Region. As of 2020, the total replacement value of the Region’s assets was approximately $15 billion. As shown in Figure 4, over the past 15 years, the Region has invested more than $4.8 billion in water and wastewater infrastructure mainly for servicing growth, but also for asset rehabilitation and replacement. Optimizing the use of this existing infrastructure investment will create fiscal capacity to finance the additional infrastructure investment needed to support growth to 2051. Page 58 of 295 11 Figure 4 Infrastructure Investments 2005-2019 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Since 2005, the Region and third-party partners have also invested over $2.0 billion in road infrastructure and $3.7 billion in transit infrastructure, including York Region Transit capital improvements, the Bus Rapid Transit system, and the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension. These investments have acted as catalysts for growth in the Region’s Centers and Corridors, most notably in VMC. The Yonge North Subway Extension to Richmond Hill is another significant transit investment and will unlock the full development potential of Richmond Hill Centre, Langstaff Gateway, and southern Yonge Street corridor. Infrastructure investments have been fundamental to the Region’s economic success and support continued growth essential to maintaining fiscal sustainability The Region’s capital investments since the early 2000s, along with the long-range integrated planning, have formed the foundation for supporting significant growth. Between 2001 & 2019, employment increased by 270,000 jobs. The Region is also home to over 52,000 businesses including over 500 foreign companies. With over 4,300 Information and Communications Technology (ICT) companies, York Region is the second largest technology cluster in Canada, and largest on a per capita basis. As a result of these significant investments, the Region continues to have significant capacity for growth in the Region without requiring any new infrastructure. York Region can service 223,000 people (approximately 75,000 units) with this existing infrastructure already in place. Capacity for growth exists in all nine local municipalities as well as in key growth areas of the Region including Centres and Corridors and a number of greenfield communities. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Millions Environmental Services Transportation (York Region)Transportation (Prov/Fed/Other) Page 59 of 295 12 York Region is entering a mature state of growth While Council has committed significant investments to infrastructure, the Region has also been experiencing a lower than forecast rate of growth over the last number of years. To help keep growth affordable, a Fiscal Strategy was adopted in 2014 to address escalating debt stemming from lower growth than anticipated and the subsequent lower development charge revenues. Significant progress has been made in stabilizing the Regions' financial situation since instituting the Fiscal Strategy. Several growth-related projects have been deferred in recent years to better align with revised development charge collection forecasts. The annual budget process provides an opportunity for the Region to better align infrastructure projects with actual growth and development charges collections to mitigate the impacts of slower growth. If the Region continues to experience lower than forecast growth – a trend that may continue in the short term as a result of the current economic downturn associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – it is increasingly important to capitalize on existing infrastructure before making new investments and to stage investments according to the actual pace of growth. 3.3 Market Considerations Watson’s Foundational Housing Analysis provides recommendations on how to balance the market with policy objectives The Provincial Growth Plan, PPS, and Land Needs Assessment Methodology have placed greater emphasis on the role of the market and meeting market demand when determining housing forecasts to meet 2051 population forecasts. Watson & Associates Economists Limited (Watson) was retained to help understand the impact of the market on population growth. Their work was focused on assessing all factors impacting the Region’s recent and future rate of growth, including supply and demand factors, as well as housing affordability. An important consideration in the development of the 2051 forecast is the need to balance market demand, Provincial Growth Plan targets and policy objectives, housing supply, and housing affordability to help achieve the forecast and continue to work towards complete communities for the Region’s residents. Watson has undertaken a Foundational Housing Analysis for the Region. The analysis consisted of two deliverables: • A Preliminary Findings Brief discussing factors impacting recent slow growth in the Region and the link to housing affordability. • A Final Report which provided a review/commentary of the Region’s preliminary forecast in the context of the market and the potential impacts of affordability on the future market. This report also provided commentary on the opportunities and challenges with meeting 2051 forecasts and recommendations on how to balance market, housing affordability, and policy objectives in the Region’s work. Page 60 of 295 13 Foundational Housing Analysis identifies a number of factors and trends impacting the market which were important considerations in preparing updated forecasts Through their Preliminary Brief, Watson identified many factors currently influencing the housing market that were important considerations informing the Region’s updated forecasts and land needs assessment. The following were considerations for staff when preparing updated forecasts: • The long-term growth outlook remains positive • The housing market will continue to steadily shift from low-density to medium- and high- density housing forms • The Region’s major transit investments combined with planning and economic development initiatives will be key to the Region’s success related to intensification • Townhouses represent a more affordable option in the ground related market compared to detached homes as these products are an average of 40% less expensive. • Employment growth opportunities will be increasingly knowledge-driven • The aging population is putting downward pressure on population growth and labour force participation • Affordable housing supply constraints are impeding the Region’s growth outlook • Working with public and private partners to provide a more diverse supply of housing, including purpose-built rental housing options, will be important COVID-19 is likely to have profound near-term impacts as well as potential long-term impacts on the pace and nature of growth The recent impacts associated with COVID-19 on global and national economic conditions have been severe. Canada’s G.D.P. declined by approximately 39% in the second quarter of 2020 (April to June) and although job growth has since begun to recover, employment levels are expected to remain below pre-COVID levels until at least late 2021. Immigration levels to Canada are also anticipated to remain low because of travel restrictions. This has the potential to reduce population growth levels and soften the housing market in areas of Ontario where population growth is heavily dependent on immigration. Within the GGH, the City of Toronto, Peel Region, and York Region are likely to be the most heavily impacted. In addition to its broader impacts on the economy, COVID-19 is also anticipated to accelerate changes in work and commerce because of technological advances which were already occurring prior to the pandemic. These trends are anticipated to have a direct influence on commercial and industrial real estate needs over both the near and longer terms. In light of these anticipated trends, staff considered the likely impacts to the nature of employment in updated forecasts to 2051. That said, given the full impacts of the pandemic are unlikely to be known for some time, most adjustments were within forecast periods early in the planning horizon. Significant variations to both the pace and structure of population and employment growth were not contemplated. Page 61 of 295 14 3.4 Housing Affordability Annual Measuring and Monitoring shows York Region becoming increasingly unaffordable To apply the provincial definition of affordable for ownership purposes, household income is calculated at the 60th percentile to set the affordable housing threshold (i.e. the maximum house price that the lowest earning 60% of households can afford). The affordability of new ownership housing and the supply of new purpose-built rental housing is monitored annually. The 2019 monitoring report advised Council that only 11% of new ownership housing units were affordable, 99% of which were studio or 1-bedroom condominiums and not suitable for families. The report also advised that only 3% of new housing was classified as purpose built rental housing. In 2019 the affordable housing threshold was approximately $484,000. As shown in Figure 5, the average cost of all new housing types is greater than this threshold, and the gap between the affordable housing threshold and average market prices is a barrier to home ownership in York Region for many households. Figure 5 York Region Average House Prices(new), 2019 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Housing affordability was an important consideration in the development of the Region’s structure type forecast. Ensuring a range and mix of affordable housing options through both technical assumptions in the land needs assessment as well as implementation of plans and programs following the MCR will be important in the Region’s ability to achieve its 2051 forecast. Page 62 of 295 15 Watson has identified that a direct correlation can be drawn between housing affordability and slow growth Based on their research, Watson determined that a lack of housing options across York Region, most notably affordable low-density housing and purpose-built rental, has likely contributed to limiting the Region’s recent population growth. As shown in Figure 6, Watson have drawn a direct correlation between house prices and intra-provincial migration, traditionally a strong driver of population growth in York Region. Figure 6 York Region House Prices vs Net Intra-Provincial Migration, 2006-2019 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Key findings from Watson’s Preliminary Brief with respect to housing affordability include: • York Region has a declining share of residential development activity and is the only municipality in the GGH likely to experience a slower annual population growth rate between 2016 and 2021 compared to the previous 5-year period • Lower population growth in combination with the aging population has resulted in increased need to attract younger families for economic development purposes. The accommodation of a skilled labour force and attraction of new businesses are strongly linked and positively reinforce one another. • While there has been a decline in ground related development, high density ownership units have seen increased activity. That said, these units are generally smaller sized and may not be suitable for families. • The high-density rental market is limited by few new rental developments and low vacancy of existing rental units Page 63 of 295 16 • Durham Region and Simcoe County have the most affordable new single-detached homes in the broader regional market area, with average costs 54% and 40% of the average cost in York Region respectively, likely drawing demand from York Region for this product type • Townhouse units may provide more affordable ground related housing options, particularly in northern York Region. • Housing affordability is a key component of quality of place and directly linked to population and economic growth potential as well as municipal competitiveness. Through their Preliminary Brief, Watson identified that future growth and development opportunities may also be impacted by affordability challenges. Watson identified that addressing the interconnection between the Region’s competitive economic position and its longer-term housing needs by market segment is important in realizing the Region’s 2051 population and employment forecast. Potential impacts directly related to the Region’s 2051 forecast are explored further in Watson’s Final Report (Executive Summary in Attachment 3) and discussed in Section 7 below. 3.5 Planning for Intensification and Density Growth Plan 50% intensification target supports Council’s infrastructure investment and is consistent with the York Region market A fundamental metric informing community land needs is the Growth Plan minimum 50% Region-wide intensification target which York Region must plan to achieve. In addition to being a requirement of the Growth Plan, past direction from Regional Council provides support to plan for 50% intensification. Planning for 50% intensification also supports Council’s priorities when managing and planning for growth in the Region’s centres and corridors by supporting investments in infrastructure, by offering a mix and range of affordable housing options in compact transit supportive communities, and by supporting market demand. The target further supports and builds on the Region’s economic development success by advancing the Region’s city building objectives and by helping to attract new businesses and jobs for residents. Planning for half the Region’s growth in the existing built up area demonstrates a continued commitment by the Region to intensification. Not only does it support past infrastructure investments, but it substantiates investments that will continue to be required to support growth to 2051. Being the only municipality in the Greater Toronto Area outside of Toronto with access to an existing and future subway and with over $3.2 billion having been invested in rapid transit infrastructure by all three levels of government over the past 15 years, York Region is well- positioned to achieve this target. Planning for 50% intensification positions the Region for a better return on this investment through development charges. A significant share of growth in intensification areas also demonstrates to senior levels of government that York Region is invested in, and committed to, city building and sustainable transit-oriented development. York Region has significant potential to accommodate growth in the built-up area to meet or exceed the minimum 50% target. In planning for 78 Major Transit Station Areas, the Region has the potential to accommodate 505,000 people and 195,000 jobs or more in these locations. The Page 64 of 295 17 planned growth potential for these areas significantly exceeds the forecast demand in the built- up area by 2051. Further, as of mid-2020, York Region had an estimated supply of 70,000 units under application in the built-up area. If built, these units would account for approximately 50% of the total forecast to 2051. An intensification rate of 50% is consistent with what the market has been delivering on a sustained basis since 2006. Achieving 50% intensification over a sustained period to 2051 does require a significant shift in family households (couples with or without kids, lone-parent, multi- family households) into medium and high-density structure types. Planning for a 50% intensification target provides for a balanced mix of ground-related and higher-density housing options for York Region residents. Moving forward, staff will carefully monitor the intensification rate, greenfield supply, and phasing of new communities to ensure the pace of growth is consistent with Regional Official Plan objectives while maintaining the Region’s financial sustainability. Watson has identified 50% intensification is appropriate over the long term Based on analysis from Watson and Associates (Attachment 3), a 50% intensification target appropriately reflects recent development trends, active residential development plans, and evolving longer-term demographic and socioeconomic trends within York Region. Watson notes that the Region could exceed a 50% intensification target in the near to medium-term based on the current supply of active development applications. Once servicing constraints in the designated greenfield area, particularly across northern York Region have been addressed, the likelihood of achieving greater than 50% over the long term is less certain. Watson, therefore, conclude that a 50% allocation of housing growth to the built-up area is appropriate. Through their assessment of the Region’s forecast on housing affordability, Watson further identifies the appropriateness of the 50% intensification target in that it reflects a continued shift from low to medium and high-density structure types across the GTHA. This shift, likely driven in part by growing affordability challenges in low density structure types, will continue to drive demand for a more diverse range of medium- and high-density options in the Region’s built-up area. Planning for higher-density rental and ownership units, particularly in areas supported by transit and with access to amenities, will also help support the growing number of seniors anticipated over the forecast horizon. Planning for a designated greenfield area density target of 60 people and jobs per hectare reflects what the market is delivering and allows for more accurate infrastructure planning To forecast growth in the Region’s urban expansion areas, the designated greenfield area density has implications on infrastructure timing and delivery, determining pipe size, planning for new roads and road improvements, and estimating future transit ridership. It also has impacts on how the Region calculates development charge rates and estimates development charge revenue and tax levy growth. If planned growth and densities do not match market realities, development charge rates may not achieve effective cost recovery. For these reasons, it is important to be as accurate as possible about densities and associated growth anticipated in urban expansion areas. As illustrated in the June 2020 Planning for Density in New Page 65 of 295 18 Communities report, recently built communities in the Region’s designated greenfield area are achieving an average of 62 people and jobs per hectare. Since the York Region market is delivering over 60 people and jobs per hectare in existing greenfield areas, assuming the minimum 50 density in the Growth Plan, would not support infrastructure or financial planning compared to the market reality. 4.0 PLANNING FOR POPULATION 4.1 Overview Proposed forecast meets the land need determined by applying the Provincial Land Needs Assessment Methodology Municipalities are required to use the provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology in determining land needs to 2051. The methodology provides municipalities with the requirements that must be completed as part of the MCR to determine the total quantity of land needed to accommodate forecasted growth to the Plan horizon, including the need for any settlement area boundary expansions. The land needs assessment methodology does not determine the location of these lands. The location of urban expansion is determined by criteria in the Growth Plan and policies in the Regional Official Plan. The methodology provides municipalities with the key components as part of the land needs assessment process. These include considering market demand and Growth Plan policy targets for intensification and density, accommodating all employment types, determining community and employment land needs based on a demand-supply analysis, and planning for infrastructure that is needed to meet complete communities objectives to 2051. Community land need premised on achieving minimum intensification and density targets Community lands account for a significant share of the Region’s settlement areas and are where residential, personal services, retail, cultural, recreational, and human services uses are located. Determining whether additional land is required to accommodate growth to 2051 in community lands is a function of two key Growth Plan targets: • Minimum 50% intensification in the built-up area • Minimum of 50 people and jobs per hectare in the designated greenfield area The intensification target refers to the share of unit growth that is required to be accommodated in the built-up area (Figure 1) each year between the time the MCR is approved and 2051. A target of 50% is higher than the current Official Plan target of 40% but is consistent with what the Region has been achieving, on average, since 2006. The designated greenfield area density target reflects the minimum number of people and jobs that are required to be accommodated on a per hectare basis in the Region’s designated greenfield area. The Region’s existing Official Plan sets an overall designated greenfield area density target of 50 people and jobs per hectare and a 70 people and jobs per hectare density Page 66 of 295 19 target in New Community Areas, however this was based on a different provincial methodology applicable at that time. An important difference in the Growth Plan, 2019 is that designated greenfield area density is calculated only on community lands rather than a combined density on community and employment lands. This is a fundamental difference in the new methodology as densities in employment areas are traditionally lower than those in community areas. This change results in existing designated greenfield area densities being higher than those previously assumed in the 2010 Regional Official Plan. As a result, and at the direction of Regional Council, staff have reviewed the 70 people and jobs density target for new community areas and have used a density target of 60 people and jobs per hectare in New Community Areas for the purposes of land needs assessment. 60 people and jobs per hectare is what the market has been delivering in recently planned or developed communities. There are four key steps to assessing community land needs The Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology for determining community land needs can be broken down to the following four main tasks, outlined in Figure 7. Figure 7 Community Land Needs Assessment Methodology Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch 4.2 Population and housing growth to 2051 Housing unit growth required to accommodate 876,000 people by 2051 is informed by demographic inputs Overall population growth to reach the Region’s Growth Plan 2051 target is generated using the 2016 Census as the base year. According to Statistics Canada, the Region’s population was 1,144,000 in 2016, resulting in a forecast growth of 876,000 people by 2051. Determine population and associated housing growth to 2051 based on Growth Plan Schedule 3 Allocate housing growth to built-up area, designated greenfield area, and rural area Estimate supply potential in existing designated greenfield area using development applications and secondary plans Demand supply analysis -designated greenfield area demand vs designated greenfield area supply Page 67 of 295 20 To translate this growth into units, the Region uses the cohort (age group) survival method to age the population and calculate future growth based on assumptions related to fertility rates, mortality rates, and net migration. Among these factors, net migration is the most sensitive and will continue to play a key role in population growth in York Region and the broader GTHA. Age-specific household formation rates are then applied to the population by age in 2051 to estimate total housing demand. Different rates are used for family (couples with or without kids, lone-parent, multi-family households) and non-family (one person or two or more person non- census family households) households with an overall shift throughout the forecast to a higher share of non-family households in line with recent trends. Based on an observation that non-family household formation rates are generally lower in York Region than elsewhere in the GTHA, rates were assumed to increase (from an average of 6.5% to 9%) over the forecast horizon. Household growth by structure type balances market-based inputs and policy objectives York Region’s forecast by structure type considered several different inputs. While a housing propensity analysis based on 2016 housing demand by age and structure was used as the preliminary step in the analysis, these assumptions were adjusted based on recent trends. These trends have seen housing demand by age and structure type shift significantly over the past 10 years toward medium- and high-density structure types, particularly in younger age groups and likely influenced by housing affordability. The structure type forecast was further adjusted to account for recent building permit activity, short-and medium-term housing supply in the development pipeline, and finally long-term projected impacts of housing affordability and infrastructure investments on the Regin’s housing market. Table 1 displays the resulting structure type forecast. Table 1 York Region Household Forecast by Structure Type Period Singles Semis Rows Stacked Rows Apartments Duplex Total 2016 (actual) 228,000 22,100 44,400 2,200 (est) 45,700 14,500 356,900 2016-2051 (growth) 80,400 7,300 66,200 16,500 128,900 5,500 304,800 2051 (forecast) 308,400 29,400 110,600 18,700 174,600 20,000 661,700 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Consistent with the Region’s analysis, Watson confirms that while a housing demand analysis based on population age and housing structure type using baseline data from Statistics Canada represents a useful starting approach in developing long-term assumptions by structure type, a number of additional factors need to be considered. These include more recent (e.g. last 15 years) housing demand, housing affordability, housing demand by tenure (i.e. rental vs. ownership housing), lifestyle decisions, health, mobility, Regional infrastructure investments, as well as the Growth Plan minimum 50% intensification target and a designated greenfield area Page 68 of 295 21 target of 60 residents and jobs per hectare, both of which are consistent with what the market is currently delivering in York Region. Pace of growth determined by demographics, the market, and timing of infrastructure delivery While land needs are determined based on growth to 2051, an important component of York Region’s MCR forecast is to allocate growth by 5-year period both for infrastructure and fiscal planning purposes. A range of factors are considered in distributing growth by 5-year period between 2016 and 2051, including but not limited to, demographics, infrastructure timing, and market factors related to available residential supply. Population growth by five-year period is presented in Table 2. Historical growth has also been provided for context. Table 2 York Region Population Growth by Five-Year Period Period Population Growth 2006-2011 (historical) 133,000 2011-2016 78,700 2016-2021 (forecast) 82,600 2021-2026 105,300 2026-2031 115,700 2031-2036 132,100 2036-2041 138,400 2041-2046 150,600 2046-2051 151,400 Total (2016-2051) 876,100 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Growth to 2021 is based on estimates of housing development that has occurred since 2016 and units currently under construction. As a result of construction timing, ground-related and apartment units that will be occupied by mid-2021 are already under construction. As a result of the high level of certainty associated with unit growth to 2021, the first period of the forecast does not reflect the 50% intensification target, rather 55% to reflect actual growth and units that are built, under construction, and/or well advanced in the planning process. The timing of growth between 2021 and 2051 reflects expected increases in the level of migration over the forecast period – particularly beyond 2026 when major infrastructure projects are expected to release new growth areas in the Region. Major infrastructure projects expected to increase the pace of growth beyond 2031 include upgrades to the York Durham Sewage System conveyance and pumping stations and Duffin Creek treatment plant, the initial construction and future expansion of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, northeast and west Vaughan water and wastewater upgrades, as well as the Yonge North Subway Extension. Page 69 of 295 22 The anticipated timing and capacity of infrastructure delivery was a critical input to the Region’s housing forecast by 5-year period; however, it should be noted that preparation of Regional forecasts is an iterative process that may result in changes as infrastructure planning, including timing, is confirmed through Regional Master Plans. Given that the Region is now planning to a 2051 planning horizon, additional infrastructure will be needed beyond what was previously contemplated by Water and Wastewater and Transportation Master Plans. Household growth to 2051 reflects higher PPUs in new units An assumption in the Region’s forecast is a higher persons per unit (PPU) assumption for growth in new units. This approach is similar to the approach taken in Development Charges studies. The methodology also reflects a projected shift toward a greater number of families moving into higher density structure types. This shift is driven by affordability challenges that are likely to persist in ground-related structure types, increasing demand in the Region’s evolving Centres and Corridors, as well as the policy shift required to achieve the Growth Plan minimum 50% intensification target. In deriving PPU assumptions by structure type, key inputs include: • Observed growth in new units over the past 35 years based on Statistics Canada data • Detailed analysis of shifting occupancy patterns as input to predicting a reasonable estimate for higher density structure types A comparison of PPU in new units to 2051 with the previous 35-year average is provided in Table 3. An overall Regional PPU by structure type was generated prior to assessing geographic differences by local municipality. Local municipal PPU values were used to derive growth by local municipality shown in Section 8. Table 3 York Region PPU in new unit assumptions – historical and forecast Period Singles Semis Rows Stacked Rows Apartments Duplex 1981-2016 3.52 3.31 2.91 N/A 1.83 3.29 2016-2051 3.55 3.35 3.05 2.68 2.15 3.15 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch PPUs in new units for rows and apartments informed by analysis of composition of households While PPU in new low density (single, semi-detached units) were assumed to be consistent with historical trends, PPUs for new medium- and high-density structure types were informed by a detailed analysis of historical and future household composition. The analysis provided the following observations: • Non-family households, with lower PPUs, are assumed to continue to account for a large share of apartment growth. Page 70 of 295 23 • Family households consisting of couples without kids (many of which are likely to be seniors according to analysis from Watson) are likely to account for a more significant share of the shift to high density units than family households with kids. • Family households with kids were assumed to be more likely to shift from low density to medium density alternatives such as rows and stacked rows – more affordable options that continue to provide for more space than the average apartment unit. Supported by work from Watson, York Region’s PPU assumptions do not assume a significant decline in the existing base over the forecast horizon – a trend that diverges from what has been observed historically. A large driver of this assumption is as a result of the aging population. Just as this demographic is likely to increase demand for high density structure types over the forecast horizon as a result of health, mobility, and income needs, this same trend is likely to result in a number of low density units “turning over” to younger, larger families. As shown in Figure 8 from Watson, this trend has already been occurring over the past 15 years and is expected to continue throughout the forecast period. Watson estimates that upwards of 40,000 low density units may “turn over” during the 35-year planning horizon. Figure 8 York Region total housing growth by structure type associated with the “Baby Boomer” generation, 1996-2016 As a result of the assumptions above, and as shown in Table 3 above and Table 4 below, PPUs in new units and overall PPUs in medium and high-density structure types are expected to increase. The forecast assumes that a shift will occur that results in apartment units being occupied by 60% families compared to 50% today. Page 71 of 295 24 Table 4 York Region Average Persons per Unit Assumptions Period Singles Semis Rows Stacked Rows Apartments Duplex 2016 (actual) 3.37 3.23 2.89 N/A 1.82 3.05 2051 (forecast) 3.40 3.24 2.98 2.64 2.06 3.06 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Household growth is distributed by land use category in accordance with Growth Plan requirements Housing unit growth by structure type to 2051 is distributed to three land use categories in accordance with Growth Plan targets. Based on the Region’s monthly population estimates and units under construction as of 2020, the Region’s population is estimated at approximately 1,225,000 people in 2021, translating to growth of just under 800,000 people, or 276,000 units to 2051. Figure 9 provides a summary of the process as well as the result. The first step is to allocate 50% of forecast unit growth to the built-up area. Next, a small assumption is made in the rural area to reflect minor housing growth outside the settlement area. In the case of York Region, less than 1% of unit growth was assumed to be in the rural area. Finally, the remaining units in the forecast are assumed in the designated greenfield area. The designated greenfield area is the primary determinant of an urban expansion. Figure 9 Community Land Needs Assessment Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 72 of 295 25 Household growth by structure type in each land use category is informed by existing supply and Growth Plan and Regional Official Plan policy objectives Distribution by land use category varies by structure type and is informed by units under application, secondary plan estimates for greenfield and intensification areas, as well as the Region-wide minimum intensification target of 50%. The 2021-2051 distribution of growth by structure type and land use category is summarized in Table 5. Table 5 Unit Growth by Structure Type and Land Use Category (2021 – 2051) Land Use Category Singles Semis Rows Stacked Rows Apartments Duplex Total Built-up area 5,600 1,100 20,200 6,600 101,500 3,000 138,000 Designated greenfield area 62,900 5,600 39,400 9,600 17,500 2,000 137,000 Rural area 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 1,000 Total 69,500 6,700 59,600 16,200 119,000 5,000 276,000 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch While the built-up area is assumed to accommodate a significant share (85%) of the Region’s high density unit growth over the forecast period, the majority of the low density (singles & semis) unit growth (90%) is assumed in the designated greenfield area where more vacant land exists. Medium density units (rows, stacked rows, duplex) have been distributed throughout the Region. As identified by Watson, row units are the most affordable ground-related product in the Region. Delivering these units in both the built-up area and the designated greenfield area will therefore be important in delivering complete communities with housing more affordable to medium-income households. Unit growth by structure type in the designated greenfield area reflects planned growth through existing applications and approved secondary plans. The land needs assessment requires municipalities to estimate a 2051 buildout of the designated greenfield area. An assumption in the Region’s forecast is that while the majority of planned ground-related supply in the designated greenfield area supply is assumed to build out by 2051, just over 50% of apartments are assumed to be built and occupied by 2051. This assumption is driven by the fact that apartment growth is likely to be concentrated in the built-up area because access to rapid transit is more readily available. Approximately one in four units required to meet the 50% intensification target are projected to be ground related Despite a comparatively lower share of ground-related unit growth in the built-up area, the Region’s built up-area provides infill opportunities for both low and medium density units. For example, a number of golf courses in the Region are expected to redevelop over the forecast horizon, providing a significant volume of low and medium density units. Townhouse redevelopment projects are another form of redevelopment in the Region’s built up area that is becoming increasingly prominent. As such, over 25% of units required to meet the 50% intensification target are projected to be ground related. Page 73 of 295 26 Watson concludes the Region’s forecast by structure type and land use category is reasonable Through its review of the Region’s proposed forecast, Watson concluded that the Region’s structure type forecast of 27% low density, 30% medium density, and 43% high density is reasonable. They identified that the structure type forecast: • Appropriately recognizes recent shifts in residential building permit activity in York Region from low density dwellings toward medium and high-density housing forms. • Embraces further anticipated shifts toward medium and high-density residential development which are exhibited in active residential plans. • Recognizes that the aging population is likely to continue to drive demand for a significant share of high-density ownership housing demand associated with older seniors (75+) with lower household incomes. • Appropriately considers housing affordability risks and the need to expand the supply of affordable home ownership in the medium-density market as well as smaller, more compact grade-oriented housing including back-to-back and stacked townhouses in both build-up area and greenfield locations. 4.3 Determining community land need Demand supply analysis in designated greenfield area determines need for community land urban expansion A demand supply analysis undertaken in the designated greenfield area determines whether urban expansion is required to accommodate forecast growth to 2051. The minimum number of residents that can be accommodated in the existing designated greenfield area at the forecast horizon (supply) is determined independently of the demand. If the forecast demand exceeds the existing supply an urban expansion is required. The quantum of urban expansion required is determined based on the designated greenfield area density assumption. A new component of the provincial methodology is for municipalities to consider additional lands beyond what is required by the demand-supply analysis in the form of a contingency. The intent is to account for long term vacancy and/or lands not being developed as planned over the 30-year horizon. Existing designated greenfield area supply potential is based on development applications and approved local municipal secondary plans The following identifies the method undertaken to determine the minimum designated greenfield area supply: 1. Identify designated greenfield area as of July 1,2017 2. Identify lands deemed “undevelopable” in accordance with the Growth Plan (natural features, infrastructure corridors etc.) 3. Based on municipal supply information (existing base, plans of subdivision, secondary plans etc.) determine the minimum number of units already planned for on these lands Page 74 of 295 27 Community area jobs that are in the designated greenfield area also contribute to the achievement of the designated greenfield area density target. Density assumption for urban expansion areas is consistent with existing communities and current market trends To translate additional housing need required through urban expansion into the quantum of land required, a density assumption is used. As indicated in the Planning for Density in New Communities report in June 2020, 12 recently built or under construction communities in the Region’s designated greenfield area averaged approximately 62 residents and jobs per hectare as of 2016. As such, as articulated in that report, for the purposes of land needs assessment, Regional staff have assumed a density of 60 residents and jobs per hectare, or 17 units per hectare, in new community areas. Designated greenfield area demand supply analysis results in need for 2,300 hectares of community land to 2051 Comparing the forecast demand for designated greenfield areas with the 2051 estimated supply potential in the Region’s existing designated greenfield areas and applying the density assumption above yields the following results shown in Figure 10. A contingency assumption of approximately 200 hectares was then added to community area land needs to account for units that are planned but might not materialize over the 30-year horizon. Together, these assumptions result in a need for 2,300 hectares of community land by 2051. Figure 10 Determining Community Area Land Needs (2021-2051) Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 75 of 295 28 Overall designated greenfield area density target of 60 conforms with the Growth Plan and reflects the market As outlined in the June 2020 report, Planning for Density in New Communities, the Designated Greenfield Area is comprised of three categories: built areas, areas under construction or under application, and areas being planned including those areas with and without secondary plans (including urban expansion). The Region’s designated greenfield area density at 2051 is an output of a calculation that includes all three categories described above. By 2051, it is estimated that the Region’s entire designated greenfield area would be built at a density of approximately 60 residents and jobs per hectare. While this exceeds the minimum density target of 50 people and jobs per hectare required by the Growth Plan, it is consistent with what the market in the Region is currently delivering. 5.0 PLANNING FOR EMPLOYMENT 5.1 Overview This section of the report provides the growth forecast for employment for the Region, the distribution of employment growth by four types, and associated land needs. Schedule 3 in the Growth Plan forecasts 990,000 jobs for York Region by 2051. There are four key steps to assessing employment land needs The Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology for determining employment land needs can be broken down to the following four main tasks – outlined in Figure 11: Figure 11 Employment Land Needs Assessment Methodology Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Determine employment growth to 2051 based on Growth Plan Schedule 3 Allocate employment growth to employment area, major office, population-related, and rural employment categories Estimate supply potential in existing employment areas using density and intensification assumptions Demand supply analysis -Employment area demand vs employment area supply Page 76 of 295 29 Employment is forecast by four main types The Region’s employment forecast to 2051 is categorized into four employment types: employment area, major office, population-related, and rural employment. The focus of the Land Needs Assessment methodology, to determine if an urban expansion is required, is on employment area land needs. • Employment area: employment located in the Region’s proposed designated employment areas (as show in Figure 12 below), excluding major office employment. Employment area employment includes activities such as manufacturing, research and development, warehousing and ancillary retail, office, and service uses. • Major office: employment in freestanding office buildings 20,000 square feet or greater (excluding city or town halls, hospitals or school board offices and other local municipal serving office uses). • Population-related: jobs within existing and proposed settlement areas and outside of employment areas, except major office buildings, that serve the local population. This employment category includes retail, service, education, municipal government, community services, other institutional jobs, and home-based businesses. • Rural: jobs outside settlement areas and outside employment areas, including agricultural and rural-based jobs and incorporates a small component for home-based businesses. 5.2 Employment growth by type to 2051 Employment growth of 390,000 jobs to be allocated to four employment types between 2016 and 2051 The Land Needs Assessment methodology provides some flexibility in deriving the 2016 employment base. For York Region, the annual employment survey is the most comprehensive estimate of employment in 2016 and is used as the basis for determining employment growth to 2051. As such, a 2016 employment base of just under 600,000 jobs results in growth of approximately 390,000 jobs to reach the Growth Plan 2051 forecast of 990,000 jobs. Employment growth by type to 2051 reflects analysis on changing nature of employment Based on actual observed growth to 2019 and estimated changes in employment to 2021, employment in York Region is estimated at 645,000 jobs in 2021. This translates to growth of approximately 345,000 jobs between 2021 and 2051. The outlook for employment in the Region by type incorporates a range of anticipated economic and workplace changes. In generating forecasts for employment growth by type, a number of different factors and outcomes were considered. Many of these trends are outlined in more detail in the Region’s 2019 Planning for Employment background report. These include top- down considerations such as York Region’s historical market shares and shares of GTHA employment by type as well as bottom-up estimates of employment growth by sector based on varying degrees of economic shifts and levels of automation. The employment by type forecast is shown in Figure 12. Page 77 of 295 30 Figure 12 Employment Land Needs Assessment Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch At a high level, assumptions in the employment forecast are as follows: • A rising share of employment in major office to reflect the continued shift to service and knowledge-based jobs. This has, however, been tempered by the continued high share of growth in GTHA office employment growth occurring in Downtown Toronto in the short to medium term as well as a growing share of office activities within flex office space and repurposed industrial buildings. Major office employment is expected to increase over the forecast in line with the completion of the Yonge-North Subway Extension and the evolving strength of the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension, Regional Bus Rapid Transit, and GO network. • A relatively steady ratio of population-related employment to population as the demand for many services such as health care and education is anticipated to grow faster than employment overall, while retail growth is anticipated to slow as this sector continues to restructure as a result of e-Commerce. • A declining, yet significant, share of employment area employment. The forecast reflects decreasing overall shares of employment in goods-producing sectors such as manufacturing but is offset by the increasingly more diverse mix of employment uses in Page 78 of 295 31 employment areas, including growth in office activities through knowledge-based sectors in industrial condominiums. The employment area employment forecast also reflects expected rapid growth in warehouse and distribution centres as a result of e-Commerce but with low employment densities as a result of anticipated impacts of automation in this and other goods-producing sectors. • Increases in work from home and e-Commerce have been forecasted for many years. While COVID-19 may have accelerated and/or created a short-term shift in this regard, any potential long-term shift in trends require further analysis following recovery from the pandemic. Subsequent adjustments, as necessary, will be made through future municipal comprehensive reviews. • A declining share of employment in rural areas. Table 6 shows the change in the distribution of employment over forecast period. Table 6 Shares of York Region Total Employment by type Major Office Employment Area Population- Related Rural 2016 15% 39% 43% 3% 2051 20% 38% 40% 2% Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Timing of employment growth based on GTHA labour force, GTHA market, infrastructure delivery, and anticipated impacts of COVID-19 Similar to population, employment growth by five-year period is used to inform long term infrastructure and fiscal planning. The overall timing of employment growth in the Region is generally tied to the GTHA and York Region labour force and the pace of population growth anticipated in the Region. Other GTHA market-based factors and timing of infrastructure delivery also impact employment growth by employment type (major office, employment area, population-related, and rural). Timing estimates for major water wastewater infrastructure and future transportation corridors such as the GTHA west and Bradford Bypass inform the pace and geographic distribution of employment growth in the Region. Employment growth by five- year period is illustrated in Table 7: Page 79 of 295 32 Table 7 York Region Employment Growth by Employment Type by Five-Year Period Period Major Office Employment Land Population- Related Rural Total Growth 2006-2011 6,400 7,800 33,500 47,700 2011-2016 19,700 21,300 48,100 89,100 2016-21 10,500 18,700 15,900 400 45,500 2021-26 12,900 21,000 17,600 300 51,800 2026-31 12,500 20,000 17,300 300 50,100 2031-36 14,400 21,000 19,600 300 55,300 2036-41 15,900 21,400 21,100 300 58,700 2041-46 17,900 22,400 23,600 0 63,900 2046-51 18,400 23,000 24,300 0 65,700 Total 102,900 147,500 139,000 1,600 391,000 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch COVID-19 has had significant negative impacts on global and national economies. Particular economic sectors including travel and tourism, accommodation and food, manufacturing, and energy have felt the strongest impacts. As a result, employment growth in t he 2016-2021 forecast period was adjusted downward to account for these impacts. Employment levels in York Region are anticipated to recover back to 2019 levels by 2022. Employment growth is anticipated to increase as the economy recovers from the impacts of COVID-19, remain relatively stable, and then increase gradually after 2031 as a result of anticipated labour force trends and higher population growth forecast for these periods. 5.3 Determining employment land need Employment land needs are determined by undertaking a demand-supply analysis comparing the supply potential of the Region’s existing employment areas against employment area demand (Figure 12). Employment area supply potential is based on vacant land, an intensification assumption and takes account of Council endorsed employment area conversions The estimate of supply potential in the Region’s existing employment areas is based on the following factors: • Employment area boundaries in Figure 12, reflecting Regional Council decisions in October 2020 on employment area mapping and site-specific employment conversion requests. • Projected employment densities on vacant employment lands. Employment densities vary significantly in the Region and are a function of geographic location and the nature Page 80 of 295 33 of existing uses. Densities range from as low as 20 jobs per hectare in west Vaughan because of the presence of warehouse/distribution type uses to 85 jobs per hectare in higher density employment areas near Highway 7 and 404. Projected densities also considered approved secondary plans. • An intensification assumption has been made in employment areas, as required by the Growth Plan, to reflect job growth that occurs without absorption of new land. Based on detailed analysis, a conservative estimate of 10% of employment area employment growth is anticipated to occur within existing built space. This compares to close to 60% observed over the past five years as the economy recovered from the 2008/2009 recession. Additional potential has been assumed through new buildings or expansions to existing buildings on built parcels. • While it is a policy objective of the Regional Official Plan to direct major office development to the Region’s Centres and Corridors, a portion of the Region’s forecast major office growth is anticipated to occur in employment areas. The land area occupied by major office development is removed from the vacant employment area supply in the calculation of employment area supply potential. Approximately 1,100 hectares of urban expansion employment lands are required to 2051 Comparing the forecast demand in employment areas and the supply potential of the Region’s existing employment areas yields the following results shown in Figure 13 below. Figure 13 Determining Employment Land Needs (2021-2051) Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 81 of 295 34 Consistent with the Regional Official Plan, a density assumption of 40 jobs per hectare is assumed for any urban expansion employment areas that may be required. This density assumption reflects both the potential for lower density warehouse/distribution employment uses as well as future employment areas which will accommodate higher density employment uses including some office and service uses in industrial buildings. A contingency factor is also incorporated in the land needs assessment calculation to account for long-term vacancy. In total, there is a need for an additional 1,100 hectares of employment land by 2051. 6.0 URBAN EXPANSION CONSIDERATIONS The Provincial Land Needs Assessment determined that 2,300 hectares of community land and 1,100 hectares of employment land are required to accommodate growth in the Region to 2051. This section of the report assesses geographic options for urban expansion and recommends a proposed distribution. 6.1 Available lands for Urban Expansion York Region has approximately 4,100 developable hectares of available whitebelt lands Lands located outside the Region’s existing Urban Area and outside of the Greenbelt are available for urban expansion and are commonly referred to as ‘whitebelt’ lands. York Region has an estimated 4,100 developable hectares of whitebelt lands. Whitebelt lands in the Region are in East Gwillimbury, King, Markham, Vaughan, and Whitchurch-Stouffville. Whitebelt lands are identified for potential future community and employment uses In order to protect an appropriate ratio of employment and community lands to maintain the Region’s targeted activity rate (1 job for every 2 people), and in consultation with local municipal staff, whitebelt lands were classified into potential future community and employment areas. Considerations for locating future employment areas include proximity to existing and future 400 series highways, being contiguous with existing designated employment areas in the Region, distribution of expected population growth throughout the Region, and past York Region Council resolutions. For the identification of potential future community lands, factors include connectivity with existing and future community areas and areas being of sufficient size to allow for comprehensive planning. Potential future employment areas are comprised of the following areas – shown in Figure 14: • In Vaughan, future employment areas are identified in northwest Vaughan, building upon existing designated employment areas, the CP intermodal terminal, and the future GTA West Corridor and Highway 427 extension. This is consistent with a York Region Council resolution from November 2015 which requested staff report back on the merits of including remaining developable vacant lands in northwest for employment purposes as part of the MCR. • Potential future employment areas are also identified in Vaughan adjacent to the GTA West Corridor, just west of the Highway 400 North employment area. Page 82 of 295 35 • In King, a small area is identified for potential employment purposes fronting Highway 400 immediately north of the Highway 400 North employment area in Vaughan. • In Markham, a potential future employment area is identified north of Elgin Mills Road East and east of Warden Avenue, building upon the ROPA 3 employment lands immediately to the west. Identifying these lands for employment uses will help support significant population growth potential through community urban expansion lands in the City of Markham and increase live-work opportunities in southeast York Region. • Future employment lands are identified in Whitchurch-Stouffville immediately north of the ROPA 3 employment area and potential future employment area in Markham. • In East Gwillimbury, potential future employment areas are identified adjacent to the future Bradford By-Pass, along Highway 404, and a small section of Holland Landing, adjacent to an existing employment area. The remaining Whitebelt lands have been identified as potential community lands. Figure 14 Available Whitebelt Lands Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 83 of 295 36 Growth is contemplated only where permitted by Provincial Plans and in locations with existing or planned water-wastewater capacity Through the MCR, requests have been received from the City of Richmond Hill, Township of King, and Town of Whitchurch Stouffville requesting consideration of site-specific employment uses in the Protected Countryside of the Greenbelt. York Region’s Potential for Employment Lands along 400 Series Highways report from October 2020 provides further information on these requests. As discussed in a January 2021 memo, Provincial policy in the Greenbelt Plan and Oak Ridges Moraine Conversation Plan prohibits expanding settlement areas into the Protected Countryside of the Greenbelt. As such, these requests were not considered as part of the MCR. Further, the application of the Provincial Land Needs Assessment concludes that the Region can meet its employment land needs with existing urban lands and a portion of Whitebelt lands. Population and employment growth beyond the existing and planned infrastructure capacity in Nobleton and Mount Albert have also not been considered. Preliminary estimates indicate that expanding the water and wastewater capacity in Nobleton beyond the 10,800 people currently contemplated in an ongoing Environmental Assessment would be cost prohibitive, requiring an infrastructure investment in the range of $100 to $200 million. This would not be financially sustainable given the amount of additional growth that could be realized. In addition, at the time of writing this report, discussions were ongoing between landowners, Town of East Gwillimbury staff and York Region staff regarding the potential to expand the servicing capacity in Mount Albert from 6,000 to 8,000 population. However, because no agreement has been reached with respect to whether such an expansion would be feasible, the current servicing capacity of 6,000 has been maintained for the purposes of the proposed forecast. 6.2 Site specific requests for urban expansion Since the MCR began in 2014, 71 written submissions have been received from landowners and consultants requesting re-designation of agricultural and rural land to allow for urban development. The Region has also received a Council resolution from the Town of East Gwillimbury requesting that the entirety of the Town’s Whitebelt lands be re-designated for urban uses as well as requests from the City of Richmond Hill, Town of Whitchurch Stouffville, and Township of King to re-designate areas of the protected countryside. Submissions were reviewed and responses are provided in Attachment 2. Forty properties being requested for inclusion in the Urban Area are within the area proposed for urban expansion to accommodate residential and employment growth to 2051. 6.3 Considerations in developing options for urban expansion The need for approximately 2,300 hectares of community lands and 1,100 hectares of employment land equates to approximately 80% of total developable whitebelt lands in the Region. In determining the preferred configuration for urban expansion, several factors were considered, including: • Timing and availability of water/wastewater and transportation infrastructure • Financial impacts to the Region Page 84 of 295 37 • Contiguity with existing urban areas • Logical planning boundaries • Building complete communities that provide for both living and working opportunities • Protecting valuable agricultural areas • Supporting the Regional structure In time, all the Region’s whitebelt lands will be needed to accommodate growth in the Region. Planning for 80% of the whitebelt allows the Region to take a focused approach to planning for growth to 2051 and allows for leveraging of existing infrastructure investments, staging and phasing of new infrastructure, and growing in a financially sustainable manner. 6.4 Opportunities and risks associated with different urban expansion geographies The Region has three geographic areas that can accommodate urban expansion, each with associated costs, opportunities, and risks. Preliminary estimates for anticipated population, employment, and water and wastewater and transportation infrastructure costs (based on 2016 Master Plans) to support full buildout of each area are provided in Figure 15. This formed the basis for the preliminary assessment of how to distribute the 80% of the Whitebelt required to support growth to 2051. Figure 15 Costs*, Opportunities, and Risks Associated with Full Buildout of Different Urban Expansion Options Growth in Southeast Page 85 of 295 38 Opportunities: • Supports long-term BRT investment on Major Mackenzie, expanded Highway 404, GO expansion and arterial road investments • Leverages existing wastewater infrastructure investment - closest proximity to downstream water wastewater infrastructure in which the Region has made significant investments over the past two decades Risks: • Though prevalent across all of York Region, housing affordability poses a more significant risk in southern locations of the Region. The price of housing may present significant affordability challenges to market segments such as young families, which may impact the pace of growth and recovery of development charges in this location. Growth in Southwest Opportunities: • Builds upon existing strengths in transportation/warehousing in West Vaughan • Leverages strong employment growth potential along Highway 427 and the future GTA west corridor • Leverages existing downstream wastewater infrastructure investment made by the Region over the past two decades Page 86 of 295 39 Risks: • The amount of job growth potential in southwest York Region could take longer to materialize which may impact the pace of development charges collections • Similar to the southeast, housing affordability poses a more significant risk in southern locations of the Region • Some growth may be contingent upon the timing of the GTA west corridor Growth in North Opportunities: • Potential to provide more affordable housing options relative to southern York Region Risks: • Requires an entirely new investment in wastewater treatment infrastructure (Upper York Water Reclamation Centre) that will require multiple phases to achieve full population and employment buildout in East Gwillimbury • Timing of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre is uncertain and is contingent on approvals from the Provincial government • Future phases of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre will be contingent on a new Environmental Assessment and interim phosphorous monitoring • Fewer opportunities for higher order transit investment *Based on 2016 Master Plans Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 87 of 295 40 6.5 Proposed Distribution of Urban Expansion land needs to deliver the results of the Provincial Land Needs Assessment Based on the analysis in Sections 6.1 to 6.4, the proposed distribution of urban expansion is shown in Table 8. Detailed mapping is provided in Attachment 4. Site-specific requests for urban expansion were also considered - the results of which are presented in Attachment 2. Table 8 Proposed urban expansion land needs by municipality to 2051 (hectares) Municipality Available Whitebelt Proposed Urban Expansion Community Land Employment Land East Gwillimbury 960 245 180 65 King 80 80 70 10 Markham 1,490 1,490 1,270 220 Vaughan 1,210 1,210 500 710 Whitchurch Stouffville 375 375 280 95 Total 4,115 3,400 2,300 1,100 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Location of urban expansion lands required by the Provincial Land Needs Assessment to meet the 2051 forecast are proposed such that potential risk to the Region is minimized The three potential urban expansion geographies described in the previous section were assessed using the principles outlined in Section 6.3 of this report. The proposed distribution of urban expansion lands (Table 8) reflects Growth Plan and Regional Official Plan criteria, as well as an assessment of costs, risks, and opportunities in each potential whitebelt geography. The proposed distribution: • Maximizes urban expansion in areas with higher certainty of timing of the provision of water and wastewater infrastructure • Provides well-located future employment lands along Highway 427, the GTA West Corridor, Highway 404 and adjacent to the ROPA 3 employment lands • Allows for the connection of the Green Lane Corridor, and Holland Landing communities in East Gwillimbury • Aligns growth in northern York Region with the ability to deliver the multi-phase infrastructure required to support it by providing the opportunity for growth unlocked by new infrastructure to be realized within the forecast period to reduce potential misalignment of development charges collections within and beyond the forecast period. Page 88 of 295 41 • Supports ongoing agricultural uses to the extent possible given that lands in northern East Gwillimbury were identified as some of the most suitable remaining whitebelt lands for agricultural uses in the Region • Minimizes, to the extent possible, impacts on the Region’s agri-food network and agricultural operations, owing to the quantum of lands required Timing and uncertainty of servicing in northern York Region was a key factor informing the proposed distribution of urban expansion land needs to 2051 Growth in northern York Region is dependent on the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre. Conditional on timely provincial approvals, the Water Reclamation Centre is currently scheduled for completion in 2028 and will provide capacity for 90,000 people in East Gwillimbury and Northwest Newmarket while also freeing up capacity for growth in Newmarket and Aurora. The initial phase will service existing population as well as growth of approximately 45,000 people in East Gwillimbury’s existing urban area but does not provide capacity for growth in the Town’s Whitebelt lands. An expansion of the Water Reclamation Centre is anticipated in the early 2040s and will provide capacity for growth of an additional 45,000 people in East Gwillimbury and Newmarket. The expansion is also required to provide water wastewater capacity for some Whitebelt lands. A further expansion of the plant would be required to achieve full buildout of the remaining Whitebelt lands in the Town. Timing of this expansion is not yet known but is likely to occur beyond 2051. The timing and uncertainty surrounding the initial stage of Upper York as well as future expansions present significant risks to the Region and have resulted in the proposed higher levels of Whitebelt growth in southern York Region where infrastructure is more certain and less costly to meet the amount of growth required by the Land Needs Assessment. The proposed distribution of growth presented in Table 8 would not require the final expansion of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre (likely beyond 2051), a project estimated at $200 million. This distribution of growth also results in a more achievable growth outlook for the Town of East Gwillimbury with respect to annual population growth and therefore allows the Region to plan for a more accurate recovery of development charges collections both within the 2051 horizon and beyond. Growth Plan and Regional Official Plan urban expansion criteria are being met Both the Growth Plan and Reginal Official Plan contain criteria related to undertaking settlement area boundary expansions and considerations for locations for expansions. Section 2.2.8.2 of the Growth Plan requires that settlement area boundary expansions only occur through a MCR subject to the following conditions which have been addressed: • The need for a settlement area boundary expansion has been demonstrated through the forecast and land needs assessment outlined above which is consistent with the Provincial methodology. The forecast is based on the minimum intensification and reflects on the ground densities in the designated greenfield area (exceeding the minimum Growth Plan target). Page 89 of 295 42 • Sufficient opportunities are not available through intensification and in the current designated greenfield area to accommodate the required population and employment growth to 2051 • The proposed urban expansion will provide sufficient lands to accommodate growth not exceeding the 2051 planning horizon of the Growth Plan • The timing of the proposed expansion and phasing of development will not affect the achievement of intensification and density targets. The Growth Plan criteria for assessing locations for urban expansion as outlined in Section 2.2.8.3 are summarized below along with a brief description of how the recommended scenario meets each consideration. 1) Sufficient servicing capacity exists in existing or planned infrastructure and the expansion is financially viable • The planned infrastructure needed to accommodate growth in the Region to 2051 as described earlier in this report would be sufficient to service the proposed growth, including the urban expansion lands. • While preliminary analysis has been undertaken to assess infrastructure required to assess costs of growth, updates to the Region’s Water and Wastewater and Transportation Master Plans along with a future fiscal impact analysis of the Region’s growth forecast will address the financial viability of required infrastructure and public service facilities for urban expansion lands required to 2051. 2) Expansion is informed by the applicable water and wastewater master plans and stormwater master plans • The proposed forecast has been prepared in consultation with Regional staff from Environmental Services, Transportation, and Finance. As stated above, the water and wastewater master plan update process was recently initiated and will be consistent with the MCR forecast work. The Region does not prepare stormwater master plans as these are more appropriately undertaken at the secondary planning stage. • The Region will work in collaboration with Conservation Authorities and local municipalities to ensure the approach to Stormwater Management Plans utilizes best management practices that minimize and mitigate impacts to watersheds and water resources system. 3) Expansion, including the associated water, wastewater and stormwater servicing would be planned to avoid or minimize and mitigate any potential negative impacts on watershed conditions and the water resource system, including the quality and quantity of water. • The required water, wastewater, and stormwater servicing will be appropriately planned through the Master Plan update and the secondary planning process to avoid or minimize and mitigate any potential negative impacts on watershed Page 90 of 295 43 conditions and the water resource system. 4) Key hydrologic areas and the Natural Heritage System for the Growth Plan should be avoided where possible • The forecast accounts for Natural Heritage features and systems being protected from development in accordance with Provincial and Regional policies. • Key hydrologic areas and the Natural Heritage System for the Growth Plan will be protected in the detailed planning of urban expansion areas and will not be assumed to accommodate development. 5) Prime agricultural area should be avoided where possible • The majority of the Region’s whitebelt areas are prime agricultural lands; thereby making it impossible to avoid these lands as part of any urban expansion. The PPS provides further direction in this regard in Policy 1.1.3.8 by stating that if prime agricultural lands cannot be avoided, lower priority lands should be considered first. • As part of the Region’s MCR work undertaken in November 2015, a scoped agricultural assessment of the Region’s whitebelt areas was prepared by Planscape consultants. A high-level Land Evaluation Area Review (LEAR) analysis was undertaken consisting of a land evaluation assessing soil capability and an area review which considered criteria related to fragmentation, lands under production, and conflicting land use. Most of the lands not proposed to be part of the distribution of urban expansion (located in northern East Gwillimbury) had LEAR scores in the highest category. 6) Urban expansion area is in compliance with minimum distance separation formulae • Applicable minimum distance separation formulae would be applied through the more detailed secondary planning process to ensure appropriate separation of uses from livestock facilities. 7) Any adverse impacts on the agri-food network, including agricultural operations, would be avoided or if not possible, minimize and mitigated • Expansion of the urban boundary to accommodate growth to 2051 will result in impacts to the Region’s agri-food network and agricultural operations, owing to the quantum of lands required. Impacts, where possible, will be minimized and mitigated as determined through an agricultural impact assessment. 8) Policies in Sections 2 and 3 of the PPS are applied • Section 2 of the PPS deals with Building Strong Healthy Communities and contains policies related to efficient land use patterns, employment areas, housing, open space, infrastructure, energy conservation, air quality and climate change. Section 3 of the PPS addresses resource use and management including natural heritage, water, agriculture, minerals, mineral aggregate resources and cultural heritage and archaeology. Through meeting the requirements of the Growth Plan for the forecast Page 91 of 295 44 and lands needs assessment and the settlement area boundary expansion, many of the policy objectives of the PPS are also addressed. Other policy areas will be appropriately addressed through local municipal planning, including the secondary planning process, for the different urban expansion geographies. 9) Expansion would meet any applicable requirements of the Greenbelt, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation, Niagara Escarpment, and Lake Simcoe Protection Plans and any applicable source protection plan • Proposed distribution of urban expansion is consistent with policy directions in applicable Provincial Plans. • York Region’s growth needs to 2051 will be accommodated without intruding on lands identified for protection by Provincial Plans. • Through the Regional Official Plan review and the secondary planning process for urban expansion areas, appropriate municipal policy designations will be put in place to protect the water resource system and its functions. 10) Criteria for lands located within the protected Countryside in the Greenbelt Area • This requirement is not applicable as there are no lands being proposed to be brought into the Urban Area within the Protected Countryside Area of the Greenbelt. • The Provincial Growth Plan sets out very limited circumstances under which the Region can expand a settlement area boundary into the Protected Countryside Area of the Greenbelt Plan. In accordance with Provincial policy, the only opportunity to expand into the Protected Countryside through the MCR applies to existing Towns & Villages (i.e. not urban areas or Hamlets). In that instance, only a very limited expansion is permitted being up to 5% of the current land area of the Towns & Village’s designated area to a maximum of 10 hectares. • Expansions to Town and Villages are not contemplated to address growth to 2051. The Regional Official Plan also contains requirements for considering expansions of the Urban Area in Section 5.1.12. The proposed urban expansion meets these criteria as shown below: • The Regional Greenlands system will continue to be protected and proposed urban expansion areas are outside of the Greenbelt Plan Area boundary • Each urban expansion geography is of sufficient size and has clear and logical planning boundaries • Urban expansion geographies being proposed are contiguous with the Region’s existing Urban Area. • The infrastructure required to service the proposed urban expansion can be provided in a financially and environmentally sustainable manner through the adoption of an integrated approach to growth management that aligns growth and infrastructure and will be determined through master plan, capital planning, annual budget, and development charge background study processes. Page 92 of 295 45 • Proposed urban expansion areas support the Region’s urban structure in terms of the provision of well-located employment areas adjacent to 400 series highways and/or contiguity with existing designation employment areas. 7.0 KEY CONSIDERATIONS WHEN PLANNING TO ACHIEVE 2051 FORECASTS and MITIGATING GROWTH-RELATED RISK 7.1 Balancing Council priorities, Growth Plan policy, and market objectives Forecasts to 2051 achieve Council priorities, Growth Plan, and Regional Official Plan policy objectives, while balancing the market As outlined by the Land Needs Assessment Methodology, components that municipalities must consider when planning for growth include market demand, Growth Plan policy targets for intensification and density, accommodating all employment types, determining community and employment land needs based on a demand-supply analysis, and planning for infrastructure needed to build complete communities to 2051. The York Region Official Plan provides the foundation for delivering complete communities through a network of transit supportive Centres and Corridors to accommodate intensification, a diverse supply of high-quality employment opportunities, and sustainable greenfield communities with a mix of land uses and multi-modal transportation options. These objectives are predicated on achieving Council priorities of building strong, caring, safe communities, providing a balanced housing mix with affordable housing options, supporting investment in infrastructure, supporting continued economic development success, and protecting and enhancing the natural environment. The Region’s proposed forecast supports these objectives by: • Planning for a minimum 50% intensification to encourage a positive return on transit and water wastewater investment as well as to create high quality locations along Centres and Corridors critical for attracting talent, employment, and population growth • Directing a significant amount of population and employment growth towards the built up area, planning to continue to realize densities consistent with what the market is already delivering in new community areas or higher, and recommending 80% of the whitebelt be identified as urban expansion to 2051 (in line with the results of the Land Needs Assessment) to continue to protect the natural environment as well as ongoing agricultural uses. • Supporting ongoing agricultural uses to the extent possible given that the majority of the lands that are not part of the recommended allocation of urban expansion (located in northern East Gwillimbury) had LEAR scores in the highest category. • Phasing forecast growth in line with infrastructure timing. Page 93 of 295 46 • Continuing to plan for a broad mix of jobs while incorporating anticipated shifts in the nature of employment – including the potential for automation. • Planning to continue to deliver a balance of population and jobs in existing and new community areas throughout the Region. To help understand the market and inform the land needs assessment, Watson was retained to perform a detailed assessment of the housing market. Based on Watson’s review, the Region’s forecast to 2051 appropriately balances historical market trends (including recent slower than forecast growth) with recent building permit activity, active development applications, socio- economic, demographic, and migration trends as well as the demand for both rental and ownership housing. Based on a detailed review of the Region’s draft forecast from the perspective of housing affordability, Watson has also concluded that the Region’s structure type forecast and associated minimum 50% intensification and designated greenfield area density assumptions: • Recognize that unaffordability of housing in the GTHA relative to the GGH Outer Ring and a growing and strengthening economy across the GGH Outer Ring translates to the long-term population forecast for the GTHA being aspirational. In this context the Growth Plan 2019 population forecast for York Region of 2.02 million and 990,000 jobs is the preferred long-term growth outlook and a higher forecast is not a likely long-term outcome. • Reflect recent and projected shifts in residential building permit activity in York Region from low-density dwellings toward medium and high-density housing forms. • Recognize that the aging population is likely to continue to drive demand for a significant share of high-density rental and ownership housing options associated with older seniors (75+) with lower household incomes. • Appropriately consider the need to expand the supply of affordable home ownership options in medium-density housing, particularly entry-level townhouse products geared to low- and middle-income households. 7.2 Integrating land use, infrastructure, and financial planning Slower than forecasted growth poses a risk to being able to afford new infrastructure As mentioned in Section 3.0, maintaining fiscal sustainability is a Regional priority. The Region has made significant investments in infrastructure to support growth. York Region has also entered a mature stage of growth where a slower than forecast rate of growth has resulted in the need for a Fiscal Strategy which has taken steps to mitigate the impacts of slower growth. Core to the Fiscal Strategy is the need to better align infrastructure projects with actual growth and development charges collections. Development charges are critical to funding new infrastructure and paying down associated debt. It is important to understand that development charges fluctuate year over year as shown in Figure 16. That said, the Region is required to pay a certain amount of principal and interest Page 94 of 295 47 each year to pay down existing debt. The remaining amount of development charges collections is available to support new growth-related capital infrastructure. As illustrated by Figure 16, between 2010 and 2020, development charges averaged $285 million annually, enough to cover average annual principal and interest payments of $213 million. There were, however, some years where development charges collections fell below the required payment for principal and interest. Looking forward, the Region’s existing 10-year Capital Plan is based on an average development charges collection forecast of $370 million per year of which approximately 75% (or $330 million) is required to pay for principle and interest on existing debt. Even if growth materializes as expected, this only leaves approximately $40 million available each year to support new investments. The development charges collections forecast also shows that starting in 2026 there are several years where development charge collections could also fall below annual principal and interest payments. If this plays out as forecast, the early 2020’s could cover for the lower development charge collection years in the latter part of the decade. The Region’s ability to continue to invest in growth related infrastructure therefore requires development charge collections to exceed debt servicing costs on a sustained basis. Figure 16 Historic and Forecast Development Charge Collections and Principal and Interest If the existing trend of slower than projected growth continues, this poses a significant risk on the Region’s ability to afford new infrastructure. The average annual development charge collections forecast of $370 million is based on a growth rate of approximately 7,900 new residential units or 22,000 people per year over the next ten years. If that forecast is not Page 95 of 295 48 achieved, new growth-related infrastructure investments will need to be deferred. The following represent potential scenarios should growth not materialize as forecast on a sustained basis: • A sustained 10% reduction over a ten-year period could result in a need for the Region to defer new infrastructure projects in the order of $300 million. • A sustained 20% reduction over a ten-year period – a level of development activity consistent with that experienced in 2020 – would mean that development charges collections would not cover principle and interest payments on existing debt and development charges reserves would be required to borrow from other internal funding sources. It would also require deferring new infrastructure projects in the order of approximately $600 million. The risk of slower than forecast growth is therefore significant and has required careful consideration in the Region’s updated forecast and distribution of growth to the nine local municipalities. Significant investment in new infrastructure is required to support growth to 2051 and beyond As indicated in Section 6.4 above, to assess the impacts of the results of the land needs assessment and provide input to the proposed distribution of urban expansion lands for 80% of the whitebelt required to 2051, an exercise was completed to assess costs for building out all the whitebelt lands. The remaining 20% of the whitebelt lands not required by 2051 can accommodate an additional 75,000-100,000 people above and beyond the 2.02 million required by the Growth Plan. Assuming the full build out of all the whitebelt lands requires over $12 billion in new infrastructure based on a preliminary analysis. Included in this figure are projects identified in Table 9. While additional water and wastewater and transportation projects will be required, this table includes significant infrastructure investments required to support the next generation of growth in the Region over the 30-year planning horizon and beyond. A number of these projects are already in the Region’s Capital Plan, totaling approximately $4 billion. It should be noted that these are preliminary projects and costs based on best available data from the 2016 Water Wastewater Master Plan and the York Region Rapid Transit Corporation and are subject to change through updates to both the Water and Wastewater and Transportation Master Plans in late 2021/ 2022. That said, the relative expense of the various projects will not change significantly, and it was that relativity and the overall magnitude which were important considerations supporting the proposed forecast and urban expansion locations. Page 96 of 295 49 Table 9 Next Generation of Infrastructure Projects Needed to Service Growth Project Estimated Completion Date Preliminary Cost ($ millions) Water and Wastewater Duffin Creek Outfall Expansion 2021-2026 $15 Primary Trunk Twinning 2026-2031 $200 Duffin Creek Plant Expansion Unknown $700 Upper York Water Reclamation Centre 2026-2031 $640 Upper York Water Reclamation Centre Expansion Post 2041 $190 Upper York Water Reclamation Centre Final Expansion Unknown $200M Northeast Vaughan Servicing 2021-2026 $265 West Vaughan/ Peel Diversion Servicing 2026-2031 $310 North Markham Servicing 2031-2036 $90 New 14th Avenue sewer Unknown $240 Transit Yonge North Subway Extension 2026-2031 $5,600 (Total) $1,300 (Regional*) Highway 7 East Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Unfunded $437 (Total) $118 (Regional*) Highway 7 West Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Unfunded $297 (Total) $80 (Regional*) Jane Street Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Unfunded $313 (Total) $85 (Regional*) Leslie Street Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Unfunded $470 (Total) $127 (Regional*) Major Mackenzie Bus Rapid Transit Corridor Unfunded $1,250 (Total) $338 (Regional*) Yonge Street Bus Rapid Transit (Central York) Unfunded $713 (Total) $193 (Regional*) Yonge Street Bus Rapid Transit (North of Davis Drive) Unfunded $184 (Total) $50 (Regional*) Other Future BRT Unfunded $1,690 (Total) $455 (Regional*) *Regional share based on preliminary estimated 27% share of total cost – for discussion purposes at this time. Source: 2016 Water and Wastewater Plan and York Region Rapid Transit Corporation In addition to the $5.6 billion Yonge North Subway Extension, approximately $5.4 billion in bus rapid transit investment is required to accommodate growth to 2051. Successful implementation of these projects will require funding from senior levels of government. Further expansions and Page 97 of 295 50 upgrades to the GO rail network will also be important both in supporting urban expansion as well as accommodating growth in greenfield and whitebelt areas. The Regional contribution, if any, to bus rapid transit projects and to GO rail improvements such as grade separated road-rail crossings at Regional roads is unknown at this time. Assuming, on a preliminary basis, an estimated Regional contribution of 27% (based on the Yonge North Subway Extension and existing Public Transit Infrastructure Fund agreements in Ontario), approximately $1.4 billion of future Bus Rapid Transit costs is likely to be incurred by the Region. The Region should continue to advocate to senior levels of government for funding to enhance the Region’s Bus Rapid Transit system through the projects listed above. 50% intensification and proposed distribution of urban expansion results in cost savings and improves alignment of infrastructure delivery with anticipated return on investment The minimum 50% intensification assumption for growth to 2051 required by the Growth Plan and the pace of growth assumed in the Region’s proposed forecast support the principles in the Region’s Growth and Infrastructure Alignment report in that existing transit and water wastewater infrastructure is optimized, setting the stage for financially sustainable growth. The proposed forecast by five-year period considers recent infrastructure delays and trends in slower than previously forecasted growth and accordingly assumes a slower pace of growth in the short and medium-term. The pace of growth then increases over the medium-to long term as major infrastructure projects are anticipated to come online and unlock future growth potential. For example, anticipated delivery of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, northeast and northwest Vaughan projects, and the Yonge North Subway Extension within the next 10 years informed a forecast increase in both the pace of growth overall as well as in the affected municipalities in the late 2020s. Until such time, existing capacity for growth through existing infrastructure investments was an important consideration when allocating growth to the nine local municipalities to optimize return on past investments and recover development charges. The 50% intensification assumption required by the provincial land needs assessment also plays an important role in improving alignment with infrastructure and financial sustainability. Significant investments in both water and wastewater infrastructure have been made to support growth in the Region’s built-up area and more specifically in Centres and Corridors. Directing a significant share of growth to these areas through the draft forecast supports a positive return on this investment. It also positions the Region well to provide further opportunities for talent attraction in the Region. Particularly with the millennial workforce, access to transit and other amenities are critical to attracting and maintaining talent. Finally, with respect to allocation of urban expansion, the timing and uncertainty surrounding both for the initial stage of Upper York Water Reclamation Centre as well as future expansions present significant risks to the Region and have resulted in the proposed distribution for higher levels of Whitebelt growth in southern York Region where infrastructure is both more certain and less costly. The proposed distribution of growth presented in Table 8 would not require the final expansion of the Water Reclamation Centre (likely beyond 2051), a project estimated at $200 million, and would reduce the number of transportation projects required by 2051. Rather than Page 98 of 295 51 the over $12 billion referred to above, it is estimated that growth to 2051 could carry a preliminary cost of $11.6 billion. This distribution of growth also protects highly productive agricultural lands and results in a more achievable growth outlook for the Town of East Gwillimbury with respect to annual population growth. It therefore allows the Region to plan for a more accurate recovery of development charges collections both within the 2051 horizon and beyond. 7.3 Market considerations Shift in housing mix toward higher density housing forms reflects a continuation of recently observed shifts Inherent in the Region’s housing forecast to 2051 is a continued shift from low density to medium and high-density housing forms. While this shift considers recent trends over the past 15 years and existing applications in the development pipeline, it also reflects changing demographics throughout the Region. According to Watson, over the 2021 to 2051 forecast period, approximately two-thirds (55%) of future high-density housing demand in York Region is anticipated to be generated from households maintained by persons aged 75 years of age and older who typically have less disposable income compared to other segments of the working- age population. Despite the projected shift, ground-related units continue to be the dominant form of housing growth to 2051 and are anticipated to account for 74% of total units in 2051 compared to 87% in 2016. Intensification rate of 50% reflects recently observed trends and is aligned with recommendations from Watson As mentioned above and as shown in Figure 17, York Region is well positioned to meet or exceed its 50% intensification target to 2051. Since 2006, the Region has been averaging approximately 50% intensification, with rates averaging 55% over the last five years. Page 99 of 295 52 Figure 17 York Region historical intensification, 2006-2020 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch As shown in Table 9, the significant investments in water and wastewater and transit infrastructure anticipated over the forecast horizon also position the Region well for continued success. In addition to the $5.6 billion Yonge North Subway Extension, approximately $5.4 billion in total investment for additional Bus Rapid Transit has been identified on a preliminary basis to support growth to 2051. Federal and/or provincial funding will be required to support this investment. These investments are anticipated to act as significant catalysts for high density growth. In turn, planning to achieve intensification in these locations is critical to supporting these investments and recovering associated development charges infrastructure. Both the Growth Plan and Land Needs Assessment require that the ability to accommodate growth through intensification be identified in relation to the 50% intensification target. York Region has significant potential to accommodate growth in the built-up area to meet or exceed the minimum 50% target. In planning for 78 Major Transit Station Areas, York Region has the potential to accommodate minimum growth of 505,000 people and 195,000 jobs. While achievement of these targets is permitted to occur beyond 2051, the potential for growth in these areas significantly exceeds the forecast demand in the built-up area by 2051. Further, as of mid-2020, York Region had an estimated supply of 70,000 units under application in the built- up area. If built, these units would account for approximately 50% of the total forecast to 2051. Further, according to Watson, recent trends regarding residential building permit activity and active residential plans support the appropriateness of the York Region draft intensification forecast by structure type. Watson anticipates that the Region could exceed its 50% residential intensification target in the near to medium-term (i.e. next 5 to 10 years) based on the current supply of active development applications in registered unbuilt, draft approved and proposed plans. Watson does; however, note that as servicing constraints in the designated greenfield area, particularly across northern York Region, are addressed, a greater share of greenfield 60% 49% 42% 29% 39% 48% 57% 46%48% 58% 45%47% 59% 75% 59% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Annual Intensification (%)Page 100 of 295 53 housing development is anticipated. Over the long term, Watson identifies that a 50% allocation of housing growth to the built-up area is appropriate. An intensification rate of 50% is also supported from an affordability perspective. The price of housing is expected to continue to present affordability challenges for York Region residents – particularly for non-family households, young families, and seniors. Providing a more diverse range of medium and high density options in the Region’s built-up area, particularly in areas supported by transit and with access to amenities, will help support increasing demand likely to be driven by the growing number of seniors in the Region over the 30-year planning horizon. A balance of small and family sized high density units will be required to accommodate growth to 2051 In order to accommodate the growing shift toward high density structure types to 2051, the Region will need to work with the development community and local municipal partners to promote the development of both small (bachelor and 1-bedroom) and large (2+ bedroom units) condominium units. While smaller units will be important to accommodate non-family households, the growing seniors’ population, and low- to moderate- income households, larger units will be required to accommodate a growing number of families. As mentioned above, achieving 50% requires a modest shift in families into higher density structure types relative to the distribution today. Working with partners and building on existing financial incentives to build these units will be important to adequately house future residents in a manner which balances the market, policy objectives of the Growth Plan, as well as existing and planned investments in transit. 7.4 Housing affordability More affordable home ownership options, particularly in the form of medium density structure types, will be required to 2051 From a built-form perspective, while the forecast provides for a broader range of what are considered more affordable products through increased housing options anticipated in medium and high density structure types, Watson identifies that affordability is expected to remain a significant challenge for the Region to 2051. Based on a review of the Region’s draft forecast, Watson notes the following with respect to housing affordability: • While the potential supply of low-density housing is generally well-aligned with anticipated demand, low density ownership housing options are highly concentrated in high-income households that can afford premium priced homes priced above an average of $950,000. With respect to more affordable low-density housing needs, more market choice of housing will be needed for low-density units in the $650,000 to $950,000 price point to accommodate anticipated demand. • Relative to low-density households, York Region offers a greater supply of medium- density housing to accommodate anticipated demand associated with high-income households. That said, the Region has experienced a significant price appreciation in medium-density housing, making them increasingly unaffordable to middle-income families – the demographic in which the demand is greatest. Page 101 of 295 54 • While the need for condominium units is anticipated to be driven by a significant share of high-density ownership housing demand associated with older seniors (75+) with lower household incomes seeking smaller, traditionally more affordable units, condominium units are not anticipated to provide an affordable alternative for larger households seeking 3- to 4- bedroom units. • Without further initiatives to address housing affordability, the Region may have difficulty meeting its long-term population and housing forecast to 2051. Watson’s recommended actions are as follows: • Expand the supply of purpose-built rental housing across the Region. This includes a provision for affordable rental units catering to lower-income households. • Expand the supply of affordable home ownership in the medium-density market, targeting units priced below $650,000. This includes expanding the supply of smaller, more compact grade-oriented housing including entry level townhouses in both the built- up area and greenfield locations. • Expand the supply of low-density home ownership options priced between $650,000 and $950,000 by encouraging smaller detached homes. Following the MCR and building on the Housing Opportunities and Challenges report from January 2021, options to address housing affordability will continue to be explored with public and private partners. The need for rental, including purpose built rental, is expected to be significant to 2051 As shown in Figure 18, as of 2016, the share of rental housing in York Region was 14%, significantly lower than the GTHA average, excluding the City of Toronto, at 21%. According to Watson, York Region’s rental housing propensity rates (by age group) are expected to increase over the forecast period from 14% in 2016 to 22% in 2051. This assumption builds on the broader regional growth trends in the GTHA rental market as well as demographic and socio- economic trends. Page 102 of 295 55 Figure 18 Share of rental housing by GTHA municipality, 1991-2016 Source: Watson and Associates Based on Watson’s analysis, rental housing growth in York Region is expected to increase from 59,000 units in 2021 to 145,000 units in 2051. This represents growth of approximately 86,000 units, accounting for an estimated 32% of total housing growth over the forecast period. Rental housing need in the Region is expected to average 2,700 units per year over the 2021 to 2051 period, notably higher than the 1,800 units averaged over the 2006 to 2016 period. Watson further identifies that an increasing share of renter household growth, particularly in high density dwellings, will need to be accommodated through the primary rental market in the form of purpose-built rental. It is recommended that 40% of overall renter household growth over the 2021 to 2051 period be accommodated through the primary rental market including half (50%) of the high-density renter-occupied unit demand and 20% of the medium-density renter- occupied unit demand. This will require approximately 33,000 additional purpose-built rental units to be constructed over the 2021 to 2051 period to meet forecast demand representing an average annual increase of approximately 1,100 per year. To meet anticipated needs, purpose- built rental housing development activity across York Region will need to be approximately seven times greater over the next 30 years when compared to what has been provided across the Region over the past decade. Working with public and private partners to provide opportunities for rental housing, particularly in the form of purpose build rental, will therefore have a significant impact on the achievability of the Region’s forecast. Watson recognizes that significantly increasing the supply of rental housing in the market will likely require greater participation by the private-sector development community and non-profit organizations to construct purpose-built rental housing. Affordability presents a significant risk to the Region’s ability to achieve its 2051 forecast Watson have identified several potential risks if York Region’s housing supply is not well aligned with anticipated affordability needs of existing and future residents. If the Region is unable to address the housing affordability gaps, including satisfying the need for increased rental housing, the following outcomes are likely: Page 103 of 295 56 • An increasing share of lower-and middle-income households will need to spend greater than 30% of household income on shelter costs in York Region • Households may need to settle for housing arrangements that meet their affordability needs but do not necessarily meet their functional needs which may impact quality of life. This could include living arrangements in smaller than desired dwellings • An increased percentage of young adults would be expected to defer entry into the rental or ownership housing market, combined with an overall increase in multiple family/multi-generation living arrangements • A greater share of lower- and middle-income households will likely rent and not purchase, placing greater pressure on both the primary and secondary rental markets • An increasing share of lower-and middle- income households will need to spend a greater than 30% share of household income on shelter costs in York Region. • Households may consider less expensive housing options in other locations within the broader regional market area outside York Region. If the Region is unable to attract target market segments such as young families and seniors, the Region will have difficulty in meeting its long-term population and housing forecast to 2051. 8.0 LOCAL MUNICIPAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS TO 2051 8.1 Population forecasts to 2051 York Region housing growth is distributed to nine local municipalities Population growth is distributed to the nine local municipalities by structure type and policy area. Built-up area housing growth is distributed based on each local municipality’s intensification target (discussed in Section 9 of this report) as well as considerations related to historic and anticipated Regional market shares by housing type. Designated greenfield area and rural housing growth is distributed based on housing supply estimates and forecasts for rural growth by local municipality. Housing supply estimates are derived from planning applications and estimates of remaining development potential based on secondary plans. Population by local municipality is generated based on applying persons per unit assumption to forecast local municipal housing growth Consistent with the approach for the Region, local municipal population growth is determined by applying persons per unit assumptions against forecast housing growth by type. Persons per unit assumptions for ground-related housing growth are generally based on observed persons per unit in new units by local municipality over the last 35 years while high density persons per unit estimates are assumed to increase over time. The 2016 population base for each local municipality is declined at the same rate as the Regional assumption. Page 104 of 295 57 Infrastructure timing and market factors affect the timing of local municipal forecasts The capacity and timing associated with new infrastructure projects is a key input to forecast growth by local municipality. For example, anticipated timing for the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, northeast and northwest Vaughan projects, and the Yonge North Subway Extension informed an anticipated increase in the pace of growth in affected municipalities in the late 2020s. This is particularly true for Newmarket, Aurora, and East Gwillimbury where capacity for growth is currently limited in advance of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, currently scheduled for completion in 2028. Majority of Region’s population growth forecasted for Markham, Vaughan, and Richmond Hill Table 10 provides a summary of York Region’s proposed forecast by local municipality. Table 10 Proposed York Region Population Forecast by Local Municipality Municipality 2016 Population 2051 Population Growth Share of York Region Growth Average Annual Growth Rate Aurora 57,200 84,900 27,700 3% 1.1% East Gwillimbury 24,700 105,100 80,400 9% 4.2% Georgina 46,800 71,900 25,100 3% 1.2% King 25,300 49,600 24,300 3% 1.9% Markham 339,100 619,200 280,100 32% 1.7% Newmarket 86,800 110,700 23,900 3% 0.7% Richmond Hill 201,000 317,000 116,000 13% 1.3% Vaughan 315,700 568,700 253,000 29% 1.7% Whitchurch-Stouffville 47,300 92,900 45,600 5% 1.9% York Region 1,143,900 2,020,000 876,100 100% 1.6% Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Similar to historic trends (Figure 19), the majority of the Region’s population growth is forecast to be accommodated in Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill. This growth is assumed to include intensification in the Region’s Centres and Corridors and other intensification areas along with the build-out of major greenfield areas including ROPA 3 in Markham, ROPA 2 in Vaughan, and North Leslie in Richmond Hill, among other areas. East Gwillimbury will play a more significant role in accommodating population growth once the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre is completed. Page 105 of 295 58 Figure 19 Historic vs forecast growth by local municipality, 2001 - 2051 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch By 2051, all municipalities will experience growth beyond their 2031 Regional Official Plan forecast (Table 11). Overall, the updated 2031 population is lower than the current Regional Official Plan 2031 forecast. Consequently, a number of municipalities have lower 2031 population forecasts than the current ROP due recent levels of relatively slower growth and delays in the timing of servicing infrastructure. Table 11 York Region Population Forecast Comparison Municipality 2051 Population 2031 Population 2031 Population (ROP) Difference (2051 vs. 2031 ROP) Aurora 84,900 72,700 70,200 14,700 East Gwillimbury 105,100 59,300 86,500 18,600 Georgina 71,900 57,200 70,300 1,600 King 49,600 35,300 34,900 14,700 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Population Growth2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051 Page 106 of 295 59 Municipality 2051 Population 2031 Population 2031 Population (ROP) Difference (2051 vs. 2031 ROP) Markham 619,200 416,100 421,600 197,600 Newmarket 110,700 97,400 97,100 13,600 Richmond Hill 317,000 248,500 242,200 74,800 Vaughan 568,700 401,000 416,600 152,100 Whitchurch-Stouffville 92,900 60,300 60,600 32,300 York Region 2,020,000 1,447,800 1,500,000 520,000 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch The following is a summary of the highlights of the local municipal population forecasts. Aurora Aurora is forecast to reach a population of 84,900 by 2051. Primary sources of greenfield residential growth will be the build-out of the Aurora 2C and Aurora South secondary plan areas along with the anticipated development of the Aurora 2A secondary plan area in the longer term. Intensification is planned to occur within the Aurora Promenade, along the Yonge and Wellington Street corridors, including the Aurora GO Station. East Gwillimbury With the completion of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre, East Gwillimbury is forecast to grow to a population of 105,100 by 2051. Population growth is anticipated through the development of the Green Lane secondary plan and designated residential areas in Sharon, Queensville, and Holland Landing. As part of the proposed forecast there is also urban expansion in whitebelt areas adjacent to ROPA 1, south of Mount Albert Road and east of Highway 11. East Gwillimbury’s 2031 population is significantly lower than the current Regional Official Plan forecast due to the delay in the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre. Georgina Georgina is forecast to reach a population of 71,900 by 2051 with most of the growth occurring in the communities of Keswick and Sutton. The forecast for Sutton is based on the capacity of the planned expansion to the Sutton sewage treatment facility. Georgina’s 2031 forecast population is lower than the current Regional Official Plan 2031 forecast due to recent slower levels of growth than previously anticipated. King The population forecast of 49,600 for King Township is based on growth assumptions for the communities of Nobleton, King City, and Schomberg. The forecast assumes the current Environmental Assessment for water and wastewater servicing capacity expansion will be approved to allow Nobleton to reach a population of approximately 10,800. Growth beyond this figure in Nobleton was not contemplated in the Region’s MCR work because of the significant Page 107 of 295 60 cost (minimum $100 - $200 million) that would be required in addition to a number of environmental constraints. King City is forecast to grow to a population of approximately 20,000, which will require water and wastewater upgrades to Regional infrastructure to accommodate growth beyond the current limit of 15,000 people and would be contingent on addressing constraints in the York Durham Sewage System. Schomberg is forecast to experience modest growth to reach its servicing capacity of approximately 3,600 people. Markham Markham is forecast to accommodate the largest share of the Region’s population growth between 2016 and 2051. The ROPA 3 new community area along with Markham’s remaining whitebelt lands will be the primary locations for greenfield ground-related housing growth in the City. Significant levels of intensification are anticipated in Markham Centre and the Langstaff Gateway, along the Yonge corridor where the future Yonge North Subway Extension is being planned, the redevelopment of the York Downs golf course, and along other intensification corridors in the City. Markham’s population is forecast to reach over 619,200 by 2051, an increase of 280,100 from 2016. Newmarket Newmarket’s population growth will be increasingly achieved through intensification as the last remaining greenfield areas are built out in Northwest and Southeast Newmarket. Newmarket is forecast to reach a population of 110,700 by 2051. Most of the intensification growth is planned within the Newmarket Urban Centre secondary plan area along Yonge St and Davis Drive, including the Newmarket Urban Growth Centre. In the short term, growth in Newmarket will be constrained until completion of Phase 1 of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre. Richmond Hill The North Leslie and West Gormley areas along with the build-out of the Oak Ridges community will be the source of most of Richmond Hill’s remaining greenfield growth. A significant share of Richmond Hill’s population growth will be intensification, concentrated along the Yonge Corridor, including Richmond Hill Centre which is planned to be the terminal station for the Yonge Street subway extension. Richmond Hill is forecast to reach a population of 317,000 by 2051, up from 201,000 in 2016. Vaughan Vaughan is forecast to accommodate the second highest share of population growth in the Region (29%) with a 2051 population of 568,700. With the opening of the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension in late 2017, Vaughan Metropolitan Centre has been experiencing high levels of development activity with significant additional planned development. The future Yonge North Subway Extension is anticipated to contribute further to intensification growth in Vaughan along with areas of Highway 7 already served by bus rapid transit. The completion of the Northeast and West Vaughan wastewater servicing projects anticipated in the mid to late 2020’s will enable the full development of Blocks 27 and 41, increase capacity for growth in Kleinburg- Page 108 of 295 61 Nashville, and open up new areas in the Vaughan whitebelt for both community and employment purposes. Whitchurch-Stouffville Whitchurch-Stouffville is forecast to reach a population of 92,900 by 2051 with the majority of this growth occurring in the community of Stouffville. The development of the Phase 3 lands in Stouffville will be the main source of future greenfield housing supply, including the proposed Lincolnville MTSA along with proposed community urban expansion lands. The forecast takes account of two Minister’s Zoning Orders in the whitebelt, just west of the community of Stouffville which are proposed for a mix of low, medium, and high-density units. Requests to expand the settlement area boundary into the protected countryside of the Greenbelt have not been incorporated because growth there is restricted by Provincial plans. The community of Stouffville will continue to be the source of intensification growth, primarily along the Main Street corridor and the Stouffville GO MTSA. 8.2 Employment forecasts to 2051 York Region employment forecast is distributed by employment type to local municipalities based on potential for major office, available employment lands, and population related employment growth consistent with the distribution of population Forecast employment growth by local municipality and the overall timing of employment growth throughout the Region takes into account the availability and timing of major servicing infrastructure. The York Region employment forecast by type is distributed to the nine local municipalities based on the considerations below: • Major office employment Growth in major office is forecast to continue to be predominantly concentrated in Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill since new office development tends to gravitate to existing concentrations. An increasing share of major office employment is anticipated in the Region’s Centres and Corridors as compared to office development in employment areas, supported by recent major rapid transit investments including the Toronto-York Subway Extension to Vaughan Metropolitan Centre and the future Yonge North Subway Extension. Aurora, Newmarket, East Gwillimbury, King, and Whitchurch- Stouffville are forecast to attract smaller shares of major office growth. • Employment area employment The local municipal employment area employment forecast is based on forecast market demand and local municipal vacant employment land supply, including potential for intensification. To meet forecast Regional employment growth, 1,100 hectares of urban expansion employment lands are proposed in the locations shown in Attachment 4. • Population-related employment Population-related employment – schools, retail, services, government, other institutional employment and work-at-home – is forecast to grow in proportion to population growth. Regional serving population-related employment such as the new Vaughan hospital are allocated to the appropriate municipality. Page 109 of 295 62 • Rural employment A small share of the Region’s employment growth is forecast in rural areas. This was distributed to local municipalities based on the distribution of existing rural employment. Markham and Vaughan are forecast to accommodate nearly two thirds of the Region’s employment growth to 2051 Table 12 summarizes the total employment forecast by local municipality. Table 12 York Region Employment Forecast by Local Municipality Municipality 2016 Employment 2051 Employment Growth Share Average Annual Growth Rate Aurora 27,300 41,000 13,700 4% 1.2% East Gwillimbury 9,500 37,400 27,900 7% 4.0% Georgina 9,300 21,900 12,600 3% 2.5% King 9,600 16,400 6,800 2% 1.5% Markham 182,000 309,200 127,200 33% 1.5% Newmarket 45,000 57,600 12,600 3% 0.7% Richmond Hill 78,800 122,600 43,800 11% 1.3% Vaughan 223,200 352,000 129,800 33% 1.3% Whitchurch-Stouffville 15,400 31,900 16,500 4% 2.1% York Region 599,100 990,000 390,900 100% 1.4% Source: Planning and Economic Development Branch Markham and Vaughan are forecast to accommodate nearly two thirds of the Region’s employment growth to 2051 which is related to the large existing vacant employment land base in Vaughan, proposed urban expansion employment lands in Vaughan and Markham, the strong office market in both Markham and Vaughan, and the population-related employment growth that will accompany significant population growth. Table 13 compares forecast employment in 2031 and 2051 with the Regional Official Plan 2031 forecast by local municipality. A number of municipalities have lower 2031 employment forecasts compared to the current Regional Official Plan due to delays in the timing of infrastructure delivery and slower than anticipated population growth. All municipalities have higher 2051 employment figures than the Regional Official Plan employment forecast for 2031. Page 110 of 295 63 Table 13 York Region Employment Forecast Comparison Municipality 2051 Employment 2031 Employment 2031 Employment (ROP) Difference (2051 vs. 2031 ROP) Aurora 41,000 33,800 34,200 6,800 East Gwillimbury 37,400 16,800 34,400 3,000 Georgina 21,900 13,100 21,200 700 King 16,400 11,700 11,900 4,500 Markham 309,200 224,000 240,400 68,800 Newmarket 57,600 51,800 49,400 8,200 Richmond Hill 122,600 97,000 99,400 23,200 Vaughan 352,000 277,900 266,100 85,900 Whitchurch-Stouffville 31,900 20,300 23,000 8,900 York Region 990,000 746,400 780,000 210,000 Source: Planning and Economic Development Branch The following is a summary of the highlights of the employment forecast by local municipality. Aurora Aurora’s employment is forecast to grow by nearly 14,000 jobs from 2016 to 2051. Just over half of Aurora’s employment growth during this period is anticipated to be in employment areas, primarily in employment areas along the Highway 404 corridor. Population-related employment growth accounts for just over 30% of employment growth. New major office development comprises the remainder the Town’s employment growth and is expected to locate near the Highway 404 and Wellington area. East Gwillimbury Employment in East Gwillimbury is forecast to grow by nearly four times its 2016 level of approximately 9,500, reaching 37,400 by 2051, representing an average annual growth rate of 4%. Over half of East Gwillimbury’s employment growth is anticipated to be in employment areas, mainly in the ROPA 1 and Queensville employment areas along Highway 404 along with urban expansion employment lands. The majority of the remaining employment growth will be through population-related employment to serve the anticipated growth in population through development along Green Lane, in Queensville, Sharon, Holland Landing, and proposed urban expansion community lands. Georgina Employment in Georgina is forecast to grow by about 12,600 jobs with total employment projected at 21,900 by 2051. Nearly 70% of Georgina’s employment growth is anticipated to be Page 111 of 295 64 in employment areas, mainly in the Keswick Business Park. The remainder of Georgina’s employment growth will be through population-related employment. King King’s employment is projected to grow by nearly 6,800 jobs with nearly half of this growth through growth in employment areas in King City, Nobleton, and Schomberg, as well as a small area proposed urban expansion. Just over 40% of King’s employment growth is forecast to be in population-related employment which will serve the growing communities of King City and Nobleton. Markham Markham is forecast to continue to accommodate a significant share of York Region employment, accounting for approximately 33% of the Region’s growth from 2016 to 2051. Markham has traditionally been the primary centre for major office businesses in York Region and is projected to continue to play a major role in accommodating office employment. Major office employment is forecast to grow by just under 45,000 jobs from 2016 to 2051, representing a 44% share of the Region’s total major office growth. In addition to continuing to accommodate office employment growth in business parks along Highway 404; Markham Centre, Langstaff Gateway, and the Yonge corridor are anticipated to attract increasing shares of new office development, supported by recent and planned major transit investments including the Yonge North Subway Extension. Approximately 29% of Markham’s employment growth is forecast to be in employment areas, with a large share of this growth in the ROPA 3 employment area and proposed urban expansion area. The remaining employment growth in Markham will be population-related, a large share of which will be in centres and corridors to serve intensification residential development and in the proposed urban expansion community area in Northeast Markham. Newmarket Employment in Newmarket is forecast to increase by approximately 12,600 jobs between 2016 and 2051. Newmarket is anticipated to attract growth of just over 4,000 major office jobs over the forecast period, accommodated mainly in the Yonge Street and Davis Drive corridors. As Newmarket’s remaining vacant employment area supply is limited, employment area employment growth is projected to be approximately 3,500 jobs through development on vacant lands and intensification. The largest share of employment growth is anticipated to be population-related (40%), in step with projected growth in population. Richmond Hill Richmond Hill is forecast to continue to experience strong employment growth with total jobs anticipated to increase by approximately 43,800 jobs between 2016 and 2051. The Beaver Creek employment area currently forms part of the Region’s major office node at Highways 7 and 404. Major office will continue to account for significant employment growth in Richmond Hill, accounting for just under 16,000 new jobs. With the anticipated completion of the Yonge North Subway Extension in 2030, it is anticipated that a significant share of this growth will be Page 112 of 295 65 within Richmond Hill Centre. The largest share of employment growth (47%) is forecast to be population-related which will serve growth in population through intensification and remaining residential greenfield areas. Employment area employment growth is a relatively small share of Richmond Hill’s total employment growth (17%) as the remaining vacant employment area supply is largely consumed over the first half of the forecast period. Vaughan Vaughan is forecast to continue to accommodate a significant share of employment growth in the Region, accounting for 33% of total growth. Vaughan has traditionally accommodated the largest share of employment land employment in the Region, having an ample supply of well- located employment lands close to 400 series highways along with the CN Macmillan freight classification yard and CP Intermodal facility. Between 2016 and 2051, Vaughan is forecast to accommodate just under 40% of the Region’s total employment area employment growth through development of existing vacant lands and urban expansion lands in West Vaughan and along the future GTA West corridor. The Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension to the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre in 2017 has attracted new office development. Vaughan’s major office market is anticipated to continue to strengthen both in the Vaughn Metropolitan Centre and other transit supportive locations as well as in employment areas. Vaughan is second only to Markham in forecast major office employment growth, accommodating nearly one third of the Regional growth total. Vaughan’s remaining employment growth will be through population- related employment, including the new Vaughan hospital as well as education, retail, service and other institutional uses to serve intensification as well as greenfield areas. Whitchurch-Stouffville Employment in Whitchurch-Stouffville is forecast to grow by approximately 16,500 jobs between 2016 and 2051 with just under half of this growth in employment areas. The majority of the Town’s forecast employment area growth is anticipated to be through proposed urban expansion lands. Approximately 45% of the Town’s employment growth is anticipated to be through population-related employment, as a result of population growth in intensification areas and greenfield areas in the Community of Stouffville as well as the proposed community urban expansion area. Smaller shares of the Town’s employment growth are forecast through major office and rural employment. Local Municipal Activity Rates to remain fairly constant to 2051 An activity rate is the ratio of employment to residents. It provides a measure of economic sustainability by looking at the provision of employment opportunities in relation to the population of a community. The current Regional Official Plan has a policy goal of providing 1 job for every 2 residents, which equates to an activity rate of 50%. The Growth Plan forecast for York Region results in a Reginal activity rate of 49% by 2051. Figure 20 compares local municipal activity rates in 2016 and at 2051. Page 113 of 295 66 Figure 20 Local Municipal Activity Rate Comparison Source: Planning and Economic Development Branch 9.0 INTENSIFICATION AND DENSITY TARGETS BY LOCAL MUNICIPALITY 9.1 Intensification Targets A York Region intensification framework was presented to Regional Council in April 2019 and is being through the Regional Official Plan update The Growth Plan requires municipalities to prepare an intensification strategy to set out how the Growth Plan minimum intensification target will be met. The April 2019 Planning for Intensification report presented a draft framework for intensification in York Region. The framework is based on existing Centres and Corridors policies in the Regional Official Plan along with local municipal intensification strategies and policies. Intensification is planned for strategic locations within the built-up area to optimize efficiencies in infrastructure and services delivery, including transit services. The current Regional Official Plan includes an intensification matrix that supports a hierarchy of appropriate density ranges by intensification type. As part of 48% 39% 20% 38% 54%52% 39% 70% 32% 52% 48% 36% 30%33% 50%52% 39% 62% 34% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2016 2051 Page 114 of 295 67 the Regional Official Plan review process, a more simplified intensification hierarchy is being developed that proposes the following components: 1. Regional Centres/ subway stations 2. Major Transit Stations Areas 3. Regional Corridors 4. Local centres and corridors A range of factors were considered in developing local municipal intensification targets Under the Growth Plan, York Region is required to meet a minimum 50% intensification target. Each local municipality will play a unique role in supporting the achievement of the overall Regional intensification target. Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill have the largest built-up areas and contain three of the four Regional Centres as well as extensive intensification corridors. They also benefit from having the most existing and planned transit infrastructure. A number of factors were considered in developing the proposed local municipal intensification targets including: • Current planning applications in the built-up area • Extent of planned local municipal intensification areas – Regional Centres and Corridors, Major Transit Station Areas, local centres and corridors, and infill potential • Current Regional Official Plan local municipal intensification targets • Infrastructure capacity and timing The extent and presence of Major Transit Station Areas was considered in developing intensification targets but were not a determining factor since Major Transit Station Areas are not obligated to meet their minimum density targets by 2051. The amount of vacant designated greenfield area land and distribution of urban expansion also impacts a municipalities intensification rate. For example, a municipality such as Markham, while allocated a significant share of the Region’s total intensification units also has a large amount of designated greenfield area and whitebelt growth proposed to 2051 which results in a lower intensification percentage than a municipality such as Newmarket that has very little remaining designated greenfield area potential. Table 14 presents proposed intensification targets by local municipality. Page 115 of 295 68 Table 14 Proposed Local Municipal Intensification Targets Municipality 2016-2051 Intensification Target (units) Intensification Percentage Aurora 4,600 45% East Gwillimbury 800 3% Georgina 2,500 28% King 2,800 35% Markham 50,300 52% Newmarket 8,700 86% Richmond Hill 33,100 77% Vaughan 49,100 56% Whitchurch-Stouffville 3,600 21% York Region 155,500 50% Source: Planning and Economic Development Branch As shown in Figure 21, compared to the 2031 targets in the 2010 Regional Official Plan, most local municipal targets are higher in order to achieve the 50% Regional intensification target. Given that the market is currently delivering over 50% Region-wide, these increases are reasonable. The draft intensification targets for King, Newmarket, Richmond Hill and Whitchurch-Stouffville are noticeably higher than the current Regional Official Plan due to less available greenfield growth. Page 116 of 295 69 Figure 21 Comparison of Local Municipal Intensification Targets Source: Planning and Economic Development Branch 9.2 Designated Greenfield Area Density Targets Local municipal designated greenfield area density targets reflect existing and planned development As part of the land needs assessment process, the Growth Plan requires that the Region develop local municipal designated greenfield area density targets. The targets are expressed as minimum densities in residents and jobs per hectare that are planned to be achieved by 2051. The designated greenfield area targets reflect existing development in the designated greenfield area along with planned residential and non-residential uses and are to be applied across the entire designated greenfield area within each local municipality. This includes any proposed urban expansion lands required to accommodate growth to 2051. Local municipal designated greenfield area minimum density targets are calculated in the same way as the Regional total – considering built, under construction, under application, and planned development in the designated greenfield area. As discussed earlier in this report, a density of 60 residents and jobs per hectare was assumed for urban expansion purposes in community areas. Local municipal designated greenfield area minimum density targets are shown in Table 15. 45% 3% 28% 35% 52% 86% 77% 56% 21% 36% 4% 24% 15% 51%54%51% 45% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2051 Target 2031 ROP Target Page 117 of 295 70 Table 15 Proposed Local Municipal Designated Greenfield Area Density Targets Municipality 2051 DGA Density Targets (residents and jobs per ha) Aurora 55 East Gwillimbury 55 Georgina 35 King 30 Markham 70 Newmarket 40 Richmond Hill 70 Vaughan 70 Whitchurch- Stouffville 50 York Region 60 Source: Planning and Economic Development Branch In the case of many municipalities, designated greenfield area density targets are heavily influenced by existing areas that have already been built at low densities. Density targets in Table 15 should therefore be treated as minimums. Local municipalities are encouraged to plan for higher densities in appropriate locations, especially in areas with higher order transit. 10.0 INTEGRATED APPROACH TO GROWTH MANAGEMENT 10.1 Managing growth-related risks Integrated growth management will be important in mitigating growth-related risk Planning for growth of over 800,000 people and 345,000 jobs over a 30-year planning horizon will require an integrated and agile approach to growth management. Achieving provincial forecasts requires average annual growth of 26,100 people per year. As shown in Table 16, this figure exceeds short term historical average annual growth (2010-2020) in York Region and is slightly above longer-term averages over the past 35 years. Table 16 Comparison of Local Municipal Intensification Targets Historical short term Historical long term 2051 forecast 16,500 24,900 26,100 Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 118 of 295 71 The Region’s fiscal capacity is strongly tied to the pace of growth. As a result, there are financial risks associated with planning for growth and paying for required infrastructure. Slower than anticipated growth could have the following impacts: • Slower cost recovery through development charges to pay down outstanding development charges debt and reduction in the amount of development charges revenue available to fund new infrastructure – for example a sustained 10% reduction in collections versus the forecast could require capital deferral of up to $300 million • Increased costs for operating infrastructure put in place too early to operate efficiently • Tax levy or rate increases for existing residents and businesses to support ongoing operation and maintain service levels • Reduction in contributions to asset management reserves and insufficient funds for the Region’s future capital replacement and rehabilitation. An agile approach to growth management will help maintain financial sustainability The Region has been planning in an integrated manner since the 1994 Regional Official Plan with the current MCR providing an opportunity to re-assess and recalibrate the distribution of growth based on updated policy objectives, recent growth trends, and the actual pace and location of growth observed since the 2010 Regional Official Plan. Core to the Region’s integrated approach to growth management are the objectives in Figure 22. Figure 22 Integrating infrastructure and financial planning with land use planning Source: York Region Planning and Economic Development Branch Page 119 of 295 72 A more agile approach involves regularly re-aligning Regional plans, programs, and processes with the Region’s fiscal reality. Through municipal comprehensive reviews, master plan updates, Capital Plan updates, and annual budget reviews there are opportunities to re-calibrate Regional plans and strategies with actual growth and development charges collections. While the current MCR and master plan process will provide the foundation for planning for growth to 2051, annual updates to Capital Plans through the annual budget process will be important in responding to the changing nature and pace of growth to ensure growth remains fiscally sustainable. Future municipal comprehensive reviews (approximately every 5-10 years) will re- assess the distribution and pace of growth as well as future urban expansion needs. Analyzing the full costs and debt implications of land use decisions and understanding associated risks and opportunities has been and will continue to be important. While planning to achieve the Region’s long term vision of building strong, caring, safe, complete communities will ultimately require 100% of the remaining whitebelt lands, applying the land needs assessment identified that only 80% of these lands are required to accommodate the 2051 forecast. An assessment of the full costs and debt implications of land use decisions therefore becomes of paramount importance when recommending a distribution of urban expansion lands. As shown in Section 6, based on an assessment of risks, opportunities, and costs associated with each geographic option, the proposed distribution of urban expansion in Table 8 more closely aligns infrastructure investment required to support growth with the ability to recover it through development charges. It also reduces the costs of new infrastructure relative to other geographic distributions by not requiring the final expansion of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre. Phasing is another key component to managing growth, particularly over the extensive 30-year planning horizon. Based on the allocation of growth in Table 8, and an estimated 33% share of anticipated Regional rapid transit costs to 2051, an estimated $11.6 billion in new infrastructure is required to accommodate growth to 2051. The significant investments required to accommodate growth to 2051 mean that growth cannot happen everywhere at once so mechanisms to implement phasing at the Regional and local municipal levels will be incorporated into the Regional Official Plan update. Finally, it's important to recognize the role of the Region’s partners in building communities. Greater coordination and information exchange particularly with local municipalities and the development community will be critical to a successful integrated growth management strategy. It will be important for public agency partners to support growth to ensure complete communities Cooperation by other public agencies and the private sector will be necessary to achieve the 2051 forecast. The Province, local municipalities, the development industry, Metrolinx, conservation authorities, and the public are important stakeholders in supporting and managing growth. Fast-tracking critical infrastructure to support growth in the Region will require action by the Province. The overdue approval of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre is necessary to unlock population growth potential in northern York Region and required to accommodate the assigned growth to 2051. Continued funding for planned Bus Rapid Transit and Yonge-North Page 120 of 295 73 Subway Extension projects are necessary to accommodate high-density growth in the Region’s urbanizing areas. The development industry can play an important role in mitigating financial risks to the Region by entering into prepaid development charges credit agreements in advance of Regional infrastructure in exchange for a development charges credit at the time of registration/site plan approval. This is one example of risk sharing the Region will consider moving forward. 10.2 Phasing and staging of growth Phasing strategies for urban expansion areas will be enhanced in the draft Regional Official Plan and coordinated with infrastructure Master Plans The amount of urban expansion and associated population and employment growth to 2051 is unprecedented. To achieve its 2051 forecasts, York Region will be required to accommodate over 130,000 people and 50,000 jobs in new whitebelt areas. This is in addition to growth of 115,000 and 35,000 jobs in the Region’s 2031 new community areas that were brought into the urban boundary through the 2010 ROP for which construction is just starting. Together, these growth areas consist of almost one third of the Region’s total growth to 2051 with most of these areas being dependent on new infrastructure. Ensuring this growth materializes in a controlled and phased manner will be critical to deliver complete communities for new residents with timely provision of services such as schools, libraries, community centres, and other personal services, in addition to roads, transit, and pipe infrastructure. This will also be important to support a return on previous infrastructure investments in the Region’s intensification areas. To properly manage this amount of growth across diverse geographies of the Region will require strong phasing policies in both Regional and local municipal Official Plans. A phased approach to growth management will consider: • Optimizing growth in areas with existing water and wastewater capacity in order to recover development charges collections prior to making new investments • Giving special consideration to projects which support broader geographic areas (including supporting intensification) and/or enhance the existing transportation network and water/ wastewater system rather than result in extensions to those systems • Phasing policies for urban expansion areas based on: o Alignment with capital spending o Achievement of population thresholds o Prioritizing areas that are lower risk (higher level of certainty), lower costs, lower costs per capital, and greater potential return on investment o Tying the timing of growth in intensification areas to the sustained achievement of the Region’s annual intensification target o A requirement to provide a logical progression of development Page 121 of 295 74 Designating 80% of the whitebelt provides certainty, focus, and stronger alignment with the ability to recover growth-related investments through development charges As mentioned, 100% of the whitebelt will be required at some point in time to accommodate Regional growth. Planning for 80% of the whitebelt allows the Region to take a more focused approach to planning for growth to 2051 and to better leverage existing and planned infrastructure investments. Planning for growth as allocated in Table 8 of this report also acknowledges that the final phase of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre is likely to be built post 2051, thereby reducing the amount of new infrastructure that is planned for through master plans and Capital Plans. Planning for 80% of the whitebelt also provides more certainty and focus for the Region by creating a closer alignment between the infrastructure required to support growth to 2051, the cost of that infrastructure, and the ability to recover costs through development charges collections. Finally, 80% of the whitebelt minimizes, to the extent possible, impacts on the Region’s agri- food network and supports ongoing agricultural uses given that the majority of the lands not proposed for urban expansion (located in northern East Gwillimbury) had LEAR scores in the highest category. Identifying the remaining Whitebelt as Future Urban beyond 2051 is a consideration With the Provincial Land Needs Assessment requiring 80% of the Region’s Whitebelt to accommodate growth to 2051, it may be appropriate to clarify that the remaining 20% of Whitebelt lands will likely be needed for future growth beyond 2051. Eighty percent to 2051 can be supplied by existing and planned infrastructure investments, and more closely matches the ability to recover growth-related costs through development charges in the future. This also acknowledges the final phase of the Upper York Water Reclamation Centre is likely to be post 2051. Identifying the remaining 20% of the Whitebelt lands as “Future Urban” beyond 2051 acknowledges the reality of the future long-term function of these lands. It should be noted that in January 2021, concern was expressed with the identification of whitebelt lands not required to 2051 as a result of the provincial land needs assessment as ‘Future Urban’. Local municipal staff identified that a 30-year planning horizon provided ample land to accommodate growth to 2051 and that planning communities beyond that horizon was premature. They also indicated the desire to capitalize on technological advancements as well as inevitable changes to demographic, housing, and consumer preferences as well as the nature of work. Page 122 of 295 75 11.0 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS Planning for and managing growth is a complex process that involves many considerations. Growth forecasts are developed and distributed to the Region’s nine local municipalities based on Provincial growth targets, planning policy, demographic factors, market trends, financial, and servicing factors. Results of the Provincial land needs assessment methodology produce a need for 2,300 hectares of community land and 1,100 hectares of employment lands to accommodate growth to 2051 – equating to 80% of the Region’s available Whitebelt lands. The proposed distribution of urban expansion lands in Table 7 is based on a thorough review of opportunities, costs, and potential risks in each geographic area of the whitebelt. Timing and uncertainty of servicing in northern York Region is a key factor informing the distribution of urban expansion land needs to 2051. Proposed forecasts meet the requirements of the Provincial Policy Statement, Growth Plan, and Regional Official Plan with respect to criteria for assessing locations for urban expansion while also minimizing growth-related risks to the Region. The proposed forecast distribution by local municipality is based on recent growth trends, Land Need Assessment urban expansion needs, vacant greenfield areas, and market demand for intensification. While 100% of the Whitebelt will be required in time, planning for 80% to 2051 will require a more focused and financially sustainable approach to managing growth and infrastructure delivery. Identifying the remaining 20% of the Whitebelt lands as “Future Urban” would reflect the reality of future long-term growth beyond 2051 and encourage comprehensive long-term visioning for those lands. Further, staging and phasing of capital investments in line with actual rather than forecast growth will be necessary for a more agile and coordinated approach to achieving the Region's long-term vision of building strong, caring, safe complete communities in a financially sustainable manner. Page 123 of 295 Built-up Area DesignatedGreenfield Area Greenbelt Ham let 2010 U rbanExpansion DesignatedGreenfield Area- Agriculture 73 1 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 3839 40 72 41 424344 45 46 47 48 49 5051 52 53 54 55 56 5758 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 74 73 66 67 68 69 7029 71 35 Main Street Henderson Drive Metro Road North Carrville Road Mulock Drive Gamble Road Elgin Mills Road West Kipling AvenueDalton RoadDavis Drive West McCowan RoadPine Valley DriveClovelly C ove Lake Drive NorthBloomington Road Hedge Road Major Mackenzie Drive West Centre StreetClarence StreetPetes Lane Elgin Mills Road East North Lake Road Prospect StreetWellington Street West Highway 27Lake Drive Ea s t Cornell Centre BoulevardHi g h S t r e e t Is l ing ton A venu e Lake Drive SouthDon M i l ls RoadThe Queensway SouthRutherford Road Baseline Road Tenth LineMarkham RoadChurch Street Woodbine Avenue14th AvenueYonge StreetHighway 7 Highway 9 Bathurst StreetHighway 50Park RoadBayview AvenueOld Homestead Road Lloydto w n / A u r o r a R o a d Jane StreetVictoria Road Dufferin StreetNinth LineJohn Street Steeles Avenue East Mount Albert Road Major Mackenzie Drive East Sunset Beach Road Black River Road Steeles Avenue West 16th Avenue Farr Avenue Aurora Road Highway 48Alden RoadSt John's Sideroad King Road Warden AvenueWellington Street East Peff e r l a w R o a d York/Durham LineRavenshoe Road Weston RoadTeston Road Donald Cousens ParkwayKennedy RoadKeele StreetLangstaff Road Davis Drive Morton Avenue Hadden RoadWeir's SideroadStouffville Road 15th Sideroad 18th Sideroad Vivian Road King-Vaughan Road 19th Avenue Leslie Street0 10 Kilom eters REGIONAL MAP YORK REGION G:\Dev elopm ent\D01 - Dem ograph y\2017 Municipal Com preh ensiv e Rev iew\Forecast and Land Budget\Council Report\March 2021 Report\Graph ics and Maps\MXDs Land Use Category Base Map Municipal Boundary Oth er Municipal Boundaries Roads 400-Series High ways Waterbodies CITY OFMARKHAM Produced by:Th e Regional Municipality of YorkPlanning and Econom icDev elopm ent, Corporate Serv ices March 2021 Data:© Queen’s Printer for Ontario 2003-2021 ± Landowner/Municipal Requestsfor Urban Expansion *Areas are draft and are awaiting approv alth rough th e Municipal Com preh esiv e Rev iew and are subject to ch ange. CITY OF VAUGHAN TOWNSHIP OF KING CITY OF RICHMONDHILL CITY OF MARKHAM TOWN OF WHITCHURCH-STOUFFVILLE TOWN OF AURORA TOWN OF NEWMARKET TOWN OF EAST GWILLIMBURY TOWN OF GEORGINA U rban ExpansionRequest ATTACHMENT 2 1 Page 124 of 295 2 York Region Official Plan Review Landowner and Municipal Submissions for Urban Expansion for the Municipal Comprehensive Review Table 1: Landowner Requests Note: Any lands ultimately identified for urban expansion would be subject to further studies to determine the extent of developable area. ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 1 1 RJ Forhan & Associates Romandale Farms Ltd. 4044 Elgin Mills Road East, Markham Request for lands to be brought into the Urban Area through the MCR, should the Region determine a need for additional ‘Whitebelt’ land. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 3 2 Weston Consulting 1606620 Ontario Inc. 12700 7th Concession, King The portion of the lands in Vaughan currently designated ‘Whitebelt’ maintain the designation and this portion of the property be added to the Urban Area should the Region determine a need for additional ‘Whitebelt’ land. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 4 3 Weston Consulting Mrs. Orah Buck 5511 King Vaughan Road, Vaughan The portion of the lands in Vaughan currently designated ‘Whitebelt’ maintain the designation and this portion of the property be added to the Urban Area should the Region determine a need for additional ‘Whitebelt’ land. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 125 of 295 3 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 5 4 Cam Milani Milani Group 1136 Teston Road, Vaughan Remove lands from ORMCP Countryside and Natural Linkage and bring them into the Settlement Area. Consider property for inclusion in the Urban Area should the Region determine a need for additional ‘Whitebelt’ land. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 6 5 IBI Group Toromont Industries Limited 3230 King Road, King Remove lands from Protected Countryside and Natural Heritage System designations in Greenbelt Plan and remove lands from Greenbelt and Agricultural designations in YROP and re- designate land for Employment Use. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 7 6 M.A.M Group Inc (including subsidiary Trinistar Corporation) and SGL Westlin Farms Inclane Home Corporation, Trinison Management Corp., Trinistar Corporation 12470 Weston Road, King Include the subject lands within the urban area expansion. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 126 of 295 4 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 8 7 Sorensen Gravely Lowes Planning & Design Inc. Willowgrove 11737 McCowan Road, Whitchurch- Stouffville Request that the Willowgrove lands not be considered for any “land swap” to redesignate the lands from ‘Whitebelt’ to greenbelt in the Greenbelt Plan. Request that this portion of the "Whitebelt lands" should remain as such to allow for the possibility of a logical urban boundary expansion of the Community of Stouffville, to accommodate Provincial growth projections. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 9 8 Evans Planning Inc. Ms. Asha Rani Batra 1775 Bethesda Road, 12471 Leslie Street, 1700 Stouffville Road, Richmond Hill Remove lands from the Greenbelt Plan and modify ORMCP designation to permit employment uses. Consider adding these lands to Urban Area through the MCR and redesignate to permit employment uses. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 10 9 Weston Consulting Vinnie Ussia, 1116941 Ontario Ltd. 11180 Huntington Road, 6901 Kirby Road, 7001 Kirby Road, and 7055 Kirby Road, Vaughan Include subject lands in the Urban Area through the MCR to permit low-rise residential use on the east side and commercial/industrial uses to the west of the railway tracks. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 127 of 295 5 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 11 10 Patrick Cheng Peoples Gospel Church 5172 Major Mackenzie Drive East, Markham Include subject lands in Urban Area through the MCR to permit construction of the Peoples Gospel Church. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 12 11 Humphries Planning Group Inc. K & K Holdings Ltd. 11600 Keele Street, Vaughan Include subject lands in urban area to align ROP with Vaughan OMB approved Official Plan. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 13 12 Michael Smith Planning Consultants 1334618 Ontario Inc. 18823 Old Yonge Street, East Gwillimbury Request to include subject lands (part of the ‘Whitebelt’) in the Urban Area through the MCR to permit low-density development of the lands. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 14 13 Barbir and Associates 18823 Old Yonge Street 12820 Bathurst Street, King Include subject lands in the Township of King settlement area. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Page 128 of 295 6 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 15 14 Pamela Tang and Peter Chang Sing Pamela Tang and Peter Chang Sing 11871 Albion Vaughan Road, Vaughan Redesignate Greenbelt portion of the lands and bring entire property from ‘Whitebelt’ into Urban Area. Introduce a new GO station on property. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 16 15 Dillon Consulting Mr. Edmund Moss 12441 Woodbine Avenue, Whitchurch- Stouffville Request for an expansion of the Gormley Secondary Plan Area to include the subject lands to be developed as General Commercial and Light Employment. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 17 16 Bousfields Inc. Living Life (Greenwich Inc.) 18618 Yonge Street, East Gwillimbury Request for lands to be brought into the Urban Boundary for East Gwillimbury to permit the development of commercial and residential uses, including affordable, rental and seniors housing. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 19 17 Bousfields Inc. Ms. Lesa Cozzi 1070 Nashville Road, Vaughan Request for Whitebelt lands to be brought into the Urban Boundary through the MCR. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 129 of 295 7 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 20 18 Davies Howe Partners LLP Warden North GP Inc. 11691 Warden Avenue, Whitchurch- Stouffville Request for lands to be brought into the urban boundary through the MCR. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 21 19 Humphries Planning Group Inc. 1453941 Ontario Ltd. 4995- 5015 Lloydtown/ Aurora Road and 16425 8th Concession, King Request for lands to be brought into Pottageville Hamlet Plan boundary through the MCR. Property is currently designated as Protected Countryside and Natural Heritage System in the Greenbelt Plan. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 22 20 MMM Group Ltd. Nizza Enterprises 2354 Ravenshoe Road, Georgina Request the subject lands and the lands to the north be included into the Urban Area as well as re- designate the lands from Agricultural Protection Area to Employment as part of the Town's Official Plan review. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 23 21 Owners of the Bradford Inn (Sia and Frank) Owners of the Bradford Inn (Sia and Frank) 20590 Highway 11, King Request for additional permissions under the Greenbelt Plan to permit the development of a seniors housing complex or an expansion to the existing hotel use. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Page 130 of 295 8 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 24 22 KLM Planning Partners Inc. Block 42 landowners: Melrose Properties Inc., Ironrose Invest ments Inc., MCN (Pinevalley) Inc., Mel-Terra Investments Inc., Azure Woods Home Corp., Lazio Farms Holdings Inc., Mastro Capital Partners Inc., Mastro Investments Inc., and Intu Developments Corporation 12011 Pine Valley Drive, Vaughan Request for an expansion of the urban boundary to include the lands within Block 42 for urban uses through the MCR. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 26 23 Biddington Homes/ Bousfields Inc. Owners of 198 Oriole Drive, East Gwillimbury 198 Oriole Drive, East Gwillimbury Request for lands to be brought into the urban boundary through the MCR. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 131 of 295 9 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 28 24 KLM Planning Partners Inc. 2154000 Ontario Inc. 15940 Bathurst Street, King Request for lands to be removed from Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Area and Greenbelt Plan Area. Request for lands to be brought into the urban boundary through the MCR. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 31 25 Humphries Planning Inc Owners of 10436, 10450 Huntington Road 10436, 10450 Huntington Road, Vaughan Request for lands to be brought into the urban boundary through the MCR. Property is currently within the ‘Whitebelt’ in Block 66E in Vaughan. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 32 26 Weston Consulting P. Campagna Investments Ltd. 12162 Woodbine Avenue, 11670 Woodbine Avenue, 11851 Woodbine Avenue, 11767 Woodbine Avenue, 11674 Warden Avenue, Whitchurch- Stouffville Request for lands to be brought into the urban boundary through the MCR for employment purposes. The properties are primarily within the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Greenbelt Plan areas. A small portion of land is ‘Whitebelt’. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 33 27 Weston Consulting Laurentel Developments 10961 Cold Creek Road, Vaughan Request for lands to be brought into the urban boundary through the MCR for employment purposes. The property is currently within the ‘Whitebelt’ lands in north west Vaughan. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 132 of 295 10 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 42 28 Devine Park LLP Elgin Mills Markham Ltd. 4716 Elgin Mills Road East, Markham Request to include identified property in urban expansion area. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 45 29 Evans Planning Inc. Sharon Road Holding Company (857 Mount Albert Road); Oxford Developments (18839 2nd Concession Road) 857 Mount Albert Road and 18839 2nd Concession Road, East Gwillimbury Request to include lands in urban area. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 47 30 Arshia Delfani & Roya Rezaee Arshia Delfani & Roya Rezaee 1915 Farr Avenue, East Gwillimbury Request to redesignate land as urban based on nature of surrounding land, freeway, etc. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 133 of 295 11 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 52 31 Harper Dell & Associates 14897 and 14773 Leslie Street, Aurora Request to redesignate Part W 1/2 Lots 17 and 18, Cons 3 EYS from ORMCP Countryside to Settlement Area In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 57 32 Weston Consulting Marino D'Allesandro 2062 Farr Avenue, East Gwillimbury Request to include whitebelt lands in urban boundary (extending urban boundary slightly west from adjacent parcels in the Sharon Community) The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 62 33 Kian Kashani Kashani & Co. Investment Inc., Kashani & Kashani Inc. 21170 Woodbine Avenue, East Gwillimbury Consider lands for site specific zoning or inclusion within future expansions to the urban area to support the ongoing growth of York Region. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 65 34 Weston Consulting Di Poce Real Estate Holdings Limited 11720 Highway 27, Vaughan Request for Urban boundary expansion on the eastern portion of the lands outside of the Greenbelt. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Although the subject property is within the urban expansion area, a preliminary review indicates little to no developable area. Page 134 of 295 12 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 67 35 KLM Planning Partnership Robintide Farms Limited 2720 King- Vaughan Road, Vaughan Request for removal of the ORMCP/redesignation portion of the west lands; the appropriate long- term use of the west lands will be for urban uses. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 69 36 Weston Consulting 6990 Nashville Road, Vaughan The subject property is currently located approximately 2 kilometers north of the City of Vaughan’s Urban Boundary. Request for staff to consider potential future development of these lands in its growth management analysis. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 70 37 Armstrong Planning Vanda Buttarazzi and Kalid Yusuf 5920 Kirby Road and 11561 Highway 27, Vaughan Request for a minor expansion of the Urban Boundary up to the Greenbelt Boundary to accommodate future residential uses. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Although the subject property is within the urban expansion area, a preliminary review indicates little to no developable area. 74 38 Premier Realty Consulting Limited Di Poce Real Estate Limited 11720 Kipling Avenue, Vaughan Applicant requests that as part of the Region's MCR and the City's Official Plan Review process to consider lands outside the Greenbelt for future community area development. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Although the subject property is within the urban expansion area, a preliminary review indicates little to no developable area. Page 135 of 295 13 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 79 39 Weston Consulting Sarai Trucking Limited 11151 Highway 50, 11050 Cold Creek Road, 11065 Highway 50, Vaughan Request for subject property to be included in the Urban Area designation. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 81 40 Thorstone Consulting Services 685109 Ontario Ltd. (Geo A. Kelson Company) 236 Doane Road, East Gwillimbury That the land at 236 Doane Road, in the Town of East Gwillimbury, be identified as a “Future Urban Area”. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 85 41 Evans Planning Ann Lee Chong and Teddy Chong 641 Queensville Sideroad, East Gwillimbury Request to update the Region's Greenbelt protected countryside layer and to request including the lands within the urban boundary to allow for urban expansion. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 136 of 295 14 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 91 42 Evans Planning Inc. 2nd Concession Landowners Group 18899, 18839 2nd Concession Road, 893, 857 Mount Albert Road, East Gwillimbury Applicant requests to bring the subject lands (agricultural area) into the urban area. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 98 43 Groundswell Urban Planners Inc. Marianneville Stonehaven Developments Limited (Kerbel Group) 18813, 18881 and 18737 Bathurst Street, and 356 Morning Sideroad, East Gwillimbury Request for urban expansion northward to include the subject lands with the development of Whitebelt lands to occur north of Green Lane. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 137 of 295 15 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 10 3 44 The Biglieri Group Ltd. Holland Green Developments Inc. Part of Lot 106, Concession 1, West of Yonge Street, East Gwillimbury A request to re- designate the lands from Agriculture to future Settlement Area. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 10 8 45 Weston Consulting Paul and Doris Nessim PT LT 29 CON 7 PTS 1, 2 & 3 65R11933, Vaughan The purpose of this submission is to formally request consideration for an Urban Area Boundary Expansion through the Region's MCR. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 11 5 46 MHBC Planning, Urban Design & Landscape Architecture Liberty Development Corporation (1596630 Ontario Ltd.) 19350 Woodbine Avenue, East Gwillimbury Requesting that the York Region expands the Queensville settlement through the MCR process to accommodate employment purposes on Whitebelt lands. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 138 of 295 16 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 11 7 47 Thorstone Consulting Services Thomas & Martin Pick 21045 2nd Concession Road, East Gwillimbury Requesting that mostly Whitebelt lands be considered for future urban expansion employment lands. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 12 0 48 Dentons Canada LLP Flato Developments and Wyview Group 12650 Highway 27 & 13235 10th Concession, King Request for lands to be considered for inclusion in the Nobleton Community settlement area. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Additional growth beyond the serviced capacity limit in the current environmental assessment is not being proposed based on preliminary financial assessments for the community of Nobleton. 12 1 49 KLM Planning Properties Inc. Yarmosh Holdings Inc. c/o DG Group 11665 Jane Street, Vaughan Request for lands to be included within the Urban Boundary for the City of Vaughan through the MCRP process. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 139 of 295 17 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 12 2 50 Margaret Orsi and Domenic & Pina Greco Margaret Orsi and Domenic & Pina Greco 13044 Ninth Line (Margaret Orsi) and 12958 Ninth Line (Domenic & Pina Greco), Whitchurch- Stouffville Urban Area Expansion (York Region) and inclusion into the official plan and secondary plan area (Town of Whitchurch- Stouffville). In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 12 5 51 MHBC Planning DiBattista Farms Ltd/Signature Communities 11180, 11300, 11340 Huntington Road, Vaughan Request that the lands be included in the urban boundary expansion as "future urban area." The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Although the subject properties are within the urban expansion area, a preliminary review indicates little to no developable area. 12 6 52 Dr. Keith Watson Dr. Keith Watson 18004 Leslie Street, East Gwillimbury Seeking to have Whitebelt land included in the Settlement Area of East Gwillimbury. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 140 of 295 18 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 13 0 53 Weston Consulting 11561 Highway 27, Vaughan Request consideration of the southern portion of the subject lands (currently white belt) for inclusion within the Urban Area limits of the City of Vaughan in the Region of York Official Plan. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). For the ‘Whitebelt’ portion of the lands, a number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. 13 3 54 Groundswell Urban Planners Inc. 2561371 Ontario Inc. 5612 Lakeshore Road, Whitchurch- Stouffville The subject property is designated ORM Countryside Area. The request for consideration to include the subject property into the urban boundary. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 13 8 55 Weston Consulting Laurentel Developments 6910 Roe Road, Vaughan Formally request consideration for the inclusion of the subject properties within the Urban Area through the Region’s MCR. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 14 0 56 SOL-Arch Jerry Xu 6336 Bloomington Road, Whitchurch- Stouffville Interested to be included in the York Region's Boundary Expansion Plan for Hamlet of Bloomington In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Page 141 of 295 19 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 14 1 57 CBRE Limited Mary Friedrich 4050 King- Vaughan Road, Vaughan Client seeks that an expansion of the urban boundary includes the subject lands within Block 42 for future urban uses, and that property is included in budgetary discussions for the expansion of the Urban Area The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 14 5 58 Stella Ventura Antonio and Antoinietta Guida (parents of Stella Ventura) 4100 King- Vaughan Road, Vaughan Submission to support that the current MCR review include subject lands located within Block 42 in the proposed urban expansion boundary. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 14 6 59 WSP 1860938 Ontario Ltd. (Sam Morra) Pt of Lot 32, Concession 11, Vaughan Applicant is requesting that the Subject Area, including the Subject Property, be included within York Region’s Urban Area Boundary for use as a mix of affordable residential and employment uses. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 15 8 60 Henry Li, Representative of Centraland Jerry Xu 13962 Ninth Line, Whitchurch- Stouffville Interested to be included in the York Region's Boundary Expansion Plan for Hamlet of Bloomington In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 16 0 61 Weston Consulting 18609A Highway 48 & 18784 Centre Street, East Gwillimbury Formally request consideration for the subject properties for inclusion in the Town and Villages designation of the York Region OP. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Page 142 of 295 20 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 16 1 62 Weston Consulting (Pt Lot 31 Con 8 VAUGHN) or 00 Kirby Road, Vaughan Formally request consideration for the subject property to be included in the Urban Area limits of the Region of York OP. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 16 2 63 Macaulay Shiomi Howson Ltd. Sundial Homes (Green Lane) Limited 22 Green Lane West, East Gwillimbury Requests the inclusion of a small, isolated piece of land currently used for agriculture in the urban boundary. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 16 6 64 Dentons Canada LLP Flato Developments Inc., Wyview Group Highway 48 and Dickson Hill Road, Markham Request the Region include these lands as part of a settlement area expansion. Clients intend to develop a full mixed use community focused on age-friendly development, including seniors housing. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Subject to Provincial MZO. 16 8 65 SGL Planning & Design Inc. Northeast Markham Landowners Group (NEMLG) North of Major Mackenzie Drive East and east of McCowan Road, Markham NEMLG respectfully requests that their lands be included within an expansion to the City of Markham urban boundary through the MCR process. The lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan area are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. Page 143 of 295 21 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 19 7 66 MGP Vianova Group Inc. 2005 Bethesda Side Road, Whitchurch- Stouffville Request of Vianova Group Inc. to the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing for a Minister's Zoning Order to permit Light Employment and industrial development on a site outside the Town's settlement area boundary; site is designated Oak Ridges Moraine Countryside where Light Employment industrial development is not permitted in the Town and Region's Official Plans. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 20 1 67 Tagrid Rokan Tagrid Rokan 5026 Bethesda Road, Whitchurch- Stouffville Inquiring about urban boundary expansion and the possibility of future development. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 20 2 68 Ashish Patel Ashish Patel 13187 Ninth Line, Whitchurch- Stouffville Inquiring for future potential boundary expansion of Stouffville In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Page 144 of 295 22 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 20 4 69 Thorstone Consulting Services, Inc. 1324534 Ontario Inc (Thomas and Martin Pick) 18733, 18719, 18645 Old Yonge Street, East Gwillimbury That the area generally described as the lands east of Old Yonge Road north of Green Lane East, be identified as a “Future Urban Area” within the draft land budget for 2041 and the Region’s Municipal Comprehensive Review. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. 20 5 70 MHBC Planning, Urban Design & Landscape Architecture Liberty Development Corporation (1596630 Ontario Ltd.) Part Lot 13 &14, Conc 3, East Gwillimbury Expand the Sharon settlement area to permit a mix of residential and population-related employment on Whitebelt land. The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 145 of 295 23 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 20 6 71 Prudence Management Inc. 1078703 Ontario Limited 20913 Leslie Street, East Gwillimbury Applicant requests that the subject lands be included in the Urban Boundary with the new Official Plan. A number of considerations informed the identification of preliminary urban expansion areas. Staff are not recommending these lands be included in the preliminary urban boundary expansion. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 146 of 295 24 Table 2: Municipal Requests Note: Any lands ultimately identified for urban expansion would be subject to further studies to determine the extent of developable area. ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 82 72 Town of Whitchurch- Stouffville Town of Whitchurch- Stouffville 1) Areas east of Highway 404, between the southern boundary of the Town of Whitchurch- Stouffville and Bethesda Sideroad. 2) Area between the southern boundary of the Town of Whitchurch- Stouffville and west of McCowan Road That the subject lands be included into the Provincially Significant Employment Zones. The Town of Whitchurch- Stouffville also endorsed an expansion of the urban settlement boundary. 1) In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). 2) The lands are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. 170 73 Town of East Gwillimbury Town of East Gwillimbury Various parcels in the central and western sections of East Gwillimbury THAT Council endorses the need to include the “Whitebelt” lands within the Town as part of the “Urban Area” in the Regional Official Plan (ROP) through the Region’s current Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) process in order to create complete communities, coordinate infrastructure planning and accommodate residential and employment growth to the year 2041 and beyond. A portion of the lands outside of the Greenbelt Plan are included within the preliminary urban boundary expansion based on the Province’s mandated land needs assessment. *Preliminary distribution of the quantum of urban expansion required based on the proposed forecast for the Town of East Gwillimbury is subject to ongoing discussions between York Region and Town of East Gwillimbury staff. Page 147 of 295 25 ID # Submitted by On Behalf of Location or Address Nature of Request Comments 169 74 MPlan Inc., City of Richmond Hill Leslie Stouffville Landowners Association Northeast Richmond Hill, surrounding the Gormley GO Station Request that Countryside designated area be redesignated to settlement area, and that lands south of Bethesda Road are not to be considered within a prime agricultural area. In accordance with Provincial policies, urban uses are not being proposed within the Greenbelt Plan or Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (beyond existing settlement areas). Page 148 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 905-272-3600 March 2021 info@watsonecon.ca Foundational Housing Analysis York Region ________________________ Final Report (Executive Summary) ATTACHMENT 3 Page 149 of 295 Executive Summary Page 150 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE i \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Executive Summary With an estimated population of 1,227,000 as of 2021,1 York Region is expected to grow to approximately 2 million people by the year 2051, in accordance with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) – A Place to Grow, hereinafter referred to as the Growth Plan, 2019.2 As the Region’s population grows, providing affordable and appropriate housing for residents across all life stages will be an ongoing challenge. Between 2021 and 2051, it is estimated that over 273,000 new households will be required across the Region, largely within existing and future urban areas.3 To better understand how macro-economic conditions, as well as regional and local real estate development trends, are influencing current housing trends across the Region, York Region is embarking on the development of a Foundational Housing Analysis. This analysis will help inform the definition of market demand as well as provide an assessment of the various other supply and policy-based factors that are likely to impact York Region’s updated Regional Official Plan (ROP) population and housing forecast. A critical consideration in the development of the 2051 housing forecast will be the need to strike the right balance between market demand, Growth Plan , 2019 targets and policy objectives, housing supply and housing affordability. The York Region Foundational Housing Analysis is being prepared in two phases: •Phase 1 – York Region Foundational Housing Brief (December 2020) – This Brief provided the preliminary findings of the Foundational Housing Analysis, largely as it related to: o The rate of recent population and housing growth relative to current estimates, as well as to York Region’s regional competitors within the broader regional market area;4 and 1 2021 population estimate, York Region. Adjusted for net Census population undercount. 2 A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Office Consolidation. August 2020. Ontario. 3 York Region, Preliminary Draft Forecast to 2051, September 2020. 4 For the purpose of this study, the broader regional market area is defined as the neighbouring upper-tier and single-tier municipalities of the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area as well as the Simcoe Area and Dufferin County. Page 151 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE ii \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx o The reasons for estimated population and housing shortfalls relative to current estimates, as well as preliminary considerations of where on-going unmet housing needs are likely to persist and need to be further examined. The Phase 1 report also provided a closer examination of anticipated residential real estate market demand, including potential barriers to housing choice, within the context of available housing supply. •Phase 2 – York Region Foundational Housing Report – This report provides an assessment of the York Region long-term housing forecast to the year 2051, prepared by York Region as part of its current Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) and ROP Review. As part of this review, specific attention has been given to housing demand by structure type, tenure, planning policy area, and rate of development. In providing this assessment, a detailed examination has also been provided with respect to current conditions and future trends in housing affordability, and the influence of these trends on future housing needs by structure type and tenure. Core to this analysis is an examination of the following key themes regarding the Region’s 2051 population forecast and housing needs over the next 30 years: 1.What are the broader trends regarding long-term population for York Region within the GTHA and GGH context? 2.What are the key factors that need to be considered in assessing the appropriateness of the long-term housing forecast by structure type prepared as part of the York Region draft MCR? 3.Is the York Region long-term housing forecast by structure type prepared as part of the York Region draft MCR appropriate? 4.Is a minimum 50% residential intensification target for York Region from 2021 to 2051 appropriate? Should York Region consider a higher residential intensification target? Page 152 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE iii \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Q1. A1. 5.How are future trends regarding housing affordability in York Region anticipated to impact demand for rental and ownership housing? Are there particular types of rental and ownership housing where supply is needed to accommodate anticipated demand? 6.Are there potential risks for York Region if the housing supply is not well- aligned with the anticipated long-term needs of existing and future residents? 7.What recommended actions should York Region and its partners take to help ensure that housing supply in York Region is aligned with the anticipated needs of the Region’s existing and future residents to the year 2051? What are the broader trends regarding long-term population for York Region within the GTHA and GGH context? The growth outlook for York Region remains very positive; however, it is anticipated that the rate of future population and employment across the Region will gradually decline over the long term. •Population and employment growth within York Region is strongly correlated with the growth outlook and competitiveness of the broader regional economy of Central Ontario, which is commonly referred to as the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). The economic growth potential and increasing global presence of the GGH City/Region presents a tremendous opportunity to leverage York Region’s economic profile at the international level. •Notwithstanding the strong economic and population growth potential of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), it is important to recognize that the GGH Outer Ring economy is anticipated to grow at a relatively faster rate than the GTHA over the next three decades. This forecast shift in population growth from the GTHA to the GGH Outer Ring is anticipated to be largely driven by two key factors: 1) the relative affordability of housing in the GTHA compared to the GGH Outer Ring; and 2) a growing and strengthening economy across the GGH Outer Ring. Page 153 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE iv \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Q2. A2. •It is recognized that the long-term population forecast for the GTHA as set out in the Growth Plan, 2019 is aspirational. This conclusion also applies to York Region. While it is recognized that the Growth Plan, 2019 population and employment forecasts are to be treated as minimums, a higher 2051 population forecast for York Region is not considered to be a likely long-term growth scenario. Accordingly, the Growth Plan, 2019 population forecast for York Region is recommended as the preferred long-term growth forecast. What are the key factors that need to be considered in assessing the appropriateness of the long-term housing forecast by structure type prepared as part of the York Region draft MCR? The appropriateness of the York Region MCR housing forecast by structure type was tested through this Foundational Housing Analysis using a customized housing forecast modelling framework, which assesses future trends in age structure, housing demand by tenure (i.e. ownership vs. rental) and housing affordability. Figure ES-1 summarizes the adopted housing forecast modelling framework. Page 154 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE v \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Figure ES-1 York Region Foundational Housing Study Household Forecast Modelling Framework •Using this modelling framework, a household forecast by structure type by population age group was generated over the 2021 to 2051 planning horizon Key observations regarding housing demand by structure type and major age group are summarized below and illustrated in Figure ES-2. Housing Forecast by Structure Type Housing Forecast by Tenure, Income and Housing Structure Housing Forecast by Age Group Housing Forecast by Tenure Rental Housing Forecast by Affordability Needs Ownership Housing Forecast by Affordability Needs Page 155 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE vi \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx York Region’s Aging Population is one of the Key Drivers of Increased Demand for High-Density Housing •The average age of the population base in York Region is getting older, due to the concentration of Baby Boomers within the Region.1 In 2021, the oldest of the Region’s Baby Boomers will turn 75 years of age. •The percentage of the population in the 75+ age group (older seniors) is forecast to more than double over the 25-year period, from 6% in 2016 to 14% by 2051. The 75+ age group is anticipated to represent the fasting growing demographic group in York Region, increasing at two and a half times the rate of the Region’s total population. •The aging of the Region’s population is anticipated to place increasing demand on the need for a range of new housing options by type and built form, largely geared towards condominiums, rental apartments, seniors’ housing, affordable housing and social housing products. •Over the 2021 to 2051 forecast period, over half (55%) of future high-density housing demand in York Region is anticipated to be generated from households maintained by persons aged 75 years of age and older. •As York Region’s Baby Boomers continue to age, an increasing number of grade- related households are anticipated to “turn-over” to new buyers. In total, approximately 40,000 grade-related households are anticipated to be circulated back into the residential real estate market between 2016 and 2051, representing 13% of the Region’s entire stock of grade-related households in 2016. 1 Defined as those born between 1946 and 1964. Page 156 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE vii \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Figure ES-2 York Region Housing Forecast by Structure Type by Age Group, 2021 to 2051 •The housing forecast by structure type was then further summarized by tenure. These results were also assessed against historical trends as well as active development applications in the planning approvals process. Key observations regarding housing demand by structure type and tenure group are summarized below and illustrated in Figure ES-3. Ownership Housing Forecast o Ownership housing in York Region is forecast to increase by 186,900 households, which represents approximately 68% of total forecast demand for new households over the forecast period. o Just over two-thirds of projected ownership housing growth is anticipated to be grade related, while the remaining 32% is anticipated to be in high- 8% 21% 33% 41% 37% 22% 18% 38% 47% 42% 36% 36% 32% 16% 54% 32% 25% 23% 27% 45% 67% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total Housing Growth, 2021-2051Age GroupLow Density¹Medium Density²High Density³ 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back-to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. derived from York Region Draft Municipal Comprehensive Review Housing Forecast, 2020. 96,200 20,300 1,600 53,000 47,800 26,000 28,300 Page 157 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE viii \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx density forms. Demand for high-density ownership housing is largely anticipated to be generated from persons 75+ years of age. Rental Housing Forecast o Rental housing demand in York Region is projected to total 82,600 households, which represents approximately one-third of housing growth in York Region over the forecast period. At this rate of growth, rental housing would represent approximately 22% of total housing in York Region by the year 2051, which is similar to the ratio of rental to total housing for the GTHA, excluding the City of Toronto, as of 2016. o Just under two-thirds of forecast rental housing demand is anticipated to be in the form of high-density households. Rental housing is anticipated to represent close to half the Region’s total high-density housing demand over the next 30 years, equally driven by demand from both the primary and secondary rental housing market. o Forecast demand for rental housing is expected across a broad range of age groups but is anticipated to be highest amongst adults between 25 and 54 years of age and older seniors in the 75+ age group. Figure ES-3 York Region Housing Growth Forecast by Structure Type and Tenure, 2021 to 2051 Low Density1 Medium Density2 High Density3 Total Percentage Housing Share Total Renter-Occupied Housing Forecast 7,500 22,600 56,100 86,200 32% Renter-Occupied Housing Forecast by Structure Type 9%26%65%100% Total Owner-Occupied Housing Forecast 4 66,300 59,900 60,700 186,900 68% Owner-Occupied Housing Forecast by Structure Type 35%32%32%100% Total Household Forecast 5 73,800 82,500 116,800 273,100 100% Total Household Forecast by Structure Type 27%30%43%100% Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2021. 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back-to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. 4 Includes freehold and condominium units. 5 Based on York Region draft MCR Housing Forecast. Page 158 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE ix \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Q3. Is the York Region long-term housing forecast by structure type prepared as part of the York Region draft MCR appropriate? A3. Yes, the analysis prepared as part of this Foundational Housing Report supports the findings of the draft York Region MCR with respect to forecast long-term housing demand by structure type. •In accordance with the York Region draft MCR housing forecast, the York Region 2021 to 2051 percentage housing forecast by structure type is 27% for low- density, 30% for medium-density and 43% for high-density dwellings.1 The York Region draft MCR housing forecast by structure type: o Appropriately recognizes recent shifts in residential building permit activity in York Region from low-density dwellings toward medium- and high- density housing forms; o Recognizes further anticipated shifts toward medium- and high-density residential development which are exhibited in active residential plans; and o Anticipates a more balanced mix of ownership and rental housing demand relative to recent trends. As York Region Continues to Mature and Urbanize the Composition of its Households are Anticipated to Diversify •Demand for grade-related housing will largely be driven by Census families, which are relatively large with respect to average household size or persons per unit (PPU). •It is important to note, however, that the share of Census non-family households, which typically have lower household sizes, has been recently increasing across York Region. This emphasizes the importance of providing a range of households by structure type and building size. 1 For the purposes of this analysis, low-density housing includes singles and semis, medium-density housing includes townhouses (including stacked townhouses) and duplexes, and high-density housing includes all other apartment units. Page 159 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE x \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Q4. A4. Is a minimum 50% residential intensification target for York Region from 2021 to 2051 appropriate? Should York Region target a higher residential intensification target? Yes, a minimum 50% residential intensification target is recommended as the preferred long-term residential intensification scenario for the Region. This intensification target appropriately considers recent residential housing development patterns by geographic area as well as anticipated near-term and longer-term housing demand within the BUA and DGA. A 50% Residential Intensification Target would Represent an Increase in the Absolute Amount of Housing Growth within the York Region BUA Relative to Recent Historical Trends •Between 2006 and 2020, approximately 4,000 housing residential building permits were issued annually within the York Region BUA. Since 2006, the Region’s share of residential development activity within the BUA has steadily increased, from 45% during the 2006 to 2010 period, to 54% from 2016 to 2019. During this same time period, the share of new residential development with the BUA has steadily shifted towards high-density housing types, as remaining vacant lands available to accommodate low-density housing have been absorbed. •Under a 50% residential intensification target, approximately 4,600 new households would be required to be built on an annual basis within the BUA between 2021 and 2051. Relative to the amount of residential intensification achieved between 2006 and 2021, a 50% residential intensification target would represent a 15% increase in the annual level of housing growth allocated to the BUA. At this time, a higher residential intensification target beyond 50% is not considered a likely scenario. •As previously noted in the York Region Foundational Housing Brief, York Region has recently made significant transit infrastructure investments within the BUA. These investments have played, and will continue to play, a key role in the Region’s recent success regarding residential intensification over the next 30 years. Page 160 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xi \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Q5. A5. How are future trends regarding housing affordability in York Region anticipated to impact demand for rental and ownership housing? Are there particular types of rental and ownership housing for which more supply is needed to accommodate demand? Housing affordability represents a key driver behind the need for a broader range of ownership and rental housing products geared toward medium- and high-density households. Housing Demand for Ownership Housing is Anticipated to Remain Strong Across York Region •The home ownership market in York Region is expected to remain strong over the long term. Owner-occupied housing growth is expected to be comprised of a mix of freehold and condominium development with a range of low-, medium-and high-density dwellings. Demand for grade-related ownership housing is anticipated to be largely driven by middle- and high-income Census families. Low-Density Ownership Housing Needs •Forecast demand for low-density ownership housing in York Region will continue to be strongest amongst high-income households that can afford premium- priced homes above an average price point of $950,000; however, minimal market choice exists for homes priced under this average. Medium-Density Ownership Housing Needs •Relative to low-density housing, York Region offers a greater supply of medium- density housing to accommodate anticipated demand associated with high- income households across York Region. •Over the past decade, however, York Region has experienced significant price appreciation in medium-density housing which has eroded housing affordability for this form of housing to middle-income households. Page 161 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xii \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx •Middle-income, working-age families represent the largest market for medium- density ownership housing across York Region; however, few middle-income households can afford to purchase a medium-density home in York Region.2 High-Density Ownership Housing Needs •York Region is anticipated to require a greater share of smaller condominium units in the market over the next three decades than what has been constructed over the past 10 years. •This need for smaller condominium units (studio) is anticipated to be significant, representing approximately 53% of high-density ownership housing demand. Demand for smaller condominium units is expected to be largely driven by low- income households in the 75+ age group. •Demand for larger (2 bedroom+) condominium units is projected to make up approximately 23% of the demand for high-density ownership households. Demand for larger apartments is anticipated to be comprised primarily from high-income households. Continue to Explore Opportunities to Increase the Supply of Purpose-Built Rental Housing •In recent years, demand for rental housing in York Region has largely been satisfied by the secondary rental market. This includes condominium units rented by owners and second suites as well as non-profit housing development. The secondary rental market is expected to continue to supply the majority of ground- oriented rental housing. •Based on the findings of this study, it is projected that just under 40% of overall renter household growth during the 2021 to 2051 period will need to be accommodated through the primary rental market, totalling approximately 32,800 new purpose-built rental households. 2 For the purposes of this report, low-income households are defined as those that earn an annual household income of less than $65,000 per year, middle-income households are defined as those that earn an annual household income between $65,000 and under $104,000, while high-income households are defined as those that earn an annual household income of $104,000 or more per year. Page 162 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xiii \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx Q6. A6. Are there potential risks for York Region if the housing supply is not well- aligned with the anticipated long-term needs of existing and future residents? Improving the alignment of the housing stock by type, location, tenure, and affordability against the needs of the population by age and income level is a fundamental long-term goal for York Region. Improved alignment between housing supply and demand is essential for York Region to achieve its long-term population and employment allocation to the year 2051. Ultimately, if mismatches persist between housing supply and demand, existing residents and potential new home buyers may consider alternative housing options within the broader regional market area outside York Region. Continue to Address Gaps in Housing Affordability to Better Align Housing Demand and Supply across York Region •If York Region is unable to address the housing affordability gaps identified herein, the following combination of outcomes are likely: o An increasing share of lower-and middle-income households will need to spend a greater than 30% share of household income on shelter costs in York Region. o Households may need to settle for housing arrangements that meet their affordability needs but do not necessarily meet their functional needs which may impact quality of life. This could include living arrangements in smaller than desired dwellings. o An increased percentage of young adults would be expected to defer entry into the rental or ownership housing market, combined with an overall increase in multiple family/multi-generation living arrangements. o A greater share of lower- and middle-income households than what has been presented herein will likely rent and not purchase, placing greater pressure on both the primary and secondary rental markets. o Households may consider less-expensive housing options in other locations within the broader regional market area outside York Region. If York Region is unable to attract the target market segments identified in Page 163 of 295 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xiv \\10.0.0.52\HDrive\York Region\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis\Deliverables\Draft Report\Revised Report\York Region Foundational Housing Analysis - Draft Report January 2021 Revised.docx the forecast presented herein, the Region will have difficulty in meeting its long-term population and housing forecast to 2051. Q7. Are there recommended actions that York Region and its partners should take to help ensure that housing supply in York Region is better aligned with the anticipated long-term needs of the Region’s existing and future residents? A7. Yes, opportunities exist through land-use planning tools and financial incentives to better align the anticipated long-term needs of the Region’s existing and future residents. Recommended approaches to address the Region’s affordable housing needs are summarized below: •Work with public- and private-sector partners to increase the supply of medium-density ownership housing opportunities geared toward younger families and middle-income households. •Encourage the development of a broad range of condominium units by size and price. •Continue to explore approaches to expand the Region’s purpose-built rental housing inventory. •Explore land-use planning tools and financial incentives to better align the anticipated long-term needs of the Region’s existing and future residents, such as: o Municipal fee exemptions, discounting or deferrals; o Land donation or discounting; o Tax increment equivalent grants; o Reduced parking requirements; o Flexibility in building height and set back requirements; and o Inclusionary zoning. Page 164 of 295 ATTACHMENT 4 Page 165 of 295 Page 166 of 295 Page 167 of 295 ATTACHMENT 5 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment Draft Consultation Approach Type of Engagement Q2/early Q3 2021 Local Municipal Staff 1:1 meetings - feedback on proposed forecasts and land needs Local municipal working group discussions / feedback Development Industry Feedback from BILD on proposed forecasts and land needs Planning Advisory Committee Feedback on proposed forecasts and land needs Public Consultation Inform and request feedback on proposed forecasts and land needs Online engagement coordinated with consultation on Master Plans and with proposed Regional Official Plan policy directions and topic areas (e.g. Housing) Online engagement through platforms such as York Region Have your say web page, social media, surveys, and/or others Virtual public open house York Region staff presentations to local Councils As requested Local municipal Council positions on draft forecasts Requested no later than July 15, 2021 Page 168 of 295 May 18, 2021 Proposed 2051 Forecast and Land Needs Assessment Presented to AURORA GENERAL COMMITTEE Presented by Paul Bottomley Manager, Policy, Research, and Forecasting Page 169 of 295 Objectives 2 1.Provincial Forecast & Land Needs Assessment results 2.Proposed urban expansion mapping 3.Forecasts by local municipality 4.Integrated Growth Management 5.Next Steps Page 170 of 295 Province Anticipates York Region to Attract Highest Share of Growth in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area 3 Page 171 of 295 York Region is Required to Conform to Provincial Plans 4 Mandated Provincial Land Needs Assessment Methodology is used to determine urban land needs Page 172 of 295 Growth Plan Sets Key Growth Targets •Planning to 2051 •Minimum Intensification target of 50% •Minimum Designated Greenfield Area density target of 50 residents and jobs per hectare •Emphasis on "market based" approach 5 Key inputs in Provincial Land Needs Assessment methodology result in urban expansion needs Page 173 of 295 6 2051 Provincial Land Needs Assessment Results Need for 1,100 Ha of Employment land •345,000 new jobs required •Growth in knowledge based, transportation/ warehousing industries •Assumed COVID-19 will not impact long term forecast •Employment area demand-supply analysis determines land need Need for 2,300 Ha of Community land •276,000 new units required •Minimum 50% intensification target (138,000 units) •DGA demand -supply analysis determines need for urban expansion Page 174 of 295 York Region Well Positioned to Meet 50% Intensification Target 7 Watson identifies that 50% intensification is appropriate Page 175 of 295 Whitebelt Area Considerations 8 Page 176 of 295 Proposed Geography of Urban Expansion -Southeast 9 Municipality Proposed Urban Expansion (ha) Community Land (ha) Employment Land (ha) Markham 1,490 1,270 220 Whitchurch- Stouffville 375 280 95 Page 177 of 295 Proposed Geography of Urban Expansion -Southwest 10 Municipality Proposed Urban Expansion (ha) Community Land (ha) Employment Land (ha) Vaughan 1,210 500 710 King 80 70 10 Page 178 of 295 Proposed Geography of Urban Expansion -North 11 Municipality Proposed Urban Expansion (ha) Community Land (ha) Employment Land (ha) East Gwillimbury 245 180 65 Page 179 of 295 Forecasts by Local Municipality Page 180 of 295 Proposed Population Forecast by Local Municipality 13 Page 181 of 295 14 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Aurora East Gwillimbury Georgina King Markham Newmarket Richmond Hill Vaughan Whitchurch StouffvilleUnit GrowthBuilt-up area Designated greenfield area (incl. urban expansion) Growth distribution and intensification targets 45%3%28%35% 52% 86% 77% 56% 21% Page 182 of 295 Proposed Employment Forecast by Local Municipality 15 41,000 37,400 21,900 16,400 309,200 57,600 122,600 352,000 31,900 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Aurora East Gwillimbury Georgina King Markham Newmarket Richmond Hill Vaughan Whitchurch StouffvilleEmployment20162051 Page 183 of 295 Aurora Historical and Proposed Population Growth by 10 - year period 16 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051Average Annual Population GrowthPage 184 of 295 Population and Employment Growth Considerations –Aurora 17 •Balanced growth –greenfield and intensification •Greenfield growth in Aurora South, Aurora 2C, and 2A •Approximately 1/3 of new unit growth anticipated in apartments •Intensification rate anticipated to increase from 29% to 45% •Average density of 55 people/jobs proposed across the Aurora Designated Greenfield Area •Employment land employment growth along Highway 404 expected to drive job growth •Town activity rate forecast to remain stable at 1 job for every 2 people in 2051 (50%) Page 185 of 295 Integrated Growth Management Page 186 of 295 York Region is Entering a Mature Stage of Growth •Significant investments in infrastructure have been made •Experiencing a lower rate of growth •Fiscal Strategy was put in place to manage debt •An estimated $11.6B in new infrastructure is required to 2051 •Managing debt and borrowing capacity for next generation of infrastructure 19 Phasing growth and infrastructure will be key to mitigate risk Page 187 of 295 20 Transit Investment will be Key to Support 2051 Growth •$5.6B Yonge-North Subway Extension •$5.4B investment required in unfunded bus rapid transit infrastructure Bus Rapid Transit Project Preliminary Estimated Cost ($M) Highway 7 East $437 Highway 7 West $297 Yonge Street (Central York)$713 Yonge Street (North)$184 Major MacKenzie Drive $1,250 Jane Street $313 Leslie Street $470 Other future BRT $1,690 Funding from Senior levels of government is essential to service growth Page 188 of 295 21 Phasing Policies needed in the Regional Official Plan •Magnitude of growth to 2051 -cannot happen everywhere at once •Growth in new areas is dependent on major infrastructure projects •Phasing ensures urban expansion is aligned with planned infrastructure delivery and actual growth •Possible approaches include: •Policy driven, local municipal implementation •Designation driven, Regional implementation Page 189 of 295 •Policy driven, local municipal implementation •Strengthen phasing requirements for local municipalities •Designation driven, Regional implementation •Urban expansion areas released in phases •Prioritizing areas with lower per capita costs, more certainty, and greater potential return on investment •Tying the timing of release of new growth areas to population thresholds and/or a sustained intensification rate of 50% 22 Potential Approaches to Phasing in the Regional Official Plan Page 190 of 295 Next Steps 23 •Consultation –Spring/Summer 2021 •Local municipalities •Public •Development industry •Policy Directions Report III (including additional direction on phasing) •Draft Regional Official Plan –Targeted for Fall 2021 •Master Plans and Development Charges Bylaw update – 2021/2022 Page 191 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora General Committee Report No. CS21 -017 Subject: Modernized Noise By-law Prepared by: Alexander Wray – Manager Bylaw Services Department: Corporate Services Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That Report No. CS21-017 be received; and 2. That the proposed Noise By-law be brought forward to a future Council meeting for enactment, repealing and replacing the current Noise By-law No. 4787-06.P. Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to seek Council’s approval to implement a new Noise By- law. The proposed Noise By-law will modernize existing legislation; introduce an exemption request process for construction activities and support the future transition to the Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS).  As part of a continued review of the Town’s current by-law legislation, Bylaw Services has identified that the existing Noise By-law is outdated and does not address current community expectations and changing legislative requirements.  Staff are recommending the implementation of a new Noise By-law due to changing community expectations and resident feedback in public consultation.  Recent changes to the Municipal Act have changed the authority and scope of Municipal Noise By-laws.  Residents and Business owners have been consulted through Public Consultation on the modernization of the Noise By-law.  The Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS) allows for effective and efficient enforcement of the Town’s by-laws. Page 192 of 295 May 18, 2021 2 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 Background At the Council meeting of September 10, 2019 the following motion carried; “Now Therefore Be It Hereby Resolved that staff follow what is happening in City of Toronto and other municipalities, and begin the process of a comprehensive review of the Town’s Noise By-law” At the Council meeting of September 24, 2019 a noise exemption request to permit pouring and finishing of a cast-in-place concrete slab was brought forward for consideration. The exemption request was approved as the process for concrete slabs is scientific and the results are an engineered product. As part of the recommendation the following direction was provided to staff; “That a by-law to amend Noise By-law No. 4787-06.P be brought forward to a future Council meeting providing delegated authority to staff for the approval of noise exemptions for continuous pouring of concrete that cannot be interrupted once the operations have commenced” Due to the comprehensive review of our existing legislation and comparing the proposed by-law provisions to those which exist in other municipalities, staff were unable to provide a track changes document with a direct comparison to our current legislation as the proposed by-law is completely new and not amending legislation. Analysis As part of a continued review of the Town’s current by-law legislation, Bylaw Services has identified that the existing Noise By-law is outdated and does not address current community expectations and changing legislative requirements. Upon conducting a review of the City of Toronto’s recent Noise By-law amendments, Toronto introduced stronger noise restrictions in multi-dwelling and multi-use occupancies while also reducing restrictions for common noises which would reasonably occur in a heavily urbanized environment. The proposed Noise By-law will be inclusive of appropriate feedback received during the public consultation, while introducing a process for noise exemption requests related to construction activities. It also incorporates recent Municipal Act amendments related to noise and includes the framework and provisions for the future implementation of the Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS). While the proposed Noise By-law was being developed, staff referenced by-laws in neighbouring municipalities to ensure Page 193 of 295 May 18, 2021 3 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 consistency. Bylaw and Legal Services have worked with the Region of York – Prosecution Services to ensure the provisions contained in the proposed by-law are fair and equitable for Town residents and stakeholders. The proposed By-law is a newly created document and therefore tracked changes to the current by-law are not available. A high-level overview of the changes are identified on Attachment #3. Staff are recommending the implementation of a new Noise By-law due to changing community expectations and resident feedback in our public consultation. The Town’s current Noise By-law #4787-06 was implemented in 2006 and was designed to support the Town’s previous Zoning By-law and makes reference to Land Use Zones as defined in the previous Bylaw. Since that time the Town has experienced significant population growth, intensification, and changing community expectations relating to Noise concerns. Service requests relating to the Town’s Noise By-law have increased significantly since the implementation of the current by-law (See graph below). In March 2020, Bylaw Services worked with Corporate Communications to engage residents, businesses, and stakeholders in a public consultation to better understand community concerns and incorporate them into a modernized Noise By-law. Bylaw Services sought to find an equal balance between respecting property rights and providing flexibility for events like birthday parties, weddings, and religious holidays. The results of the public consultation can be found on Attachment #2 of this report. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Annual Noise Complaints -10 Years Total Annual Complaints Page 194 of 295 May 18, 2021 4 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 Recent changes to the Municipal Act have changed the authority and scope of Municipal Noise By-laws. The Provincial Government has recently amended the Municipal Act with wording which speaks to Noise regulations relating to the delivery of goods. The amendments stipulate: “a municipality does not have the power to prohibit and regulate with respect to noise made in the municipality in connection with the delivery of goods to any of the following, except as otherwise authorized by regulation: 1. Retail Business Establishments 2. Restaurants including cafes and bars. 3. Hotels and motels 4. Goods distribution facilities” This amendment is not in force yet, however, as a result of these changes, municipalities may not be able to regulate noise resulting from the activities listed above. In April 2020, the Provincial government introduced a regulation to the Municipal Act which suspended the enforcement of municipal by-laws relating to noise caused by construction activity. The regulation is in effect for a period of 18 months and permits construction work to occur between 6 am and 10 pm, 7 days per week. Further, the regulation also does not permit regulation of noise at any time resulting from construction activities related to the healthcare sector. As a result of these changes, the provisions in the proposed by-law relating to construction noise will not be enforceable between the hours of 6 am to 10 pm until the Provincial regulation is no longer applicable. Residents and Business owners have been consulted through Public Consultation on the modernization of the Noise By-law. In March 2020 Bylaw Services engaged Town residents and stakeholders in a Public Consultation. The public consultation occurred over PlaceSpeak and received approximately 70 responses through the survey and forum discussion (Attachment #2 – Public Consultation Results). Feedback was focused in the following three areas: 1. Residential Noise (Weddings, Birthdays, Domestic Noise, Outdoor Music) 2. Construction Noise (Work relating to permitted construction projects) Page 195 of 295 May 18, 2021 5 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 3. Vehicle Noise (Loud exhausts) Through the modernization of the proposed Noise By-law, staff have addressed concerns outlined in item 1 by creating a general noise prohibition clause that addresses residents and businesses who cause or permit noise if it is audible from the point of reception. In an effort to provide clarity and stronger enforcement measures relating to construction noise, staff have made construction noise a defined term in the proposed by-law. Additionally, provisions have been included outlining a noise exemption process for construction projects. Bylaw Services will administer the exemption process with the department Manager having oversight of the process and delegated authority to approve or refuse. Exemption applications will require a non-refundable fee of $115.00 as outlined in Schedule “C” of the Town’s Fees and Charges By-law #6293-20. Requests will be granted for issues that are minor in nature and create minimal disruption to the surrounding community or required as part of construction methodologies such as poured concrete. Decisions of the Manager would be final, without a right to appeal. Should an exemption permit holder be found in non-compliance with the provisions outlined in their permit, Bylaw Services has the ability to revoke the permit at any time. As part of the public consultation process, many residents expressed concern over the constant sound of loud exhausts on motorcycles and vehicles. As part of our comprehensive review, Officers will be able to address vehicle related noise concerns on private property. However, any noise violations relating to vehicles traveling on a roadway are a Police matter and should be addressed under Section 75(1) of the Highway Traffic Act. The Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS) allows for effective and efficient enforcement of the Town’s By-laws. The Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS) is a judicial process that is outlined in Section 434.1 of the Municipal Act. The provisions allow for a municipality to issue penalty notices to an individual or corporation and adjudicate over the matter with an internal screening and hearing officer. Once the matter has been adjudicated, the Town retains the full amount of the issued fines. Currently as our fines issued are processed through Region of York Courts the Town only receives approximately 50% of fines collected. The AMPS system has proven extremely successful in a multitude of GTA municipalities including Richmond Hill, Markham, Newmarket, Vaughan, Oshawa, and Hamilton. Page 196 of 295 May 18, 2021 6 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 By approving the AMPS process at the implementation stage of this by-law, staff will avoid having to return at a future Council meeting to present amendments. Staff intend on presenting a report to Council later in the year to begin transition of all Town By-laws to the AMPS system. Advisory Committee Review N/A Legal Considerations Municipalities are granted powers under section 129 of the Municipal Act to prohibit and regulate with respect to noise and to institute a permitting system in relation to the same. Section 128 of the Municipal Act also grants municipalities powers to regulate with respect to nuisances. The proposed by-law will replace the Town’s current noise by-law and be instituted pursuant to the aforementioned authority. As discussed in the report, current provincial regulation does temporarily limit the powers of the Town to regulate construction activities between the hours of 6 am and 10 pm. Until such time as the provincial regulation is in force, the Town’s by-law will not apply to any construction activities in the times permitted by the province. Further, a provision in the Municipal Act has been enacted recently, although it has not yet been proclaimed into force, which does not permit municipalities to prohibit or regulate with respect to noise related to delivery of goods to retail business establishments, restaurants (including cafes and bars), hotels, motels and goods distribution facilities. Regulations are expected to be put in place to further specify how such activities will regulated and whether municipal by-law will have applicability to such activities. The Town’s noise by-law will be subject to such provisions and any regulations once they are proclaimed into force. At this stage, it is not known when these provisions will come into force and what will be part of the new regulations. Financial Implications When the transition to the Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS) occurs, it will result in the Town receiving all revenues from Penalty Notices associated with enforcement action relating to this by-law. Page 197 of 295 May 18, 2021 7 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 Communications Considerations In our review of the Town's existing Noise By-law, public consultation was conducted using PlaceSpeak, the Town’s online engagement platform at the time. The online consultation sought feedback and comments from residents, businesses, and stakeholders to help determine our next steps in our comprehensive review. The online consultation was open for approximately six weeks, from the beginning of March 2020 through to April 17, 2020. The consultation provided a variety of ways for residents to share their thoughts which included a survey or sharing their feedback in the discussion section of the consultation. The survey was intended to help guide staff in future policy decisions on some of the most common requests received relating to the existing Noise By-law. The consultation and opportunity to provide feedback was heavily publicized via the Town of Aurora website (a web banner was placed on the homepage throughout March), Town social media, the Town Noticeboard, and through the Town’s monthly e- newsletter Aurora Matters. Engagement results were likely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the declaration of a Global Pandemic by the WHO on March 11, followed by the declaration of a state of Emergency in Ontario on March 17, 2020. Link to Strategic Plan The proposed Noise By-law supports the Strategic Plan Goal of Supporting an Exceptional Quality of Life for all. Alternative(s) to the Recommendation 1. Council not approve bringing forward the new Noise By-law for enactment. The current outdated by-law would remain in effect which does not meet community expectations and refers to land use zones of the previous Zoning By-law. 2. Council provide direction. Conclusions For the reasons outlined in this report, Staff recommend that the new Noise By-law be approved and enacted at a future Council meeting. Page 198 of 295 May 18, 2021 8 of 8 Report No. CS21-017 Attachments Attachment #1 – Noise By-law Draft Attachment #2 – Public Consultation Results Attachment #3 – Summary of Changes Previous Reports CS19-034 - Noise Exemption Request – 25 Butternut Ridge Trail, September 10, 2019 Pre-submission Review Agenda Management Team review on April 29, 2021 Approvals Approved by Techa Van Leeuwen, Director, Corporate Services Approved by Doug Nadorozny, Chief Administrative Officer Page 199 of 295 Attachment # 1 NOISE BY-LAW DRAFT COPY The Corporation of the Town of Aurora By-law Number XXXX-21 Being a By-law to prohibit and regulate noise in the Town of Aurora. Whereas Subsection 8(1) of the Municipal Act provides that powers of a municipality shall be interpreted broadly so as to confer broad authority on the municipality to enable the municipality to govern its affairs as it considers appropriate and to enhance the municipality’s ability to respond to municipal issues; And whereas section 9 of the Municipal Act, 2001, S.O. 2001, c. 25, as amended (the “Municipal Act”), provides that a municipality has the capacity, rights, powers and privileges of a natural person; And whereas it is in the public interest to reduce the noise level in the Town of Aurora, so as to preserve, protect and promote public health, safety, welfare and peace and quiet of the inhabitants of the Town; And whereas subsection 11(3) of the Municipal Act provides that a local municipality may pass by-laws respecting economic, social and environmental well-being of the municipality, respecting health, safety and well-being of persons, and respecting protection of persons and property; And whereas section 129 of the Municipal Act provides that, without limiting sections 9 and 11 of the Municipal Act, a municipality may prohibit and regulate with respect to noise, vibration and to prohibit the same unless a permit is obtained from the municipality for those matters and that the municipality may impose conditions for obtaining, continuing to hold and renewing the permit, including requiring the submission of plans; And whereas section 128 of the Municipal Act provides that a municipality may prohibit and regulate with respect to public nuisances, including matters that, in the opinion of Council are or could become public nuisances; And whereas in the opinion of Council for the Town of Aurora, certain kinds of noise are or could become a public nuisance; NOW THEREFORE, the Council of The Corporation of the Town of Aurora enacts as follows: Page 200 of 295 Attachment # 1 1. Definitions 1.1. In this by-law, the following words have the following meanings: (a) "Construction" includes erection, alteration, repair, dismantling, demolition, structural maintenance, painting, moving, land clearing, earth moving, grading, excavating, the laying of pipe and conduit whether above or below ground level, street and highway building, concreting, equipment installation and alteration and the structural installation of construction components and materials in any form for any purpose, and includes any work, delivery or movement of any equipment or materials in connection therewith; (b) "Council" means the council of the Town; (c) "Director" means the department head responsible for the Bylaw Services division of the Town, or his/her designate or successor; (d) "Manager" means the manager of the Bylaw Services division or his/her designate or successor; (e) "Municipal Act" means the Municipal Act, 2001, S.O. 2001, c. 25, as amended or successor thereto; (f) "Noise" means a sound that a person finds disturbing to their peace, rest, enjoyment, comfort or convenience; (g) "Officer" means a person appointed by the Town as a Municipal Law Enforcement Officer and any police officer; (h) "Person" includes an individual, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited partnership, trust or body corporate, or an individual in his or her capacity as a trustee, executor, administrator or other legal representative; (i) "Residential Abutting" means any property or business that is located adjacent to a property that is zoned as a Residential Zone, as identified in section 2.1 of the Zoning By-law; Page 201 of 295 Attachment # 1 (j) "Residential Renovation" means any Construction on a property that is zoned as residential or on a property that permits residential use under the Zoning By-law that is conducted by: (i) a property owner on his or her own property, or (ii) an occupant or tenant on a property on which they ordinarily reside, but shall not include any Construction by a person hired by the property owner; (k) "Town" means The Corporation of the Town of Aurora and/or the geographical limits of the Town of Aurora, depending on the context of the provision in which the term appears; (l) "Waste" means any discarded or unwanted material including, but not limited to, garbage, recyclable material, debris, refuse, compostable material, excrement, ashes, packing material, cans, bottles, mechanical equipment, cardboard, grass clippings, tree branches, or leaves; (m) “Zoning By-law” means the Zoning By-law of the Town of Aurora as amended or successor legislation thereto. 2. Prohibitions 2.1. No person shall make, emit, cause, or permit any repetitive noise if the noise is audible at the point of reception. 2.2. Notwithstanding Section 2.1, the prohibition set out in Section 2.1 does not apply to: (a) noise resulting from Construction activity, (b) noise resulting from Residential Renovation, and (c) noise resulting from collection, disposal or emptying of Waste using mechanical means. 2.3. No person shall make, emit, cause or permit any noise resulting from any Construction activity that is audible at a point of reception during the following times: (a) on any statutory holiday, Page 202 of 295 Attachment # 1 (b) from 8:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. the following day, Monday to Friday, (c) from 8:00 p.m. on Friday to 9:00 a.m. on Saturday, and (d) From 5:00 p.m. on Saturday to 7:00 a.m. on Monday. 2.4. No person shall make, emit, cause or permit any noise resulting from any Residential Renovation activity that is audible at a point of reception during the following times: (a) from 9:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. the following day, Monday to Saturday, and (b) from 8:00 p.m. on Saturday to 9:00 a.m. on Sunday, and (c) from 5:00 p.m. on Sunday to 7:00 a.m. on Monday. 2.5. No person shall make, emit, cause or permit any noise resulting from the collection, disposal or emptying of Waste using mechanical means from any Residential Abutting property during the following times: (a) from 11:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. the following day. 3. Exemptions 3.1. Despite any other provisions of this by-law, it shall be lawful to make, emit, cause or permit the emission of sound as a result of or as part conducting the activities listed in Schedule "A". 3.2. Any person may apply for an exemption permit from the noise limitation provision in Section 2.2 in connection with Construction activities by submitting an application to the Manager. The form, content, terms, conditions and requirements of the application for the exemption shall be as prescribed by the Manager from time to time and the Manager may, without limiting the Manager’s authority to prescribe the application and its form, content, terms, conditions and requirements, require as part of an application: (a) description of the construction activity that the applicant wishes to have exempted; (b) description of the time(s) and location(s) for which the exemption is being sought; Page 203 of 295 Attachment # 1 (c) the name, address and telephone number of the applicant; (d) explanation of why the exemption is being sought; and (e) application fee as outlined in the Town’s Fees and Charges By-Law. 3.3. Upon receipt of an application for a noise exemption under Section 3.2 and any applicable fees, the Manager shall make investigations as necessary to assess the application and consider the evaluation criteria outlined herein, including the consideration of any submissions from neighbouring property owners or occupants, and may: (a) issue a noise exemption permit after receipt of a complete application; (b) in the case of an approved application for a noise exemption, impose such terms and conditions on the permit as deemed appropriate by the Manager: (i) for the protection of any public infrastructure and property abutting the area subject to the permit, (ii) for the protection of health, safety and well-being of persons and the environment, (iii) for the purposes of ensuring that areas and persons affected by the exemption are kept informed with respect to activities subject to the exemption; (iv) for the purposes of administration of the permit and the operations of the Town, (v) for the purposes of protecting the Town interests with respect to any risks associated with the activities pursuant to the permit, and (vi) to satisfy any requirements of this by-law or any other applicable legislation. (c) refuse to issue a noise exemption permit if: (i) the application is not completed, all the information as required under this by-law is not provided or the application does not meet all the requirements of this by-law, Page 204 of 295 Attachment # 1 (ii) in the opinion of the Manager, based on the evaluation criteria set out in this by-law, the noise exemption is unwarranted or not in the public interest, or (iii) the required fees are not provided. 3.4. As part of reviewing and evaluating any application for a noise exemption, the Manager shall consider: (a) the necessity for the noise exemption and any undue hardship and difficulty for the applicant if such exemption is not provided; (b) any negative impact, including on the health, welfare and safety, on any persons that may be affected by the noise exemption. 3.5. Any decision of the Manager pursuant to this Section shall be final without a right to appeal to the Council. 4. Administration and Enforcement 4.1. The Director and the Manager shall be responsible for and are delegated the power to administer and enforce this by-law, including prescribing the content of any forms or other documents required under this by-law. 4.2. The Manager shall be responsible for and is delegated the power to issue, revoke, suspend, set conditions of, process and administer noise exemption permits and any related applications. 4.3. The Director, the Manager and Officers are hereby delegated the authority to enforce this by-law, including the authority to conduct inspections pursuant to this by-law, the Municipal Act, as amended, and any other applicable by-law or legislation. 4.4. The Director is authorized to delegate responsibilities for the administration and enforcement of this by-law to any Town staff or external third parties deemed to be qualified and appropriate by the Director for such purposes. 5. Power of Entry, Inspection, Prohibitions 5.1 A Municipal Law Enforcement Officer, or any other individual authorized to enforce this by-law on behalf of the Town, may at any reasonable time enter upon any land for the purpose of carrying out an inspection to determine whether the following are being complied with: Page 205 of 295 Attachment # 1 (a) this by-law; (b) any permit issued pursuant to this by-law, (c) any direction or order under this by-law; (d) an order issued under section 431 of the Municipal Act. 5.2 Where an inspection is conducted pursuant to this section, a Municipal Law Enforcement Officer or any other individual authorized to enforce this by-law on behalf of the Town, may: (a) require the production for inspection of documents or things relevant to the inspection; (b) inspect and remove documents or things relevant to the inspection for the purpose of making copies and extracts; (c) require information from any person concerning a matter related to the inspection; and (d) alone or in conjunction with a person possessing special or expert knowledge, make examinations or take tests, samples or photographs necessary for the purpose of the inspection. 5.3 No Person shall hinder or obstruct or attempt to hinder or obstruct the Town, its employees, officers or agents from carrying out any powers or duties under this by-law. 5.4 No Person shall fail to comply with, or contravene, any order or direction issued by the Town pursuant to this by-law or the Municipal Act. 5.5 Where an Officer, or an individual authorized to enforce this by-law, has reasonable grounds to believe that an offence has been committed by any Person, they may require the name, address and proof of identity of that Person, and the Person shall supply the required information. 5.6 No Person shall decline or neglect to give, produce or deliver any information, document or other thing that is requested by the Town pursuant to this by-law. 5.7 No Person shall knowingly make, participate in, assent to or acquiesce in the provision of false information in a statement, affidavit, application or other document prepared, submitted or filed under this by-law. 6. Orders Page 206 of 295 Attachment # 1 6.1 Where the Manager or any Municipal Law Enforcement Officer is satisfied that a contravention of this by-law has occurred, such Manager or Municipal Law Enforcement Officer may make an order requiring that the person who caused or permitted such contravention, or the owner or occupier of the land on which the contravention occurred, to discontinue the contravening activity and/or to do work to correct the contravention. 6.2 An order pursuant to this section shall set out the following: (a) reasonable particulars identifying the location of the land on which the contravention occurred; (b) reasonable particulars of the contravention; (c) what is required of the Person subject to the order (i.e., what activity is to be seized and/or actions or work to be done); (d) the date by which there must be compliance with the order and/or, if any work is ordered, the date by which any such work must be done; and (e) information regarding the Town's contact person. 6.3 An order pursuant to this Section shall be deemed to have been received upon: (a) personal service of the order on the Person subject to the order; (b) one day after transmission of the order through electronic means to an email or social media address provided by the Person subject to the order; (c) one day after posting the order in a conspicuous location on the property subject to the order; (d) the fifth (5th) day after the order is sent by registered mail to the last known address of the Person who is subject to the order. 6.4 In the case where there is evidence that the occupant of the land subject to an order is not the registered property owner, such order shall be served on both the registered property owner and the occupant of the land. 7. Remedial Action and Cost Recovery Page 207 of 295 Attachment # 1 7.1 Wherever this by-law or an order issued under this by-law directs or requires any matter or thing to be done by any Person within a specified time period, in default of it being done by the Person directed or required to do it, the action may be taken under the direction of the Director or an Officer at that Person’s expense and the Town may recover the costs incurred through a legal action or by recovering the costs in the same manner as taxes. 7.2 For the purposes of taking remedial action under this Section, the Town, its staff and/or its agents may enter, at any reasonable time, upon any lands on which a default to carry out a required thing or matter occurred. 8. Offences and Penalties 8.1 Every Person who contravenes any provision of this by-law is guilty of an offence and upon conviction is liable to a fine as provided for in the Provincial Offences Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. P. 33, as amended. 8.2 Every Person who contravenes any order issued pursuant to this by-law is guilty of an offence and upon conviction is liable to a fine as provided for in the Provincial Offences Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. P. 33, as amended. 8.3 If a corporation has contravened a provision of this by-law, including an order issued under this by-law, every director and officer who knowingly concurred in such a contravention is guilty of an offence and upon conviction is liable to a fine as provided for in the Provincial Offences Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. P. 33, as amended. 8.4 Pursuant to Subsection 429(2) of the Act, all contraventions of this by-law or orders issued under this by-law are designated as continuing offences. If a contravention of any provision of this by-law has not been corrected, or an order issued under this by-law has not been complied with, the contravention of such a provision or an order shall be deemed to be a continuing offence for each day or part of a day that the contravention remains uncorrected or an order not complied with. 8.5 In addition to fines under this Section, a Person convicted of an offence under this by-law may be liable to a special fine in the amount of the economic advantage or gain that such a Person obtained from the contravention of this by-law. Page 208 of 295 Attachment # 1 8.6 Where a Person is convicted of an offence under this by-law, the court in which the conviction has been entered, and any court of competent jurisdiction thereafter, may make an order prohibiting the continuation or repetition of the offence by the Person convicted. 9. Administrative Penalties 9.1 Instead of laying a charge under the Provincial Offences Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. P. 33, as amended, for a breach of any provision of this by-law, an individual authorized to enforce this by-law on behalf of the Town may issue an administrative penalty to the Person who has contravened this by-law. 9.2 Individuals authorized to enforce this by-law on behalf of the Town have the discretion to either proceed by way of an administrative penalty or a charge laid under the Provincial Offences Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. P.33. If an administrative penalty is issued to a Person for the breach, no charge shall be laid against that same Person for the same breach. 9.3 The amount of the administrative penalty for a breach of a provision of this by-law, shall be as established pursuant to applicable Town by-laws. 9.4 A Person who is issued an administrative penalty shall be subject to the procedures as provided for in the applicable Town by-laws relating to administrative penalties. 9.5 An administrative penalty imposed on a Person pursuant to this by-law that is not paid within fifteen (15) days after the day it becomes due and payable, constitutes a debt of the Person to the Town and may be added to a municipal tax roll and collected in the same manner as municipal taxes. 10. Presumption 10.1 An Owner of a property on which a non-compliance or contravention has occurred shall be presumed to have carried out or caused or permitted to be carried out the non-compliance or contravention, which presumption may be rebutted by evidence to the contrary on a balance of probabilities. 11. Severability Page 209 of 295 Attachment # 1 11.1 If a court of competent jurisdiction declares any provision, or any part of a provision, of this by-law to be invalid or to be of no force and effect, it is the intention of the Town in enacting this by-law that such provision or part of a provision shall be severable, and such a decision shall not affect the validity of the remaining sections, subsections, clauses or phrases of this by-law. 12. Repeal 12.1 By-laws Number 4787.06.P as amended, are hereby repealed. 13. Effective Date 13.1 This by-law comes into full force and effect on the date of final passage hereof. Enacted by Town of Aurora Council this xxth day of xxx?, 202?. ___________________________________ Tom Mrakas, Mayor ___________________________________ Michael de Rond, Town Clerk Page 210 of 295 Attachment # 1 SCHEDULE "A" TO BY-LAW NUMBER# XXXX-20 EXEMPTED ACTIVITIES 1. Operation of emergency vehicles by police services, fire and paramedic services. 2. Any special event that is specifically approved by the Town, only to the extent of the authority for such event. 3. Any activities or operations undertaken by the Town. 4. Any Construction, rehabilitation or maintenance work conducted by the Province of Ontario, the Government of Canada and any of its agencies or agents including the operation of motor vehicles and equipment actually engaged in the work. 5. Any Construction, rehabilitation or maintenance work conducted by The Regional Municipality of York, the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, or any utility company, provided that reasonable prior notice of such activity is provided to Town. 6. Measures undertaken for the immediate health, safety or welfare of persons under emergency circumstances. 7. Operation of farm equipment or machinery for cultivating, seeding, crop maintenance, or harvesting on any lands on which agricultural use is permitted pursuant to the Zoning By-law. 8. Operation of bells, chimes, carillons and clocks in any building dedicated to religious worship, including a church, synagogue, temple, mosque, monastery or convent, between the hours of 7:00 a.m. to 10 p.m. of any day. 9. Operation of bells, chimes, carillons and clocks in any school when the school is open and in operation for students. 10. Operation of any transit vehicles, trains or equipment that is operated by any public transit authority, public government body, railroad authority or any agency of the aforementioned. 11. Operation of bells or horns utilized as traffic control devices, including the following: Page 211 of 295 Attachment # 1 (a) bells and other audible devices at traffic signal locations; and (b) bells and horns associated with railway crossings. 12. Snow removal activities that are necessary to render safe and/or operational any property on which a business, a school or a residential condominium is located. For clarity, this exemption does not extend to maintenance, staging and preparation of equipment that is used as part of such snow removal activities, unless such maintenance, staging or preparation is part of the snow removal activity and is conducted on, or in the immediate vicinity, of the property subject to the snow removal. Page 212 of 295 1 The data provided in this document outlines information collected on PlaceSpeak during the Town’s Noise By-law public consultation. The consultation occurred in March 2020 for a period of 30 days, received 516 views, and 31 comments from 76 participants. An in person consultation was initially scheduled, however due to restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 Pandemic the event was cancelled. This data is intended to assist staff in developing a modernized Noise By-law that encompasses a wide range of community concerns. Question 1: Do you believe that violations of the Noise By-law during the last 2 years have? Question 2: Do you believe the current Noise By-law is: 60%22% 17% 1% Increased Stayed the Same Unsure Decreased 61%15% 12% 12% Not Strong Enough Unsure Just Right Too Strong Attachment # 2Public Consultation Results Page 213 of 295 2 Question 3: Which of the following categories do you best identify as? Question 4: Which type of noise concerns do you frequently experience? 92% 6%2% Homeowner Business Owner Prefer not to disclose Institution 44% 27% 16% 7% 6% Domestic Noise Dogs Barking Construction Noise Delivieries & Pickup Commerical Noise Page 214 of 295 3 Question 5: Should the Town permit early morning deliveries and pickups in Commercial, Promenade, and Industrial Zones to reduce large vehicles on our roadways and help cutback daytime idling and congestion? Question 6: If a new by-law were to be implemented, do you believe it should be? 74% 26% Yes No 58%27% 13% 2% More Restrictive About the Same Less Restrictive Unsure Page 215 of 295 4 Question 7: Should the Town consider a Noise Exemption process for special events (Ex. Weddings, Parades, and Birthday Parties)? Question 8: Should the Town consider Noise Exemption requests for Construction Activities? 56% 25% 19% Yes No Unsure 67% 24% 9% No Yes Unsure Page 216 of 295 5 Question 9: Should residents be allowed to do exterior work on their own properties on the weekend? 75% 13% 12% Yes No Unsure Page 217 of 295 Attachment # 3 Summary of Changes As part of a comprehensive review process, the proposed Noise By-law was developed from the ground up. As a result, there are no track changes to reference the existing by-law. Below outlines a summary of the changes. 1. Noise Exemption Permit – Construction projects may apply for relief for work that meets the criteria established in Section 3 of the proposed by-law. The exemption process will provide authority to the Manager of Bylaw Services to make this decision. 2. Residential Renovations – The current Noise By-law prohibits any noise associated with home renovations/repairs on a Sunday. The proposed by-law will allow residents to work on their decks, paint windows, and complete other household tasks on Sunday’s between the hours of 9AM-5PM 3. Solid Waste Collection – In an attempt to reduce traffic on Town roadways and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large trucks idling, the proposed Noise By-law allows for Solid Waste collection between 5AM-11PM in areas that are not zoned residential or directly abut a residential area. 4. Administrative Monetary Penalties – The proposed by-law includes provisions for the Administrative Monetary Penalty System (AMPS). Once fully implemented, the AMPS system will allow the Town to administer our own fines and adjudication, while increasing revenue and efficiencies. 5. Definitions – The proposed Noise By-law has received many updates to the definitions section. Various definitions have been added, deleted, or updated to reflect changes in other forms of legislation and to support modernization. Page 218 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora General Committee Report No. CS21 -0 49 Subject: Single Source Technology Purchases – Ethernet Switches/Cell Phones/Computers Prepared by: Michael Mulvenna, Manager Information Technology Department: Corporate Services Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That Report No. CS21-049 be received; and 2. That a single source contract be awarded to Extreme Networks in the amount of $396,000 for the purchase of ethernet switches; and 3. That a single source contract be awarded to Rogers in the amount of $225,000 for the purchase of cell phones and cellular plans; and 4. That a single source contract be awarded to Dell in the amount of $1,000,000 for the purchase of computers. Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to seek Council approval to award three new single source technology contracts for the purposes of updating outdated technology while providing substantial cost savings to the Town.  Joining Provincial agreements such as Vendor of Records (VOR) and Ontario Education Collaborative Marketplace (OECM) agreements provides quality technology products that have already been procured through a competitive bidding process with the province  A single source procurement for Extreme Ethernet Switches is required for reasons of standardization and compatibility with existing infrastructure and that we join the provincial VOR agreement Page 219 of 295 May 18, 2021 2 of 7 Report No. CS21-049  A single source procurement for Rogers for our cellular phones and plans will create significant savings of approximately $198,000 over the next 3 years  A single source procurement for Dell for our end user computers will create significant savings of approximately $250,000 over the next 5 years Background Ethernet Switches The Town standardized on Extreme Networks ethernet switches in 2010. Over time they have proven to provide great performance, be dependable, help us ensure network resiliency, provide solid uptime, and are configurable to meet our changing needs. They are also priced less than some other well known ethernet switch manufacturers providing the Town good value for the investment. This infrastructure is beginning to age and has not been refreshed for over a decade. This introduces great risk to the Town as getting replacement parts or service from the manufacturer is no longer available. This applies to all three levels of our network infrastructure.  WAN switches provide connectivity of all Town buildings.  Core switches typically reside in a data centre (DC) and provide connectivity of servers, data storage, and IT appliances to all users.  Edge switches typically reside in wiring closets located at points in each building and provide all staff with a connection at their desks or offices. Cellular Phones and Plans The Town currently purchases cell phones and cellular plans through a single cellular provider. This contract will expire on September 28, 2021. We have been with our current vendor for about 11 years and over time this plan has become less competitive than offerings from other providers. Earlier this year, the Town’s IT department did a cost comparison of the big three providers – Bell, Rogers, and Telus. We discovered that Rogers offers the most competitive pricing by far. Bell and Telus were very close to each other in their plan costs. Page 220 of 295 May 18, 2021 3 of 7 Report No. CS21-049 End User Computers The Town has standardized on a vendor to provide laptops, desktops, and peripherals for many years now. In the last year or two, there have been some issues in the products being delivered in a timely manner. This has required the IT department to stock a few of each model of computer we use to meet user demand in a timely manner. The IT team also undertook a cost comparison of the three largest computer suppliers – namely Dell, HP, and Lenovo. We gave each vendor a very specific set of computer configurations and asked them to provide their OECM pricing for each. HP ended up being the most expensive, followed closely by Lenovo. Dell was the lowest price. Dell computers provide equal or better performance, and end user experience than our current vendor. Analysis Joining Provincial agreements such as Vendor of Record (VOR) and Ontario Education Collaborative Marketplace (OECM) provides the Town with quality technology products that have already been procured through a competitive bidding process with the province VOR and OECM agreements provide competitive pricing and discounts, and a variety of options to reduce overall cost to the Town. Many suppliers waive their shipping fees, provide enhanced warranty and customer service levels including convenient, efficient, and expeditious ordering processes. In essence, the Province conducted the procurement process to select the vendors. The Town does not have to repeat this process, and can piggyback on their agreements. The Province has vetted the vendors, ensured their products and services meet the specifications identified, and has followed a competitive process. The vendors are contractually obligated to provide the Province with the agreed upon pricing for the duration of the contract. Many other municipalities take advantage of these types of procurements. Savings are realized due to economies of scale. A single source procurement for Extreme Ethernet Switches is required for reasons of standardization and compatibility with existing infrastructure and that we join the provincial VOR agreement Page 221 of 295 May 18, 2021 4 of 7 Report No. CS21-049 The Town needs to refresh about 70% of our network ethernet switches as they are end of life. A single source is required to ensure compatibility with the remaining 30%. The manufacturer is not obligated to provide replacement units or parts or provide service to hardware at end of life which creates significant risk to the Town in the event of a switch failure. If a WAN switch fails an entire Town building would lose all network connectivity. A Core switch failure would result in a group of servers being unavailable to all staff. In either of these scenarios, staff would not have access to critical systems such as Customer Relationship Management (CRM), Maximo (asset management), Financial systems, and email. An Edge switch failure would result in a loss of connectivity for staff on a particular building floor. This could also affect the WiFi hotspots in each building impacting service levels to residents and loss of staff productivity. This type of failure could take days to resolve as spare parts/support are not available from the manufacturer. The Town’s network infrastructure was standardized on Extreme Network ethernet switches in 2010. The current investment in Extreme Networks switches has provided a solid network for the Town over the years at a reasonable price. We have also invested in building internal expertise in administering, configuring, and deploying these switches. Having a homogeneous network provides benefits in ease of administration and design. Refreshing and re-architecting the existing network will provide many benefits to the Town. The overall new network will be faster including between buildings, in the data centres, and to each desktop. The new network will be more resilient as we are building in redundancy in the new design. We are estimating the cost for the next two years to properly refresh our ethernet switching infrastructure to be $396,000. This cost is based on pricing we obtained from the Provincial VOR agreement. A single source procurement for Rogers for our cellular phones and plans will create significant savings of approximately $198,000 over the next 3 years Staff are recommending that the Town enter a VOR agreement with Rogers Mobility in order to obtain competitive pricing. Staff are estimating an annual cost savings of Page 222 of 295 May 18, 2021 5 of 7 Report No. CS21-049 approximately 50% by using Rogers for our cellular plans. It is anticipated that Rogers will provide equal or better service to the Town. Further, our current investment in cell phones will not be affected as the SIM cards in the current phones can simply be removed and replaced with a Rogers SIM card. Rogers also provides very competitive pricing for the cell phones therefore any phones that are due to be refreshed will be procured for a lower cost. The length of the VOR agreement is three years (1 year + optional 2 year extension) to which the estimated total savings will be approximately $198,000. To achieve these savings, we are requesting Council to approve the single source procurement request. A single source procurement for Dell for our end user computers will create significant savings of approximately $250,000 over the next 5 years We are recommending the Town use Dell Computers Canada as its end user computer supplier. We are estimating savings of approximately 20% in our end user computer acquisition costs while anticipating the Dell hardware will function equally or better than the current hardware. The duration of the Provincial OECM agreement is 5 years. Our estimates show that we will save approximately $250,000 over a five-year span. We are asking for Council to approve the single source procurement request to Dell through the current Provincial OECM agreement. Advisory Committee Review Not Applicable Legal Considerations The Town’s Procurement By-law requires that single source awards over $100,000 be approved by Council for staff to proceed with the proposed procurement. Applicable agreements will be entered into with the vendor for the services and will be reviewed by Legal Services. To see the pricing or contract details set out in the provincial agreements, the Town is required to enter into non-disclosure agreements for these procurements. As such, detailed pricing or contract details are confidential. Page 223 of 295 May 18, 2021 6 of 7 Report No. CS21-049 Financial Implications The total estimated contract costs for the proposed ethernet switches is $396,000 to be acquired over a two year time period. A detailed breakdown of this estimate can be found under Table 1. Table 1 Cost estimates for the Ethernet Switches are as follows: Switch Type 2021 2022 WAN Switch - Phase 1 $96,000.00 WAN Switch - Phase 2 $96,000.00 Core Switches $104,000.00 Edge Switches $100,000.00 Yearly total $96,000.00 $300,000.00 Total estimated cost $396,000.00 The switches must be acquired in two phases to minimize network downtime. Phase 1 will replace half of our WAN switches (six). Phase 2 will replace the other half (six) of the WAN switches. The ethernet switch replacement costs are to be funded from capital project No. 14047 – Computer & Related Infrastructure Renewal. The Town anticipates that it would recognize a total of $198,000 in cellular phone and plan operating budget savings over the duration of the proposed Rogers contract compared to its present costs. Furthermore, staff estimate that it will achieve approximately $250,000 in cumulative capital budget savings over the next 5 years through the proposed contract to purchase Dell computers over this time. These costs are to be funded from capital project No. 14047 – Computer & Related Infrastructure Renewal. All recognized savings will be allocated toward future IT equipment replacement costs. Communications Considerations Not Applicable Page 224 of 295 May 18, 2021 7 of 7 Report No. CS21-049 Link to Strategic Plan This report is directly linked to the Community Pillar of the Strategic Plan and more specifically Objective 2: Invest in sustainable infrastructure with a goal to maintain and expand infrastructure to support forecasted population growth through technology. Alternative(s) to the Recommendation 1. Council not approve the single source procurements. This would require us to go to tender and we would not get the financial benefit of the Provincial agreements. 2. Council provide direction. Conclusions For reasons outlined in this report staff is recommending joining the Provincial agreements for the Town and a positive end user experience. Attachments None Previous Reports None Pre-submission Review Agenda Management Team review on April 29, 2021 Approvals Approved by Techa van Leeuwen, Director, Corporate Services Approved by Doug Nadorozny, Chief Administrative Officer Page 225 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora General Committee Report No. FIN 21-0 21 Subject: Use of Safe Restart Grant Funding Prepared by: Laura Sheardown, Financial Management Advisor Department: Finance Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That Report No. FIN21-021 be received; and 2. That project #73292 – Picnic Tables, Benches and Garbage Receptacles have its total capital budget authority increased by $25,000, to $55,000, funded by Safe Restart grant; and 3. That project # 72469 – COVID-19 Related Facility Improvements be created with a total capital budget authority of $72,550, funded from the Safe Restart grant; and 4. That the Treasurer be delegated the authority to amend the funding source on Council approved projects to use Safe Restart grant funding as appropriate. Executive Summary This report provides a summary of Safe Restart grant funding received, uses so far and proposed expenditures for 2021.  Upon receipt of its recently announced third phase grant payment, the Town of Aurora will receive a total of $3.6 million in Safe Restart grant funding  Aurora’s planned use of its remaining grant funds in 2021 and 2022 will continue to focus on safety, community engagement and support for the downtown core recovery  Capital project approvals are soughtfrom Council to proceed with some of the priorities  Staff have earmarked a portion of the Safe Restart grant funding to cover operating pressures forecasted for 2022 Page 226 of 295 May 18, 2021 2 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 Background Originally announced on July 27, 2020, federal-provincial Safe Restart grant funding for municipalities to provide support needed in response to COVID-19 has been built upon and additional funding has been announced since. The funding gives municipalities the support and flexibility they need to protect the health and well-being of their communities, while continuing to deliver critical public services. Analysis Upon receipt of its recently announced third phase grant payment, the Town of Aurora will receive a total of $3.6 million in Safe Restart grant funding Currently, the Town of Aurora expects to receive a total of $3.6 million in Safe Restart grant funding through three funding announcements:  Phase I (September 2020) $1,298,500  Phase II (December 2020) $549,000  Phase III (May and November 2021) $1,754,155 Since the beginning of the pandemic, the town has continued to track all its COVID-19 driven spending and revenue losses. In addition, staff has maintained a clear record of the COVID-19 pressures to which it has applied its Safe Restart grant funding so that it is able to meet all provincial reporting requirements. The town has allocated a portion of its Safe Restart funding in 2020 in support of facility safety improvements such as plexiglass barriers, personal protection equipment and materials. Aurora’s planned use of its remaining grant funds in 2021 and 2022 will continue to focus on safety, community engagement and support for the downtown core recovery As part of the 2021 to 22 Operating Budget process, a portion of the town’s available grant funds were allocated to cover forecasted recreation revenue losses and increased operating costs. In addition, a contingency for lost lease revenue from the town rental properties. Since this time, frontline staff have worked closely with Finance to develop a comprehensive plan for the use of its remaining Safe Restart funding focusing on the following areas:  Electronic document management for recreation is the transition from a historically paper-based document system for recreation summer camps to an Page 227 of 295 May 18, 2021 3 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 online program that manages various health forms, waivers and COVID screening as well as the electronic devices that frontline recreation staff will need to access the required information. This system will improve efficiencies for weekly camp check-in and enhance customer experience by simplifying and reducing the amount of paper-based documentation required.  Livestreaming/virtual programming opportunities includes the development of recording studios to provide virtual programming for fitness and preschool/children groups as well as the livestreaming of events that have historically been in-person only such as the Concerts in the Park and the Community Recognition Awards.  Keeping our seniors engaged is the continuation of virtual programming (Seniors Centre Without Walls) and the activity kit home delivery program (Seniors Centre in a Bag) that had previously been funded by external grants, however the grant funding has ended.  Improving our parks and trails includes funding required to recognize the increased usage of outdoor facilities including trails and parks requires an increase investment in picnic tables, benches and garbage receptacles (see Attachment #1 for additional information).  Supporting the downtown core recovery supports the businesses in the downtown by providing safety equipment and measures for the implementation of sidewalk patios and the utilization of a vacant lot to provide additional seating and socialization areas during the summer months.  External customer experience improvements includes the addition of temporary staff to help manage the increased call volume through Access Aurora, By-law Services and Finance as well as the creation of outdoor signage for facilities and the implementation of a microphone/speaker system through the protective glass to allow for easier communication with all customers at Town Hall. Currently, there is a portable face to face system that only works for assisted device users, such as hearing aides, called UbiDuo – however this system will not work through the glass barriers that has been installed at Access Aurora. A new system would be installed directly through the glass at all Customer Service stations at Town Hall and would be available for all customers to use.  Facility and protective equipment improvements supports increased safety measures for not only frontline staff, but also to protect all staff within our facilities and the public that attends town events. This includes the purchase of disinfectant foggers and supplies for our facilities and recreation programs to ensure the proper sanitation of spaces and equipment as well as the replacement of manual controls throughout our facilities with hands-free devices (see Attachment #2 for more information). This also includes the rental of a Page 228 of 295 May 18, 2021 4 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 temporary washroom trailer to reduce the number of summer staff needing to enter the facilities.  Community engagement opportunities includes additional special events, such as drive-in movies, additional Concerts in the Park and a virtual bike event as well as the subsidization of several popular recreation programs, including Summer Camp in a Bag and Camp in the Park, to make the programs available at a lower cost to the community. Other projects include a community mosaic, similar to the Canada 150 mosaic now located in the Aurora Family Leisure Complex, the implementation of the ‘Zero to Hero’ lifeguard program that condenses the pathway to allow lifeguard certification and the outdoor ice rinks. Community engagement opportunities will only proceed if they are compliant with the provincial order and other guidelines in effect at that time. Capital project approvals are sought from Council to proceed with some of the priorities In order to complete some of the items included in the categories above, Council approval is proposed to increase the capital budget authority of an existing project and approve the creation of another.  Picnic Tables, Benches and Garbage Receptacles (#73292) requests additional funding of $25,000 to ensure that our parks and trails are properly outfitted with the amenities required to offer a safe park experience to our residents. The provision of additional rest locations that have been properly spaced to ensure social distancing can be observed, the number of benches and picnic tables needs to be increased in our parks and on our trails.  COVID-19 Related Facility Improvements (#72469) is proposed for Council approval to be created with a capital budget authority of $72,550. The funding will be used to replace existing manual controls (automatic door paddles, kitchen faucets and Town Hall washroom fixtures) with hands-frees devices. The transition to touch free controls has been implemented in the town’s newer facilities and public facing locations (JOC and Armoury) however, the retrofit of existing devices has not been made a priority until now. Staff have earmarked a portion of the Safe Restart grant funding to cover operating pressures forecasted for 2022 In addition to the above noted comprehensive plan, staff have recognized that there could be lingering financial impacts from COVID-19 in 2022 and have set aside a total of $0.9 million of the available grant funding to address potential operating pressures arising from the pandemic in the 2022 operating budget. Page 229 of 295 May 18, 2021 5 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 After setting aside funding for 2022 potential operating pressures, the remaining available funds from this grant that have not yet been earmarked total $1.0 million. Staff are taking a cautious approach to ensure the funds are there should they be required in the future. Staff are currently exploring options for 2022 capital items that will be brought forward as part of the budget in the fall. Advisory Committee Review Not applicable. Legal Considerations Staff continue to ensure that all requirements from the provincial government are met regarding this funding, including the tracking of all expenditures that are covered by this program. Town staff have signed and returned the required letters of acceptance for this funding in accordance with their delegated authority. Staff continue to monitor provincial orders and other guidelines to ensure that the Town is compliant and that all departments understand the restrictions in effect at that time. Financial Implications The first two phases of the Safe Restart funding were received by the town in 2020, with the third phase to be received during 2021. This funding is intended to help Aurora mitigate any cost pressures or lost revenue arising because of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, 2021 or 2022. The town did not draw on any of the grant funds to cover 2020 operational losses as losses were offset through savings in other areas. For 2021 and 2022, it is expected that the town may need $0.7 million and $0.9 million, respectively in grant funding to offset COVID-19 driven operating pressures. Table 1 presents a complete summary of the proposed 2021-22 plan for Aurora’s use of the Safe Restart grant funding. Table 1 Planned use of Safe Restart Grant Funding Page 230 of 295 May 18, 2021 6 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 Category Cost ($) 2021 Budgeted COVID-19 funding draw 668,300 2022 Forecasted COVID-19 funding draw 900,000 2021-22 lease revenue loss 410,000 Electronic document management for recreation 11,000 Livestreaming/virtual programing opportunities 24,500 Keeping our seniors engaged 28,900 Improving our parks and trails (new proposed capital project) 25,000 Supporting the Downtown Core recovery 43,500 External customer experience improvements 132,000 Facility and protective equipment upgrades (operating request) 92,804 Facility and protective equipment upgrades (new proposed capital project) 72,500 Community engagement opportunities 171,737 Total 2,580,241 Two capital projects are proposed as part of Table 1 above. This report seeks capital budget authority of $25,000 for picnic tables/benches/garbage receptacles and $72,500 for COVID-19 related facility improvements. Additional information in support these requests have been provided through detailed capital budget pages as attachments to this report. As noted, these incremental costs are to be fully funded through the Town’s Safe Restart grant funding. At this time, the remaining unallocated funding from this grant totals $1.0 million for which staff are carefully considering future commitments to ensure that the funds are there if needed. Communications Considerations The Town of Aurora will use ‘inform’ as the level of engagement for this project. This information will be included in the regularly published Council Highlights. Page 231 of 295 May 18, 2021 7 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 Link to Strategic Plan Management of grant funds for specific purposes contributes to achieving the Strategic Plan guiding Principle of “Leadership in Corporate Management” and improves transparency and accountability to the community. Alternative(s) to the Recommendation 1. Approve some of the requests to utilize the Safe Restart grant funding for the requested capital projects. 2. Do not approve the request to utilize the Safe Restart grant funding for the requested capital projects. Conclusions The Town of Aurora has been approved to receive Safe Restart grant funding, which staff have developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate potential operating pressures, provide support to our downtown core and ensure that residents are provided as many engagement opportunities as allowed under the provincial orders. Staff continue to closely monitor the financial impact of the pandemic on the Town and will report to Council as part of the next scheduled in-year forecast. Attachments Attachment # 1 – Picnic Tables, Benches and Garbage Receptacles (#73292) Attachment # 2 – COVID-19 Related Facility Improvements (#72469) Previous Reports FIN20-023 – Safe Restart Funding, September 8, 2020 Pre-submission Review Agenda Management Team review on April 29, 2021 Page 232 of 295 May 18, 2021 8 of 8 Report No. FIN21-021 Approvals Approved by Rachel Wainwright-van Kessel, CPA, CMA, Director, Finance - Treasurer Approved by Doug Nadorozny, Chief Administrative Officer Page 233 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 73292 Picnic Tables/Benches/Garbage Receptacles Operational Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 Provide a brief overview of the project and include the key goals, objectives and performance measures. To purchase additional picnic tables, garbage receptacles and park benches to service parks and open spaces in response to the current increased demand due to COVID-19 safety measures. Provide the reasons the project should be approved and what will be the impact of the project to service levels. Multiple trails and parks will require benches for seating/relaxation, garbage receptacles for refuse and picnic tables for enjoyment. All three of these amenities are integral to providing park users with a positive experience in the park. With increased demand and use of trails, the request for more frequent rest spots along the paths has increased. Picnic tables are always in high demand in our parks, especially where playgrounds, sports fields and splash pads are located. Due to COVID-19 and the loss of amenities, there has been a significant increase of traffic within our parks and on our trails. To help facilitate a safe park experience and ensure that social distancing is observed, it is necessary to provide additional seating opportunities for users, in addition to garbage receptacles for the disposal of waste. Since the start of COVID-19, there has been a significant increase in requests for memorial benches, more than 20 such requests have been received since March 2020, compared to 6 such requests being received prior to COVID-19. Explain the benefits of the project which could include Citizen/Client, compliance, financial, internal, learning & growth or utility benefits. Garbage receptacles provide a place for users to safely dispose of refuse, helping keep the park clean and tidy for all to enjoy. Benches provide rest stations for residents and additionally help support our memorial bench program which provides some small portion of revenues to the parks but is a program which is well supported by the public. Financial Information Budget 10-Year Plan Previously Approved Budget Capital Budget Authority Budget Change Actuals to Dec 31/2019 2020 Forecast 2021 2022 2023-2030 Expenditures Estimated Expenditures EQUIPMENT - OTHER 30,000 18,19855,000 25,00025,000 11,802 30,000 18,19855,000 25,00025,000 11,802 30,000 18,19855,000 25,00025,000Expenditures Total 11,802 Funding Special Purpose Reserve Funds TAX RATE STABILIZATION 25,000 CIL PARKLAND CONTRIBUTION 3,000 (3,000)3,000 3,000 25,000(3,000)3,000 Other Funding Sources GROWTH & NEW RES CONT'N 27,000 18,198 (27,000)27,000 27,000 18,198(27,000)27,000 30,000 18,198 25,000(30,000)Funding Total 30,000 Attachment 1 Page 234 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 73292 Picnic Tables/Benches/Garbage Receptacles Operational Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 Please provide an explanation of what the outcomes would be if the project was not approved. Increased of garbage within parks and inability to provide sufficient seating spread out to ensure that social distancing is observed for the increased demand. Page 235 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 73292 Picnic Tables/Benches/Garbage Receptacles Operational Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 Gallery C:\Users\Jim Tree\Desktop\typical park bench.jpg Page 236 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 73292 Picnic Tables/Benches/Garbage Receptacles Operational Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 Gallery C:\Users\Jim Tree\Desktop\typical picnic table.jpg Page 237 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 73292 Picnic Tables/Benches/Garbage Receptacles Operational Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 Gallery C:\Users\Jim Tree\Desktop\typical trash receptacle.jpg Page 238 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 72469 COVID-19 Related Facility Improvements Community Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 TARGET START DATE AND END DATE: Use format Q4 2017 - Q1 2018 Q2 2021 - Q4 2021 Provide a brief overview of the project and include the key goals, objectives and performance measures. Existing engineering controls within vestibules, washrooms and HVAC systems have been built into the design of each of our facilities, however they are a combination of manual and hands-free options that do not take current infection control practices into account. In response to COVID-19, the Town would like to replace a number of existing manual controls with hands-free devices to prevent the spread of infectious deseases. Provide the reasons the project should be approved and what will be the impact of the project to service levels. The replacement of manual controls (door operator paddles, staff kitchen faucets and Town Hall washroom fixtures) within our facilities with hands-free options will ensure that when the Town is able to reopen to the public we have provided the safest environment possible for not only the public but our staff. Staff are recommending the replacement of 58 door paddles throughout all Town facilities from 'touch' paddles to 'wave operated' controls to reduce contact with public surfaces. The door operators are still in good condition, do not require replacement and are not included in the scope of this project. (estimated cost $21,750) The replacement of all faucets (18) within existing staff kitchens at Town Hall, JOC, SARC and ACC from current manual controls to touch-free models is included in the scope of this project. (estimated cost $19,800) The current facility renewal plan for Town Hall includes the renovation of all washrooms, however the current plans does not include hands-free fixtures and controls. Staff recommend upgrading the planned renovation of the washrooms to include hands-free devices. (estimated cost $31,000) Financial Information Budget 10-Year Plan Previously Approved Budget Capital Budget Authority Budget Change Actuals to Dec 31/2019 2020 Forecast 2021 2022 2023-2030 Expenditures Estimated Expenditures EQUIPMENT - OTHER 72,550 72,55072,550 72,550 72,55072,550 72,550 72,55072,550Expenditures Total Funding Special Purpose Reserve Funds TAX RATE STABILIZATION 72,550 72,550 72,550Funding Total Attachment 2 Page 239 of 295 Town of Aurora Capital Projects Project Department Version Year 72469 COVID-19 Related Facility Improvements Community Services Final Budget-Spread 2021 Explain the benefits of the project which could include Citizen/Client, compliance, financial, internal, learning & growth or utility benefits. The replacement of existing manual controls within our facility with hands-free options allows for improved infection control practices within our facilities for the protection of staff and patrons. Please provide an explanation of what the outcomes would be if the project was not approved. Higher possibility of spread of infection via higher touch points throughout Town facilities. Page 240 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora General Committee Report No. PDS21 -0 56 Subject: Application for Site Plan Approval 1623 Wellington Street Developments Limited (Dilwari) Part of Lot 20, Con. 3 Whitchurch, designated as Part 5 on Plan 65R- 39324 (formerly 1623 Wellington Street East) File Number: SP-2021-03 Related File Number: C-2021-01, SP-2021-04 Prepared by: Anna Henriques, Manager, Development Planning Department: Planning and Development Services Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That Report No. PDS21-056 be received; and, 2. That Site Plan Application File SP-2021-03 to permit the development of a Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment be approved, in principle, subject to the following conditions: i. That all outstanding comments and requirements from Town and external agencies be addressed to the satisfaction of the Director of Planning and Development Services, prior to execution of a Site Plan agreement; and, ii. That the Owners enter into a Site Plan Agreement with the Town to address requirements of the Town and external agencies, including but not limited to, the provision for payment by the Owner of all applicable fees, securities, and any other financial obligations. Executive Summary This report seeks Council’s approval, in principle, of a Site Plan Application to develop the subject property with a two-storey Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment. Page 241 of 295 May 18, 2021 2 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056  The proposed Site Plan conforms with Provincial, Regional and Municipal Policies and Plans;  The proposed Site Plan complies with the Town’s Comprehensive Zoning By-law;  Planning Staff are satisfied with the Site and Building Design; and,  Town staff and external agencies have no objection to approval, in principle, of the application, subject to conditions. Background Application History On November 24, 2020, Council approved Official Plan Amendment (OPA-2020-02) and Zoning By-law Amendment (ZBA-2020-02) applications for the subject property and adjacent Business Park. The effect of these amendments was to permit additional uses (Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment and Commercial Self-Storage Facility) and to implement site-specific zoning provisions to facilitate the development of an integrated campus-like setting that includes motor vehicle sales, commercial self storage, office, retail and other employment uses. In February 2021, the Town’s Committee of Adjustment granted provisional consent to sever a portion of the lands at 1623 Wellington Street East to create a new lot, accessed via a private driveway/road off the future extension of Goulding Avenue (under construction), to accommodate the proposed Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment. In addition, the Committee of Adjustment approved servicing and access easements to facilitate development on the subject property and abutting lands. The Site Plan Application was submitted to the Town on February 18, 2021 and was circulated for review and comment. The application was presented to the Town of Aurora Design Review Panel on April 12, 2021. A resubmission was made to address first submission comments issued by the Town, external agencies and the Design Review Panel. Location / Land Use The subject property is located on the south side of Wellington Street East, and west of Highway 404, and immediately east of the future extension of Goulding Avenue (see Figure 1). The subject property has an area of 1.13 hectares (2.8 acres), and an approximate lot frontage of 106 metres (347 feet) onto Wellington Street East. Vehicular access to the subject property is via a private driveway/road, to be constructed, off of the future extension of Goulding Avenue which is currently under Page 242 of 295 May 18, 2021 3 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 construction and expected to be complete by the end of 2021. Construction of the private driveway/road is proposed under Site Plan Application 2021-04 (Aurora Self Storage). A portion of the subject property (north yard) is located within the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) setback area. The subject property is relatively flat, contains no significant vegetation and is currently vacant. Surrounding Land Uses The surrounding land uses are as follows: North: Wellington Street East, and Regional Commercial uses; South: Vacant land, and Employment uses; East: Vacant land, Highway 404, and the Aurora Carpool Lot; and, West: Vacant land, extension of Goulding Avenue, proposed Commercial Self Storage Facility (under SP-2021-04), and a gas bar/convenience store. Policy Context Provincial Policies All development applications shall have regard for the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), which provides policy direction on matters of Provincial interest. These policies support the development of strong communities through the promotion of efficient land use and development patterns. The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (The Growth Plan) is a guiding document for growth management within the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area. The Growth Plan provides a framework which guides land use planning. The Lake Simcoe Protection Plan (LSPP) provides policies which address aquatic life, water quality and quantity, shorelines and natural heritage, other threats and activities (invasive species, climate change and recreational activities). York Region Official Plan (YROP) The YROP designates the subject property as “Urban Area”. The planning vision for the Urban Area is to strategically focus growth while conserving resources; and to create sustainable, lively communities. A primary goal of the YROP is to enhance the Region’s Page 243 of 295 May 18, 2021 4 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 urban structure through city building, intensification and compact, complete vibrant communities. The subject property is not located within a Wellhead Protection Area. Town of Aurora Official Plan Schedule ‘A’ – Structure Plan of the Town’s Official Plan identifies that the subject property is within the Bayview Northeast Area 2B Secondary Plan (OPA 30) area. Schedule ‘K’ – Trail Network Concept identifies a “Future Trail Route” along the northeast portion of the subject property. The trail is accommodated within the right-of- way for the Goulding Avenue extension which is under construction. Bayview Northeast Area 2B Secondary Plan (OPA 30) The subject property is designated “Business Park – Special Policy Area 1” by Official Plan Amendment No. 22 (see Figure 2). The intent of this designation is to provide opportunities for a mix of prestige employment uses and a variety of supporting commercial and community facilities generally geared to satisfying the needs of residents, businesses and employees in the Town of Aurora and the Region. Business Park lands shall be planned, designed and built in an integrated campus-like setting to create a superior built form along Highway 404 and Wellington Street East. The Wellington Street East Corridor (Area 2B) Urban Design Guidelines apply to the subject lands which generally encourage a striking built presence fronting Wellington Street East, high-quality landscaping and design, and active transportation on site and throughout the surrounding area. Zoning By-law 6000-17, as amended The subject property is zoned “Business Park Exception Zone (E-BP(531)(533))” , by the Town of Aurora Zoning By-law 6000-17, as amended (See Figure 3). A range of employment uses are permitted including a Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment. Reports and Studies The Owner submitted the following documents with the Site Plan application: Report Consultant Survey Holding Jones Vanderveen Inc. Architectural Drawings  Site Plan, Floor Plans, Building Elevations, and Building Sections BDP Quadrangle Civil Drawings Pearson Engineering Page 244 of 295 May 18, 2021 5 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 Report Consultant  Notes and Details, Grading Plan, Servicing Plan, Pre and Post Development Storm Catchment Plans, and Environmental Protection Plan Landscape Plans Brodie & Associates Landscape Architects Inc. Landscape Cost Estimate Brodie & Associates Landscape Architects Inc. Green Development Report BDP Quadrangle Arborist Report Brodie & Associates Landscape Architects Inc. Geotechnical Report EXP Services Inc. Hydrogeological and Water Balance Report EXP Services Inc. Stormwater Management Report Pearson Engineering Functional Servicing Plan Husson Proposed Application The applicant is proposing to develop the subject property with a two-storey Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment with areas dedicated to sales and servicing of vehicles (see Figure 4). The proposed building has an approximate gross floor area of approximately 5,513.14 square metres (59,343 square feet), a height of 11.3 metres (37 feet), and lot coverage of 31.8%. Two driveway access points are proposed at the southwest and southeast limits of the property which connect to a private driveway/road (Road A) that has direct access to the future extension of Goulding Avenue (under construction and anticipated to be complete by the end of 2021). A sidewalk is proposed on the south side of the private driveway/road (Road A). Construction of the private driveway/road (Road A), including required private services to service future development of adjacent Business Park, is proposed under Site Plan Application 2021-04. The development is serviced by 166 parking spaces, plus 7 barrier free spaces and 8 bicycle parking spaces. Landscaping is provided along the south and east property lines, and landscaped islands are provided within the parking area. A six (6) metre landscape strip is provided along the Wellington Street frontage however it does not currently include plantings as it is within the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) setback area. Plantings will be provided once staff receive confirmation from MTO as to what plantings, if any, are permissible. Staff note that no portion of the proposed building or required parking spaces are location within the MTO setback area. Page 245 of 295 May 18, 2021 6 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 Elevations and renderings for the proposed development are attached as Figures 5 and 6, respectively. Proposed building materials include: aluminum composite paneling, glazing, spandrel glass, precast, and metal flashings. Analysis Planning Considerations The proposed Site Plan conforms with Provincial, Regional and Municipal Policies and Plans It is the opinion of Planning Staff that the proposed Site Plan application is consistent with the PPS and conforms with the Places to Grow Plan as it provides employment opportunities, promotes economic development in one of the Town’s planned employment areas and utilizes vacant employment lands in the Town to achieve forecasted job and density targets. The proposed application conforms with the York Region Official Plan as it supports the achievement of complete communities by providing a variety of local employment opportunities and provides servicing to facilitate future development of employment lands. The LSRCA is satisfied that the application conforms to the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan. Planning Staff are of the opinion that the proposed application conforms to the land use and development policies of the Official Plan by accommodating employment opportunities to meet the long-term needs of the Town and by facilitating the development of a new Business Park that will serve as a major gateway into Aurora from the east. Further, the proposed Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment is permitted as per OPA 30 and the site and building design meets the general objectives of the Wellington Street East Urban Design Guidelines. The proposed Site Plan complies with the Town’s Comprehensive Zoning By-law The proposed development complies with the Town’s Comprehensive Zoning By-law 6000-17, as amended. The proposed Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment is a permitted use on the subject lands and complies with all development standards including but not limited to parking and landscaping requirements. Page 246 of 295 May 18, 2021 7 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 Planning Staff are satisfied with the Site and Building Design Planning staff have reviewed the subject application and are satisfied with the site design of the Motor Vehicle Sale Establishment as it relates to its relationship with the streetscape, landscaping and site circulation. The siting of the building addresses the Wellington Street East frontage as well as the Highway 404 corridor. Landscaping is provided to enhance the site along the south property line, next to the private driveway/road (Road A) and along the east property line. A six (6) metre landscape buffer is provided along the Wellington Street frontage which is mostly within the MTO setback area. Staff will continue to work with the applicant and MTO to determine what landscaping, if any, is permitted within the setback area. The landscaping design will be updated, to the satisfaction of Staff, once confirmation from MTO is received. The design of the parking area includes appropriate parking and loading areas as well as pedestrian connections which provides for adequate on-site circulation for both vehicles and pedestrians. A drive aisle is located within the MTO setback area, however staff are satisfied that adequate on-site circulation can be provided in the event that MTO does not permit the drive aisle (comments have yet to be provided). A proposed private driveway/road (Road A) (under Site Plan Application SP 2021-04) will connect the subject property to the future extension of Goulding Avenue. The site plan agreement will include appropriate clauses to ensure the proposed building is not occupied until adequate access to the site is available. Planning staff are also satisfied with the proposed building design. The proposed building massing is appropriate for a gateway location and the building design includes high quality materials, glazing, projections and recessions which articulate the main building façades (north and east), and improve the architectural appeal at a prime gateway into Aurora. The proposal was presented to the Town’s Design Review Panel on April 12, 2021 and the proposed design was generally supported by the Panel. Recommendations to improve the site and building design were provided, including but not limited to, providing more landscaping, providing more pedestrian connections and enhancing the building design with a focal feature at the corner of building facing Wellington Street East and Highway 404 (north and east facades). The applicant has submitted revised plans to address the comments of the DRP, to the satisfaction of Planning staff. Additional landscaping has been provided along the north boundary line, and larger landscaped areas have been provided along the west and east Page 247 of 295 May 18, 2021 8 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 lot lines. Pavement markings have been added to the proposed plans to encourage safer pedestrian movement throughout the proposed development. Town staff and external agencies have no objection to approval, in principle, of the application, subject to conditions Town staff and external agencies have reviewed the subject application and have no major concerns. Outstanding technical comments are minor in nature and will be addressed prior to execution of the Site Plan Agreement. Further details on comments provided are outlined below. Department/Agency Comments Development Engineering Town staff have reviewed the engineering plans and reports submitted in support of the proposed application and have no objection to approval of the application. Staff support the proposed plan for servicing the Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment with connections under the proposed private driveway/road (Road A). In addition, staff are satisfied with the proposed storm water management system, which is designed to drain to the existing stormwater management pond within the Hallgrove Business Park, located southwest of the subject property. Quality and quantity control can be achieved, and subject to compensation, the stormwater management requirements per the Town and LSRCA will be met. Outstanding comments will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Transportation Town staff reviewed the subject application and are satisfied with the proposed on-site circulation. Staff have no objection to approval of the proposed application. Parks Town staff have reviewed the subject application and are satisfied with the proposal. The applicant has provided additional landscaping to address staff comments. Outstanding minor comments will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Page 248 of 295 May 18, 2021 9 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 Accessibility Staff have reviewed the proposed application and have provided comments which have been addressed in the latest submission. Outstanding comments will be addressed at the building permit stage. Central York Fire Services (CYFS) CYFS reviewed the proposed application and are satisfied with the proposed fire route location and design. CYFS has no objection to approval of the subject application. Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority The proposed development is considered ‘major development’ as per the LSPP since it includes the construction of an imperious area and building greater than 500m2. The LSRCA has reviewed the subject application and provided technical comments on engineering and hydrology. The LSRCA has no objection to the approval of the application subject to conditions. Conditions of approval include finalization of outstanding technical comments and requirements including the submission of a phosphorus budget in accordance with the Lake Simcoe Phosphorus Offsetting Policy (LSPOP) and a pre and post development water balance assessment in accordance with the South Georgian Bay Lake Simcoe Source Protection Plan undertaken to the satisfaction of the LSRCA, including compensatory measures. York Region York Region reviewed the subject application and have no objections to approval of the application. The only outstanding comments relate to the Hydrogeological Study and demonstrating that the existing water balance can be maintained. In addition, the Region has advised that approval is contingent on the Owner(s) completing the required road improvements for 1623 Wellington Street, which generally includes road widening, a daylighting triangle, shoulder improvement, a new sideroad, traffic signal installation, water and storm servicing, minor landscaping, and asphalt resurfacing. Ministry of Transportation (MTO) MTO was circulated the proposed application for review and comment in early 2021. Comments have yet to be provided, however staff note that no portion of the proposed building or required parking is located within the MTO setback area. A drive aisle (northern portion of site) is located within the MTO setback area, however, Transportation staff are satisfied that the drive aisle is not required to provide adequate on-site circulation should the MTO mandate its removal. Further, The Town is waiting Page 249 of 295 May 18, 2021 10 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 for MTO to issue comments as to what type of plantings are permitted within the six (6) metre landscape strip shown on the proposed site plan. Overall, staff are satisfied that MTO comments, once issued, will not impact the physical design of the proposed site plan. Public Comments Planning Staff have received no comments from the public on the subject site plan application. Advisory Committee Review No Communication Required. Legal Considerations In accordance with Section 41 of the Planning Act, the owner may appeal a site plan application if Council fails to approve the application within thirty (30) days of the application being submitted. The owner may also appeal any of the Town’s conditions, including the terms of a site plan agreement. There is no right of appeal for any other person. Financial Implications All applicable development fees and charges in this regard have been and will continue to be collected by the Town as required. Communications Considerations Site plan applications submitted under Section 41 of the Planning Act do not require public notification. However, a Notice of Site Plan application sign was posted on the subject property earlier this year by the applicant. The Planning Application Status is available on the Town’s website and is reported to Council and updated quarterly. Link to Strategic Plan The proposed application supports the strategic goal of promoting economic opportunities that facilitate the growth of Aurora as a desirable place to do business by providing employment opportunities within the Town and encouraging future investment of employment lands. Page 250 of 295 May 18, 2021 11 of 11 Report No. PDS21-056 Alternative(s) to the Recommendation 1. That Council provide direction. Conclusions The proposed application will provide employment opportunities within the Town, add non residential assessment and encourage future investment within the Business Park which is located at a prime gateway into Aurora. Planning Staff have reviewed the proposed Site Plan application and recommend approval in principle, subject to conditions. Outstanding technical comments are minor in nature and will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Attachments Figure 1 – Location Map Figure 2 – Existing Official Plan Designation Figure 3 – Existing Zoning By-Law Designation Figure 4 – Proposed Site Plan Figure 5 – Proposed Elevations Figure 6 – Conceptual Renderings Previous Reports General Committee Report No. PDS20-067, dated November 3, 2020. Pre-submission Review Agenda Management Team review on April 29, 2021 Approvals Approved by David Waters, MCIP. RPP. PLE, Director, Planning and Development Services Approved by Doug Nadorozny, Chief Administrative Officer Page 251 of 295 Exit45First Commerce DriveWellin gto n S treet East Leslie StreetExit 45WellingtonStreetEast Do n Hi l l o ck Dri ve Don Hillock Drive LOCATION MAP Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Building Services Department, April 20, 2021. Base data provided by York Region & the Town of Aurora. Air Photos taken Spring 2020, © First Base Solutions Inc., 2020 Orthophotography. ¯ FIGURE 1 St John's Sdrd Wellington St E Vandorf SdrdHenderson Drive ^Wellington St W UV404 UV404Leslie StYonge StBathurst StBayview AveBloomington Rd 0 25 50 75 100 MetresAPPLICANT: 2772200 Ontario LimitedFILES: SP-2021-03 SUBJECT LANDSGoulding AvenuePage 252 of 295 Highway 404Goulding AvenueFirst Commerce DriveDon Hillock Drive Exit 45WELLINGTON STREET EASTLESLIE STREETLESLIE STREETEXISTING OFFICIAL PLAN DESIGNATION Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Building Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by York Region & the Town of Aurora. ¯0 25 50 75 100 Metres APPLICANT: 2772200 Ontario LimitedFILES: SP-2021-03FIGURE 2 St John's Sdrd Wellington St E Vandorf SdrdHenderson Drive ^Wellington St W UV404 UV404Leslie StYonge StBathurst StBayview AveBloomington Rd SUBJECT LANDS Schedule B1 Secondary Plan Area Schedule A OPA Business Park - Regional Commercial Centre Business Park Community Commercial Page 253 of 295 First Commerce DriveDon Hillock Drive Exit45 RU-ORMC3(426) E-BP(531)(532) E-BP(531) E-BP(338) RU E-BP RU E-BP E-BP(531)(532) EP E-BP I E-BP(531)(533)EP C3(328) E-BP(531)(534) E-BP RU C3(11)E-BP(357) WELLINGTO N STREET EAST LESLIE STREETLESLIE STREETEXISTING ZONING BY-LAW DESIGNATION Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Building Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by York Region & the Town of Aurora. ¯0 25 50 75 100 Metres APPLICANT: 2772200 Ontario LimitedFILES: SP-2021-03FIGURE 3 SUBJECT LANDS INSTITUTIONAL ZONES InstitutionalI Zoning Legend EMPLOYMENT ZONES OPEN SPACES ZONES Environmental ProtectionEP RURAL ZONES RuralRU Oak Ridges MoraineRuralRU-ORM Business ParkE-BP COMMERCIAL ZONES Service CommercialC3 Page 254 of 295 Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Development Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by Sweeny & Co Architects PROPOSED SITE PLANAPPLICANT: 2772200 Ontario LimitedFILES: SP-2021-03FIGURE 4 Page 255 of 295 Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Development Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by Sweeny & Co Architects PROPOSED ELEVATIONSAPPLICANT: 2772200 Ontario LimitedFILES: SP-2021-03FIGURE 5 Page 256 of 295 Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Development Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by Sweeny & Co Architects CONCEPTUAL RENDERINGSAPPLICANT: 2772200 Ontario LimitedFILES: SP-2021-03FIGURE 6 Page 257 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora General Committee Report No. PDS21 -052 Subject: Application for Site Plan Approval Aurora Self Storage Inc. (and 1623 Wellington Street Developments Limited) Part of Lot 20, Con. 3 Whitchurch, designated as Parts 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 on Plan 65R-39324 (formerly 1623 Wellington Street East) File Number: SP-2021-04 Related File Number: C-2021-02, SP-2021-03 Prepared by: Anna Henriques, Manager, Development Planning Department: Planning and Development Services Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That Report No. PDS21-052 be received; and, 2. That Site Plan Application File SP-2021-04 to permit the development of a Commercial Self Storage facility be approved, in principle, subject to the following conditions: i. That all outstanding comments and requirements from Town and external agencies be addressed to the satisfaction of the Director of Planning and Development Services, prior to execution of a Site Plan agreement; and, ii. That the Owners enter into a Site Plan Agreement with the Town to address requirements of the Town and external agencies, including but not limited to, the provision for payment by the Owner of all applicable fees, securities, and any other financial obligations. Executive Summary This report seeks Council’s approval, in principle, of a Site Plan Application to develop the subject lands with a four-storey Commercial Self-Storage Facility and associated private driveways/roads with below ground municipal servicing. Page 258 of 295 May 18, 2021 2 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052  The proposed Site Plan conforms with Provincial, Regional and Municipal Policies and Plans;  The proposed Site Plan complies with the Town’s Comprehensive Zoning By-law;  Planning Staff are satisfied with the Site and Building Design;  Town staff and external agencies have no objection to approval, in principle, of the application, subject to conditions. Background Application History On November 24, 2020, Council approved Official Plan Amendment (OPA-2020-02) and Zoning By-law Amendment (ZBA-2020-02) applications for the subject lands and the balance of the Business Park. The effect of these amendments permits additional uses (Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment and Commercial Self-Storage Facility) and provide for site-specific zoning provisions to facilitate the development of an integrated campus-like setting that includes motor vehicle sales, commercial self storage, office, retail and other employment uses. In February 2021, the Town’s Committee of Adjustment granted provisional consent to sever a portion of the lands at 1623 Wellington Street East to create a new lot, fronting the future extension of Goulding Avenue (under construction), to accommodate the proposed Commercial Self Storage Facility. In addition, the Committee approved servicing and access easements to facilitate development on the subject lands and balance of the abutting lands. The Site Plan Application was submitted on February 26, 2021 and was circulated for review and comment. The application was presented to the Town of Aurora Design Review Panel on April 12, 2021. A resubmission was made in April to address first submission comments issued by the Town, external agencies and the Design Review Panel. Location / Land Use The subject lands are located on the south side of Wellington Street East, west of Highway 404, and immediately east of the future extension of Goulding Avenue (see Figure 1). The subject lands include a new lot created for the proposed Self Storage Facility as well as abutting lands to the north, south and east which provide access and servicing for the Commercial Self Storage Facility and will facilitate the future development of the adjacent Business Park. The subject lands have a lot area of Page 259 of 295 May 18, 2021 3 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 approximately 1.3 hectares (3.21 acres), and a frontage of 82.3 m (270 ft) onto the future extension of Goulding Avenue. The subject lands are relatively flat, contain no significant vegetation and are currently vacant. Surrounding Land Uses The surrounding land uses are as follows: North: Vacant land, Wellington Street East, and Regional Commercial uses; South: Employment uses; East: Vacant land, proposed Motor Vehicle Sales Establishment (under SP-2021-03), Highway 404, and the Aurora Carpool lot; and, West: Extension of Goulding Avenue, vacant land, and a gas bar/convenience store. Policy Context Provincial Policies All development applications shall have regard for the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), which provides policy direction on matters of Provincial interest. These policies support the development of strong communities through the promotion of efficient land use and development patterns. The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (The Growth Plan) is a guiding document for growth management within the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area. The Growth Plan provides a framework which guides land use planning. The Lake Simcoe Protection Plan (LSPP) provides policies which address aquatic life, water quality and quantity, shorelines and natural heritage, other threats and activities (invasive species, climate change and recreational activities). York Region Official Plan (YROP) The YROP designates the subject property as “Urban Area”. The planning vision for the Urban Area is to strategically focus growth while conserving resources; and to create sustainable, lively communities. A primary goal of the YROP is to enhance the Region’s urban structure through city building, intensification and compact, complete vibrant communities. The subject lands are located within the Recharge Management Area (WHPA Q2) and are not located within the Oak Ridges Moraine Plan Area. Page 260 of 295 May 18, 2021 4 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 Town of Aurora Official Plan Schedule ‘A’ – Structure Plan of the Town’s Official Plan identifies that the subject property is within the Bayview Northeast Area 2B Secondary Plan (OPA 30) area. Schedule ‘K’ – Trail Network Concept identifies a “Future Trail Route” at the northeast limits of the business park. The trail will be accommodated within the right-of-way of the Goulding Avenue extension which is under construction. Bayview Northeast Area 2B Secondary Plan (OPA 30) The subject property is designated “Business Park – Special Policy Area 1” by Official Plan Amendment No. 22 (see Figure 2). The intent of this designation is to provide opportunities for a mix of prestige employment uses and a variety of supporting commercial and community facilities generally geared to satisfying the needs of residents, businesses and employees in the Town of Aurora and the Region. Business Park lands will be planned, designed and built in an integrated campus-like setting to create a superior built form along Highway 404 and Wellington Street East. The Wellington Street East Corridor (Area 2B) Urban Design Guidelines apply to the subject lands which generally encourage a striking built presence onto Wellington Street East, high-quality landscaping and design, and active transportation on site and throughout the surrounding area. Zoning By-law 6000-17, as amended The subject lands are zoned “Business Park Exception Zone (E-BP(531, 534))” and “Business Park Exception Zone (E-BP(531))”,by the Town of Aurora Zoning By-law 6000- 17, as amended (see Figure 3). A range of employment uses are permitted including a Commercial Self Storage Facility. Reports and Studies The Owner submitted the following documents in support of the Site Plan application: Document Name Consultant Survey Holding Jones Vanderveen Inc. Architectural Drawings  Site Plans, Architectural Elevations, Architectural Perspectives WPT Architects Civil Drawings SCS Consulting Group Page 261 of 295 May 18, 2021 5 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 Document Name Consultant  Details Plan, Servicing Plan, Removals Plan, Grading Plan, Erosion and Sediment Control Plan, Illumination Plans Landscape Drawings  Landscape Details, Streetscape Plans, Landscape Plan MHBC Traffic Drawings  Pavement Marking and Signage Plan, Circulation Plan TMIG Stormwater Management and Servicing Report SCS Consulting Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessment EXP Geotechnical Investigation EXP Hydrogeology and Water Balancing Report EXP Functional Servicing Report Husson Arborist Report and Tree Preservation, Protection and Removal Plans MHBC Urban Design Brief MHBC Traffic Brief Memo TMIG Proposed Application The applicant is proposing to develop the subject lands with a four-storey Commercial Self-Storage Facility with accessory office and boardroom space. The proposed Commercial Self-Storage Facility is 17.5 metres (57.4 feet) in height, and has a Gross Floor Area of approximately 13,031 square metres (140,268 square feet). Eighteen (18) surface parking spaces, including two (2) barrier free spaces, and five (5) bicycle parking spaces are provided to service the facility. Landscape buffers with plantings are provided along the perimeter of the property. Building materials primarily include white metal panelling accented by stone masonry veneer at the building’s base along the north, east and west elevations. The building is further accented by brightly coloured blue, green and grey corrugated and smooth metal panelling which highlight glazed areas, canopy coverings and building signage. (see Figure 4). Additionally, the applicant is proposing to develop the balance of the subject lands with private driveways/roads located north, east and south of the Commercial Self Storage Facility. The private driveways/roads will provide two (2) vehicular access points via ‘Road A’, off the future extension of Goulding Avenue, and via ‘Road C’ which is located east of the proposed building. A sidewalk is proposed along the south side of ‘Road A’. Page 262 of 295 May 18, 2021 6 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 The proposed private driveways/roads are part of a larger private road network east of Goulding Avenue that will be completed over time to serve the future campus-like development of the Business Park. The private driveways/roads will also include storm, sanitary and water services underground to service future development. Staff note that the proposed private driveways/roads and associated below grade municipal services are required to service another Site Plan application currently under review by staff for a Motor Vehicle Dealership (Planning application SP-2021-03). The proposed private driveways/roads contemplated under the subject site plan application are shown on Figure 5. Analysis Planning Considerations The proposed Site Plan conforms with Provincial, Regional and Municipal Policies and Plans It is Planning Staff’s opinion that the proposed Site Plan application is consistent with the PPS and conforms with the Places to Grow Plan as it provides employment opportunities, promotes economic development in one of the Town’s key employment areas and utilizes vacant employment lands in the Town to achieve forecasted employment targets. The proposed application conforms with the YROP as it supports the achievement of complete communities by providing a variety of local employment opportunities and provides servicing to facilitate future development of employment lands. The LSRCA is satisfied that the application conforms to the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan. Planning Staff are of the opinion that the proposed application conforms to the land use and development policies of the Official Plan by accommodating employment opportunities to meet the long-term needs of the Town and by facilitating the development of a new Business Park that will serve as a major gateway into Aurora. Further, the proposed Commercial Self Storage Facility is permitted as per OPA 30 and the site and building design meets the general objectives of the Wellington Street East Urban Design Guidelines. The proposed Site Plan complies with the Town’s Comprehensive Zoning By-law The proposed development complies with the Town’s Comprehensive Zoning By-law 6000-17, as amended. The proposed Commercial Self Storage Facility is a permitted Page 263 of 295 May 18, 2021 7 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 use on the subject lands and complies with all development standards including but not limited to parking and landscape requirements. Planning Staff are satisfied with the Site and Building Design Planning staff have reviewed the subject application and are satisfied with the design of the Self Storage Facility site as it relates to its relationship with the public realm, landscaping and site circulation. The orientation of the proposed building is appropriate and includes a glazed corner focal point that addresses the future extension of Goulding as well as the private driveway/road (Road A). Adequate landscaping is provided to enhance the site at key locations while also mitigating potential heat island effect impacts. The design of the parking area includes appropriate parking and loading areas as well as pedestrian connections which provides for adequate on-site circulation for both vehicles and pedestrians. The proposed private driveways/roads further enhance vehicular and pedestrian connections to serve the proposed Storage Facility and future development on abutting lands. Two (2) of the proposed private driveways/roads (Roads A and C) will connect to the future extension of Goulding Avenue which is currently under construction and expected to be completed by the end of 2021. The site plan agreement will include appropriate clauses to ensure the proposed building is not occupied until adequate access to the site is available. Planning staff are also satisfied with the proposed building design. The building design includes colourful metal panels, glazing, projections and recessions which articulate the building façade (north and west), break up the building’s massing and improve the architectural appeal along the street edge. In addition, the three (3) loading doors on the north façade will be glazed to minimize their appearance. The proposal was presented to the Town’s Design Review Panel on April 12, 2021 and the proposed design was generally supported by the Panel. Recommendations to improve the site and building design were provided, including but not limited to, providing more landscaping, providing more pedestrian connections and increasing the base of masonry along the north and west facades. The applicant has provided revised plans to address the comments provided by the Panel, to the satisfaction of Planning staff. Town staff and external agencies have no objection to approval, in principle, of the application, subject to conditions Page 264 of 295 May 18, 2021 8 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 Town staff and external agencies have reviewed the subject application and have no major concerns. Outstanding technical comments are minor in nature and will be addressed prior to the execution of the Site Plan Agreement. Further details on comments provided are presented below. Department/Agency Comments Development Engineering Town staff have reviewed the engineering plans and reports submitted in support of the proposed application and have no objection to approval of the application. Staff support the proposed plan for servicing the Storage Facility with connections from the future extension of Goulding and servicing for abutting lands under the proposed private driveways/roads. In addition, staff are satisfied with the proposed stormwater management system, which is designed in accordance with Town standards and provides for drainage to the south to the existing stormwater management pond within the Hallgrove Business Park located southwest of the subject lands. Outstanding comments will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Transportation Town staff have reviewed the Traffic Brief submitted with the application and are generally satisfied with the proposal including the functionality and accessibility of the loading spaces. Minor comments remain to be addressed which are not anticipated to impact the overall site design and will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Parks Town staff have reviewed the subject application and are satisfied with the proposal. The applicant has provided additional landscaping to address staff comments. Outstanding minor comments will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Accessibility Staff have reviewed the proposed application and have provided comments which have been addressed with the latest submission. Outstanding comments will be addressed at the building permit stage. Page 265 of 295 May 18, 2021 9 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 Central York Fire Services (CYFS) Staff from CYFS have reviewed the proposed application and are satisfied with the proposed fire route location and design. CYFS has no objection to approval of the subject application. Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority The proposed development is considered ‘major development’ as per the LSPP since it includes the construction of an imperious area and building greater than 500m2. The LSRCA has reviewed the subject application and provided technical comments on engineering and hydrology. The LSRCA has no objection to the approval of the application subject to conditions. Conditions of approval include finalization of outstanding technical comments and requirements including the submission of a phosphorus budget in accordance with the Lake Simcoe Phosphorus Offsetting Policy (LSPOP) and a pre and post development water balance assessment in accordance with the South Georgian Bay Lake Simcoe Source Protection Plan undertaken to the satisfaction of the LSRCA, including compensatory measures. York Region York Region reviewed the subject application and have no objections to approval of the application. The only outstanding comments relate to the Hydrogeological Study and demonstrating that the existing water balance can be maintained. In addition, the Region has advised that approval is contingent on the Owner(s) completing the required road improvements for 1623 Wellington Street, which generally includes road widening, a daylighting triangle, a gravel shoulder, pedestrian facilities and landscaping. Public Comments Planning Staff have received no comments from the public on the subject site plan application. Advisory Committee Review No Communication Required. Legal Considerations In accordance with Section 41 of the Planning Act, the owner may appeal a site plan application if Council fails to approve the application within thirty (30) days of the Page 266 of 295 May 18, 2021 10 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 application being submitted. The owner may also appeal any of the Town’s conditions, including the terms of a site plan agreement. There is no right of appeal for any other person. Financial Implications All applicable development fees and charges in this regard have been and will continue to be collected by the Town as required. Communications Considerations Site plan applications submitted under Section 41 of the Planning Act do not require public notification. However, a Notice of Site Plan application sign was posted on the subject property earlier this year by the applicant. The Planning Application Status is available on the Town’s website and is reported to Council and updated quarterly. Link to Strategic Plan The proposed application supports the strategic goal of promoting economic opportunities that facilitate the growth of Aurora as a desirable place to do business by providing employment opportunities and servicing lands for future investment and employment opportunities. Alternative(s) to the Recommendation 1. That Council provide direction. Conclusions The proposed application will provide employment opportunities within the Town and encourage future investment of the Business Park located at a prime gateway into the Town of Aurora. Planning Staff have reviewed the proposed Site Plan application and recommend approval in principle, subject to conditions. Outstanding technical comments are minor in nature and will be addressed prior to execution of the site plan agreement. Attachments Figure 1 – Location Map Figure 2 – Existing Official Plan Designation Page 267 of 295 May 18, 2021 11 of 11 Report No. PDS21-052 Figure 3 – Existing Zoning By-Law Designation Figure 4 – Conceptual Rendering Figure 5 – Proposed Site Plan Previous Reports General Committee Report No. PDS20-067, dated November 3, 2020 Pre-submission Review Agenda Management Team review on April 29, 2021 Approvals Approved by David Waters, MCIP, RPP, PLE, Director, Planning and Development Services Approved by Doug Nadorozny, Chief Administrative Officer Page 268 of 295 Exit45First Commerce DriveWellin gto n S treet East Leslie StreetExit 45WellingtonStreetEast Do n Hi l l o ck Dri ve Don Hillock Drive LOCATION MAP Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Building Services Department, April 20, 2021. Base data provided by York Region & the Town of Aurora. Air Photos taken Spring 2020, © First Base Solutions Inc., 2020 Orthophotography. ¯ FIGURE 1 St John's Sdrd Wellington St E Vandorf SdrdHenderson Drive ^Wellington St W UV404 UV404Leslie StYonge StBathurst StBayview AveBloomington Rd 0 25 50 75 100 MetresAPPLICANT: Aurora Self Storage Inc.FILES: SP-2021-04 SUBJECT LANDSGoulding AvenuePage 269 of 295 Highway 404Goulding AvenueFirst Commerce DriveDon Hillock Drive Exit 45WELLINGTON STREET EASTLESLIE STREETLESLIE STREETEXISTING OFFICIAL PLAN DESIGNATION Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Building Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by York Region & the Town of Aurora. ¯0 25 50 75 100 Metres APPLICANT Aurora Self Storage Inc.FILES SP-2021-04FIGURE 2 St John's Sdrd Wellington St E Vandorf SdrdHenderson Drive ^Wellington St W UV404 UV404Leslie StYonge StBathurst StBayview AveBloomington Rd SUBJECT LANDS Schedule B1 Secondary Plan Area Schedule A OPA Business Park - Regional Commercial Centre Business Park Community Commercial Page 270 of 295 First Commerce DriveDon Hillock Drive Exit45 RU-ORMC3(426) E-BP(531)(532) E-BP(531) E-BP(338) RU E-BP RU E-BP E-BP(531)(532) EP E-BP I E-BP(531)(533)EP C3(328) E-BP(531)(534) E-BP RU C3(11)E-BP(357) WELLINGTO N STREET EAST LESLIE STREETLESLIE STREETEXISTING ZONING BY-LAW DESIGNATION Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Building Services Department, April 19, 2021. Base data provided by York Region & the Town of Aurora. ¯0 25 50 75 100 Metres APPLICANT Aurora Self Storage Inc.FILES SP-2021-04FIGURE 3 SUBJECT LANDS INSTITUTIONAL ZONES InstitutionalI Zoning Legend EMPLOYMENT ZONES OPEN SPACES ZONES Environmental ProtectionEP RURAL ZONES RuralRU Oak Ridges MoraineRuralRU-ORM Business ParkE-BP COMMERCIAL ZONES Service CommercialC3 Page 271 of 295 Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Development Services Department, April 21, 2021. Base data provided by Sweeny & Co Architects CONCEPTUAL RENDERINGAPPLICANT Aurora Self Storage Inc.FILES SP-2021-04FIGURE 4 Page 272 of 295 Map created by the Town of Aurora Planning & Development Services Department, April 21, 2021. Base data provided by Sweeny & Co Architects PROPOSED SITE PLANAPPLICANT Aurora Self Storage Inc.FILES SP-2021-04FIGURE 5 Page 273 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora Notice of Motion Mayor’s Office Re: Town Wide Wi-fi Access To: Members of Council From: Mayor Tom Mrakas Date: May 18, 2021 Whereas the pandemic has had a direct impact on virtually every aspect of our lives – where we work, how our children receive their education, how we access medical care; and Whereas not all families/residents in our Town can afford home internet access or have reliable internet access, negatively impacting their ability to access important services – including emergency services and health care; and Whereas the Association of Municipalities Ontario (AMO) has stated that expanding reliable, high-speed, and affordable broadband and cellular connectivity across Ontario is a necessity, not a luxury; and Whereas Town wide wi-fi access would allow for the Town of Aurora to enhance our information output and capabilities as we continue to move towards becoming a ‘Smart Town’; and Whereas Town wide wi-fi access would enable all residents to access information, supports, schooling and the ability to stay connected with friends and family; 1. Now Therefore Be It Hereby Resolved that Council direct staff to investigate existing models of municipally implemented wi-fi services to develop a proposed model for Aurora and report back to Council; and 2. Be It Further Resolved That staff investigate public-private partnership models to consider for the potential implementation of such a wi-fi service for the Town. Page 274 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora Notice of Motion Mayor’s Office Re: Review of the Proclamations Policy To: Members of Council From: Mayor Tom Mrakas Date: May 18, 2021 Whereas Proclamations are issued to acknowledge the efforts, commitment and achievement of individuals and organizations that enhance the community of Aurora, as well as to recognize public awareness campaigns, charitable fundraising campaigns, and arts and cultural celebrations of significance to the Town; and Whereas the Town’s Proclamation Policy is one of the more restrictive policies governing proclamations in the Region of York; and Where the Proclamations Policy has not be reviewed since it was approved by Council at the end of 2016; 1.Now Therefore Be It Hereby Resolved that staff review the Proclamations Policy and report back to Council with recommendations for a less restrictive policy. Attachment 1 – Proclamation Policy 2016 Page 275 of 295 Title of Policy: Proclamation Policy Affects: All Employees, Elected Officials and members of the public, and all Town Facilities Section: Legislative Services Replaces: Not applicable Original Policy Date: Not applicable Revision Date: Not applicable Effective Date: January 1, 2017 Next Review Date: As required Prepared By: Legal & Legislative Services Approval Authority: Council 1.Purpose 1.1. This Policy establishes a framework for the approval of Proclamation requests received by the Town. 2.Application 2.1. This Policy applies to all requests for Proclamations sent to the Clerk’s Office. 2.2. The Policy does not apply to Notices of Motion submitted by Members of Council pursuant to the Procedural By-law that may result in Council proclaiming a particular event, day, week or month. 3.General Principles and Rules of the Policy 3.1. Proclamations are issued to acknowledge the efforts, commitment and achievement of individuals and organizations that enhance the community of Aurora. 3.2. Proclamations are issued to recognize public awareness campaigns, charitable fundraising campaigns, and arts and cultural celebrations of significance to the Town. 3.3. A proclamation may recognize a particular event, day, week or month. TOWN OF AURORA Legal & Legislative Services Department Corporate Policies, Programs and Procedures Proclamation Policy Attachment 1 Page 276 of 295 Town of Aurora – Corporate Policies, Programs and Procedures Proclamation Policy Page 2 of 5 3.4. An organization does not have exclusive rights to the day, week or month of its proclamation. 3.5. All proclamation requests will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis and no individual or organization has the right to a proclamation. 3.6. The declaration of a proclamation is at the discretion of the Town, and the Town reserves the right to decline any request. 3.7. Where the Town issues a proclamation in accordance with this policy such proclamation does not constitute a personal or civic endorsement by the Town or approving official. 3.8. The Town of Aurora will not incur any expenses relating to the advertising and promotion of a proclamation. 4. Definitions 4.1. In this Policy, the following words have the following meanings: (a) “Clerk” means the Clerk appointed by Council pursuant to requirements of section 228 of the Municipal Act, 2001, S.O. 2001, c. 25, as amended, or his/her designate. (b) “Council” means the Aurora Town Council. (c) “Procedural By-law” means the by-law that governs the calling, place and procedures of meetings of the Town, and that is enacted by Council in accordance with the requirements of subsection 238(2) of the Municipal Act, 2001, S.O. 2001, c.25, as amended. (d) “Town” means The Corporation of the Town of Aurora. 5. Proclamation Criteria 5.1. Proclamations may be issued by the Town to acknowledge the efforts, commitment and achievement of individuals and organizations that enhance the community of Aurora. 5.2. Proclamations may be issued by the Town to recognize public awareness campaigns, charitable fundraising campaigns, and arts and cultural celebrations of significance to the Town. Page 277 of 295 Town of Aurora – Corporate Policies, Programs and Procedures Proclamation Policy Page 3 of 5 5.3. A Proclamation may be issued by the Town if it pertains to one of the following matters: (a) Civic promotions; (b) Public awareness campaigns; (c) Charitable fundraising campaigns; (d) Awareness or celebration that promotes interfaith and/or intercultural dialogue; (e) Arts and cultural celebrations; and (f) Special honours for individuals or organizations for special achievements. 5.4. A Proclamation will not be issued by the Town when the request pertains to any of the following: (a) Individuals, events, organizations or community groups with no demonstrated interest or direct relationship to the Town; (b) Matters of political controversy, political parties or political organizations; (c) Religious organizations whose intent is to claim a recognition, or imposition, of religious doctrine and/or particular portions of religious doctrine; (d) Individual conviction; (e) Businesses or commercial enterprises, and celebrations, campaigns or events intended for profit making purposes; (f) Discriminatory or inflammatory matters; (g) Attempting to influence Town policy; (h) National, Independence or Republic Days; (i) Celebrations, campaigns or events contrary to Town Policies or by- laws; (j) Illegal matters; (k) Matters which defame the integrity of the Town; (l) Matters designed to incite hatred or disorder; and, Page 278 of 295 Town of Aurora – Corporate Policies, Programs and Procedures Proclamation Policy Page 4 of 5 (m) Matters which are untruthful. 6. Application Procedures 6.1 Requests for proclamations shall be submitted in writing and include: (a) A brief summary and background of the individual or organization requesting a proclamation; (b) A brief summary and background of the subject matter of the requested proclamation; (c) The name and date(s) of the day, week, month, or event to be proclaimed; (d) The proposed text for the proclamation, which the Clerk may request and make amendments to the proclamation, which in the Clerk’s opinion improves the structure and/or overall intent of the requested proclamation; (e) Contact person's name, address, telephone number and email; and (f) A date when the proclamation is required. 6.2 Requests for proclamation must be submitted at least one month prior to the first day of the event day, week, or month for which a proclamation is requested. 6.3 Any request to raise a flag associated with the proclamation, will be required to meet the criteria set out in the Flag Protocol and Flag Raising Policy. 7. Approval Procedures 7.1 Proclamation requests that comply with this Policy will be approved at the discretion of the Clerk. 7.2 The Clerk may refer any request for a proclamation to the Mayor or any other Town staff for comment on the request. 7.3 The Clerk will notify the requestor of the Town’s decision in relation to any request received within five (5) business days. 8. Communication of the Proclamation 8.1 The individual, organization or community group will be responsible for disseminating the proclamation to the media and making arrangements for Page 279 of 295 Town of Aurora – Corporate Policies, Programs and Procedures Proclamation Policy Page 5 of 5 the attendance of the Mayor and/or Councillors at the specific function or event, if any, at which the proclamation is to be made. 8.2 Notice of proclamations approved by the Clerk will be posted on the Town’s website or by other means at the discretion of the Town. 8.3 Certificates of proclamations are available from the Clerk’s Office upon request. 9. Delegation 9.1 The authority to approve or deny Proclamations under this Policy is delegated to the Clerk or his/her designate. 9.2 The Clerk may refer any request for Proclamation for Council’s consideration when deemed appropriate by the Clerk. 10. Responsibility 10.1 Council will be responsible for: (a) approving and amending this Policy; and (b) deciding on any matter referred by the Clerk to Council. 10.2 The Clerk will be responsible for: (a) exercising any authority delegated to the Clerk by this Policy; (b) administering the operation of this Policy; (c) interpreting this Policy; and (d) creating any procedure that the Clerk deems necessary for the effective and efficient implementation of this Policy. Page 280 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora Notice of Motion Mayor’s Office Re: Beaver Dam Removal To: Members of Council From: Mayor Tom Mrakas Date: May 18, 2021 Whereas beavers dam up the infrastructure of our stormwater management ponds and streams, causing the flow to stop which can result in extensive floods; and Whereas the Town has a legislative responsibility to protect our infrastructure from potential flooding due to damming; and Whereas the Town currently uses existing humane methods of diverting beavers away from our storm water management infrastructure – from wrapping trees to specialized tree plantings; and Whereas the Town has in past used the services of a licensed trapper for beavers where no other solution is appropriate; and Whereas the Town stopped trapping activities in December 2020 to investigate water level control and flow devices used in a few other municipalities such as London and Ottawa; and Whereas Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) strongly supports that storm water management systems are maintained and operated in accordance with their respective Environmental Compliance Approval (ECA) to ensure that people, property, and infrastructure are not at risk from flooding; 1. Now Therefore Be It Hereby Resolved That staff be directed to discontinue the return to trapping and instead implement dam removal as it is the only humane option available to the municipality at this time and explore alternative water level management controls that would ensure compliance with the respective Environmental Compliance Approval (ECA); and 2. Be It Further Resolved That a copy of this motion be sent to Hon. John Yakabuski Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry, Hon. Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier, Michael Parsa, MPP, and all York Region Municipalities. Page 281 of 295 100 John West Way Aurora, Ontario L4G 6J1 (905) 727-3123 aurora.ca Town of Aurora Memorandum Office of the Mayor Subject: York Regional Council Highlights of April 22, 2021 To: Members of Council From: Mayor Mrakas Date: May 18, 2021 Recommendation 1. That the York Regional Council Highlights of April 22, 2021, be received for information. Page 282 of 295 Home > Newsroom > Media Releases Media Release Council Highlights April 28, 2021 York Regional Council – Thursday, April 22, 2021 Live streaming of the public session of Council and Committee of the Whole meetings is available on the day of the meeting from 9 a.m. until the close of the meeting. Past sessions are also available at York.ca/councilandcommittee Regional Council calls for a balanced approach to COVID-19 measures On April 7, 2021, the Government of Ontario declared a third provincial state of emergency under section 7.0.1 of the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act. On April 19, 2021, the government introduced further restrictions and extended the province-wide stay-at home order an additional two weeks. Strengthened public health measures under the stay-at-home order include limiting outdoor gatherings to members of the immediate household, stoppage of all non-essential construction, capacity limits of 25% for permitted in-person shopping and the closure of outdoor recreation amenities. York Regional Council Highlights - April 22, 2021York Regional Council Highlights - April 22, 2021 Page 283 of 295 Over the past number of weeks, confirmed cases of COVID-19 have increased in York Region, putting pressure on public health resources and hospital capacity. While Regional Council appreciates the actions of the province, they remain committed to better balancing the mental and physical well-being of residents with practical restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 in our communities. It is the position of Regional Council and York Region Medical Officer of Health Dr. Karim Kurji that protecting the mental and physical health of residents is just as critical as protecting public health and safety. For that reason, York Region has called upon the Government of Ontario to reconsider current public health restrictions and reopen as many outdoor recreational amenities as possible in York Region and across the province for non-organized sport activities. Regional Council also extended thanks to the Government of Canada for taking action to suspend all incoming passenger flights from India and Pakistan for the next 30 days. Variants of concern, including the new B.1.617 double mutation variant which originated in India and reached our communities through international travel, have higher transmission rates and are primarily responsible for recent surges in case counts in York Region, Ontario and Canada. By working in collaboration with partners at all levels of government, Regional Council is confident we can bring case numbers down, protect the health and well-being of residents and support the reopening of our local, provincial and national economies. York Region’s continued response to COVID-19 Regional Council received a number of updates on York Region’s continued response to COVID-19 and implementation of the York Region Mass COVID-19 Vaccination Plan. In his weekly address to Regional Council, York Region Medical Officer of Health Dr. Karim Kurji provide an update on vaccination efforts and York Region’s balanced approach to vaccinating priority populations while also trying to break transmission of COVID-19 in the community. In addition to all eligible priority groups, York Region is targeting vaccination efforts to high priority communities, also known as hot spots, where infections, hospitalizations and fatalities have been highest. At the same time, mobile vaccination teams continue to target workplaces in these hot spot areas that have encountered the greatest number of outbreaks and repeat outbreaks. Overall, York Region continues to make great progress with the Mass COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy. Through 10 York Region and partner-led clinics, along with the availability of AstraZeneca vaccines through pharmacies and primary care provides, more than 340,000 doses of COVID-19 have been administered to York Region residents thus far. Page 284 of 295 Regional Council also received an updated on the corporate response to COVID-19, which provided an overview of programs and services provided to residents throughout the pandemic, along with the projected financial impacts for 2021. In response to the growing and varied needs of residents, York Region has implemented a number of new initiatives to provide continued support to residents. Virtual programming to support families and children, including virtual feeding groups and parenting consultations, have been introduced through social services and EarlyON partner agencies. The York Region COVID-19 Self-Isolation Centre provides residents a safe location to isolate when recovering from a COVID-19 infection and Social Services Relief Funding has been used to create longer-term housing solutions for those in need. In addition to community supports, York Region continues to offer a number of virtual programs and services along with the essential services residents and businesses rely on every day. These programs, along with the broader public health response to COVID-19, have an estimated financial impact of $87.3 million for the first quarter of 2021. This is an average cost of $6.7 million per week. Preliminary financial estimates suggest that the costs to deliver the public health response and mass immunization program are between $60 and $90 million higher than anticipated in the 2021 budget. However, funding commitments through senior levels of government are expected to help address these financial impacts. More information on York Region’s continued response to COVID-19 is available at york.ca/covid19 Paramedic Services implement new protocols to support COVID-19 patient care  Regional Council received an update from York Region Paramedic Services on the impacts of COVID-19 on patient care and resident health and well-being. Due to increased capacity strains faced by York Region’s local hospitals, along with an increase in 911 emergency calls and emergency department visits, York Region Paramedics implemented Assessment of Patients with Possible COVID-19 Medical Directive – Auxiliary on Thursday, April 15, 2021. This medical directive allows paramedics to assess and consider patients for release from care. York Region paramedics will work collaboratively with local hospital partners to evaluate capacity constraints in their local emergency departments and implement the directive as an alternative option for care. Prior to releasing each patient from care, paramedics will obtain authorization from the base hospital physician. Implementation of this directive is an important step to help alleviate pressures on the health-care system. York Region Paramedics Services continues to support our communities, providing the highest quality of Page 285 of 295 care throughout this pandemic. York Region Transit continues to provide efficient and safe service during COVID-19 Pandemic Regional Council was updated on York Region Transit’s (YRT) system performance. In 2020, COVID-19 significantly impacted transit service across the country. York Region Transit (YRT) saw ridership reduced to 10.7 million riders compared to 22.9 million in 2019. As an essential service, transit continued to run with an enhanced cleaning and safety protocol to provide transportation options to essential workers, people travelling to grocery stores and medical appointments. To address decreased ridership, efficiencies to some routes experiencing low ridership were found by replacing conventional service with Mobility On- Request, an on-demand transit option reducing costs. In addition to finding efficiencies throughout the system and service effectiveness to routes with low ridership, YRT also moved forward important initiatives including: YRT will continue to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure staff and travellers remain safe as well as having access to safe and reliable transit. York Region appoints representative to Rouge National Urban Park Advisory Committee Regional Council appointed City of Markham Regional Councillor Jack Heath as the York Region representative on the Rouge National Urban Park Multi-Stakeholder and Public Advisory Committee. This committee provides the Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Minister of Parks Canada with recommendations, knowledge and guidance on the responsible management of the park and implementation of the Rouge National Urban Park Management Plan. The committee also serves as a forum for ongoing collaboration between Parks Canada and Indigenous Peoples, local government, community partners and the public. Town of Whitchurch-Stouffville Mayor Iain Lovatt will sit on the committee as the representative from Whitchurch-Stouffville and the City of Markham will put forward a name for representation. Purchasing the Newmarket Bus Terminal and completed modifications to improve the terminal Launching the first six electric buses in operation in the Region Adjusting fare categories across the YRT system to match those in the GTHA, a positive step towards fare integration Opening the last two segments of the Viva Rapidway along Yonge Street Page 286 of 295 York Region appoints representative to Canadian National Exhibition Association Regional Council appointed Town of Georgina Regional Councillor Robert Grossi as the York Region representative to the Canadian National Exhibition (CNE) Association. The CNE Association is responsible for the planning and presentation of the annual Canadian National Exhibition, Canada’s largest community event and one of the top agricultural fairs in North America. $355 million being invested in roads and transit infrastructure Regional Council approved $355 million to continue building road and transit system improvements in 2021. This contributes to an overall investment of $3.3 billion, the highest to date, over the next 10 years which will continue to build and maintain infrastructure to ensure York Region communities have access to a safe, reliable and responsive transportation network. To enhance roads and transit, nearly 100 construction projects are planned across the Region. These projects include: In 2020, $272 million was invested to advance construction on several major projects, bus purchases for fleet renewal as well as expansion programs. Slow down: speed limit revisions at seven locations Regional Council approved revisions to speed limits on seven sections of Regional roads. Roads with revised speed limits include: Several factors are considered when revising speed limits on Regional roads, including: Reconstructing and widening of roads and bridges Upgrading intersections Building or expanding transit terminals and operations maintenance facilities Road rehabilitation and preservation Mulock Drive/Vivian Road, from Leslie Street to Woodbine Avenue – 70 km/hr to 60 km/hr Ninth Line from 63 metres north of Reeves Way Boulevard to 180 metres south of Reeves Way Boulevard – 70 km/hr to 60 km/hr Major Mackenzie Drive East from Ninth Line to York/Durham Line – 80 km/hr to 70 km/hr Langstaff Road from Highway 50 to Highway 27 – 80 km/hr to 60 km/hr Major Mackenzie Drive West from Highway 50 to 715 metres west of Barons Street – 70 km/hr to 60 km/hr Major Mackenzie Drive West from Pine Valley Drive to Islington Avenue – 70 km/hr to 60 km/hr King-Vaughan Road from Pine Valley Drive to 400 metres east of Weston Road – 70 km/hr to 60 km/hr Page 287 of 295 To notify travellers of the speed limit changes, “new” signs will be posted above the speed limit signs at the beginning of each changed speed zone. Traffic bylaw amendment to support HOV lane designation To increase the total number of people travelling on Major Mackenzie Drive West between Barons Street and Highway 27 in the City of Vaughan, Regional Council has approved a bylaw amendment to support the designation of a high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane. This dedicated lane for use by buses and passenger vehicles with more than one person will help minimize delays to buses, improve reliability for transit service along this corridor and encourage carpooling. The HOV lane will be in effect 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. Monday through Friday, as of Thursday, April 22, 2021. Safely crossing Regional roads Regional Council approved a Pedestrian Crossover Policy for use on Regional Roads. Pedestrian crossovers provide protected road crossing opportunities and safety benefits to people who use them. With the approval of the new policy, a consistent method will be in place to determine appropriate the locations and types of crossovers on Regional roads. Until now, the Region has been exclusively installing pedestrian signals to assist those wishing to cross midblock. Pedestrian crossovers clearly assign the right-of-way between pedestrians and motorists at otherwise uncontrolled crossings, providing pedestrians with protected crossing opportunities by requiring motorists to stop when pedestrians are present in the crosswalk. The first pedestrian crossover will be installed on Yonge Street at the Holland Landing Community Centre in the Town of East Gwillimbury. Agreement with Canadian National Railway (CNR) to rail grade separation Adjusting speeds in areas with new community growth, increasing traffic volumes, intersections, driveway connections, pedestrians and cyclists requiring the need for travellers to slow down Reducing frequent changes to speed limits on a stretch of road to reduce confusion and increase compliance Revising speeds to allow drivers to have an appropriate time to react to potential hazards Page 288 of 295 Regional Council has approved an agreement with Canadian National Railway (CNR) for the construction and long-term maintenance of Rutherford Road bridge at the MacMillan Rail Yard, west of Rotational Drive, in the City of Vaughan. The widening of the bridge will accommodate the planned expansion of Rutherford Road to six lanes. This road and bridge widening will benefit residents of Vaughan and York Region by improving flow of traffic through increased transportation options on this busy east-west transportation corridor. York Region continues to meet highest drinking water standards York Region continues to receive excellent drinking water scores with the 2020 Drinking Water Systems Report. York Region received excellent scores in the 2019-2020 Chief Drinking Water Inspector’s Annual Report Card with a score of 99.98% for water samples meeting Ontario’s drinking water quality standards and an inspection score of 100%. In 2020, all Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks inspections at York Region’s 15 drinking water systems scored 100%. The 2020 Drinking Water Systems Report highlights York Region’s actions to protect water quality and compliance under the Safe Drinking Water Act, 2002. Despite COVID-19, safe and uninterrupted water and wastewater services continue to be maintained for York Region residents and businesses. York Region’s robust and rigorous compliance approach includes source water protection, operator training, water treatment, extensive monitoring and testing and emergency preparedness. Water quality reports for your community water systems can be found through the online report highlights tool at york.ca/drinkingwater 2020 research and innovation update York Region continues to be an industry leader in research and innovation. Despite the uncertainties of the past year, Environmental Services participated in several research initiatives to support water, wastewater, waste management, forestry and energy conservation program delivery. Joining the Canadian Water Network’s COVID-19 wastewater coalition last year, York Region partnered with leading scientists to help develop methods to test for COVID-19 in wastewater. The provincial government invested more than $12 million in COVID-19 wastewater surveillance to determine how this information can assist the public health response. Page 289 of 295 Ongoing environmental research supports the improvement of facility and field operations, asset management programs and helps shape the design of future infrastructure. By working collaboratively with industry partners, York Region is able to leverage a larger funding pool to achieve more meaningful research for all involved. This research enables informed decision-making and leads to industry best practices. Lake Simcoe Protection Plan: 10-year review The Lake Simcoe Protection Plan includes a legislative requirement to review every 10 years; with most recent stakeholder comments due March 3, 2021. York Region staff focused their recommendations for the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan Review on how best to implement and achieve goals and targets of the existing plan, proposing a number of concrete actions to advance work over the next 10 years. York Region staff recommend focusing on removing phosphorus from runoff. This is considered the single most effective means to reduce phosphorus entering Lake Simcoe. Other recommendations include: New provincial vision for social assistance Ontario’s vision for a renewed social assistance system will help more people move towards employment and independence. Through this new vision, the Province will centralize all eligibility and financial decisions for both Ontario Works and ODSP. Centralizing and automating financial administration is intended to provide additional time for caseworkers to provide person-centred client support. The Province’s Recovery & Renewal: Ontario’s Vision for Social Assistance Transformation will be tested through 2021 to 2024 with full implementation expected by end of 2024. Participating in programs like the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA) Phosphorus Offsetting Program, requiring zero net increase in phosphorus from new development Investing in green infrastructure, such as reducing shoreline hardscapes and increasing tree cover to naturally reduce contaminants to the lake Advancing municipal sewage treatment, such as the proposed Upper York Water Resource Recovery facility, to achieve economies of scale and use best-in-class wastewater treatment processes to return high-quality water back into the environment  Page 290 of 295 Growth continues across York Region communities Despite significant economic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, The Regional Municipality of York continued to grow in population, construction value and the housing market. Contained in the 2020 Growth and Development Review, Annual Development Activity Summary and Centres and Corridors update reports, below are some highlights of last year’s activity: Similar to other communities across Ontario and Canada, York Region experiences a higher than average level of job loss in 2020. Industries most impacted included retail, service and tourism and hospitality. The York Region 2020 unemployment rate ranged from a low of 3.6% prior to the pandemic to a high of 13.7% due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and ended the year at 8%. As we look to COVID-19 recovery efforts, there are some positive indicators for 2021 and beyond. York Region remains development ready and has a healthy supply of residential units nearing completion and strong development activity is expected to continue. York Region’s employment growth is also forecasted to occur in both 2021 and 2022. Total employment is expected to return to pre-COVID-19 employment levels in 2022. ventureLab 2020 Annual Result update Regional Council received an update on ventureLAB 2020 activities which highlight the innovation centre’s ability to alter their services and programs to assist businesses across York Region during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was achieved through: York Region’s population grew by 11,100 people, the third highest in the GTHA, following the Region of Peel and City of Toronto Development activity increased 3% over 2019 Development industry remained strong with 5,832 building permits issued for dwelling units, a 25% increase from 2019 Housing completions increased by 19.7% to 6,339 compared to 5,294 in 2019, with an additional 10,400 units still under construction Residential building permit and construction activity within York Region’s four key urban centres (Centres and Corridors) was one of the strongest years on record; approximately 68% of all new apartment units were within the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre (VMC) and 12% of permits were for purpose-built rentals Along the proposed Yonge North Subway Extension, 17,000 apartment units and 550,000 square feet of commercial/retail spaces have been proposed since 2018; the Yonge North Subway Extension continues to be top transit priorities for York Region The launch of a new Innovation Hub Membership model to support tech start-ups and meet the demands of a hybrid and remote workforce Page 291 of 295 ventureLAB is York Region’s provincially recognized Regional Innovation Centre and helps drive Regional economic growth and job creation by supporting the development and delivery of programs and services, targeting technology-based entrepreneurs looking to start or grow a business. York Region extends thanks to Transportation Services Commissioner Paul Jankowski Regional Council extended thanks and appreciation to Transportation Services Commissioner Paul Jankowski, who leaves the Region for an exciting opportunity as the CEO of the newly created Edmonton Metropolitan Transit Services. Over two tenures with York Region, Commissioner Jankowski oversaw some of the largest transit initiatives in York Region’s 50-year history. This included launching an electric bus trial to advance the electrification of the Region’s fleet, building an integrated and focused transportation department and overseeing numerous infrastructure projects, resulting in hundreds of new lane-kilometres of roads, new freeway interchanges, bridges and other structures. Council offered their best wishes to Mr. Jankowski in this new role, while also thanking him for his dedication and commitment to the Region. Ann Marie Carroll, the General Manager of Transit, will serve as the Acting Commissioner of Transportation Services, effective May 1, 2021. York Region recognized for innovation and excellence in public works York Region received five awards from the Ontario Public Works Association for innovative work on transportation and wastewater projects. York Region’s 2020 Public Works Projects of the Year awards included: Regular meetings with senior level decision makers to offer guidance on key challenges faced by small and medium enterprises Continued collaboration with small and medium enterprises to help navigate the impact of COVID-19 Environmental Services’ Emergency Groundwater Management where staff were able to manage an uncontrolled water flow from an artesian well, mitigating risks and reducing impact on the surrounding habitat Environmental Services’ Schomberg Water Treatment Plant Emergency Filter Rehabilitation Project Transportation Services’ Norman Bethune Avenue and Aristotle Avenue Project in partnership with the City of Markham and City of Richmond Hill Page 292 of 295 The 2020 Management Innovation Award recognized Environmental Services’ Drinking Water Compliance Data Validation and Public Visualization Project and York Region Director of Environmental Promotion and Protection Laura McDowell was recognized as a 2020 Public Works Leader of the Year. York Region has also received an award from Ontario Good Roads Association under the 2020 John Niedra Better Practices Competition. This award recognized Transportation Services’ Leslie Street Low Impact Development where York Region undertook an innovative approach for the storm sewer management on the Leslie Street road widening project between Elgin Mills Road and 19th Avenue in the City of Richmond Hill. The OPWA Awards Program was established to recognize outstanding individuals, groups and organizations representing the best in the public works profession. Stronger together, celebrating National Public Works Week National Public Works Week will take place May 16 to 22, 2021 celebrating the efforts taken to deliver many services throughout the year. This year’s theme is Stronger Together, will be highlighted in a number of virtual activities planned for the week. Public works services include: More information on the fun and educational virtual events taking place throughout the week will be updated on york.ca/publicworks Mental Health Awareness Week Regional Council will recognize Mental Health Awareness Week from May 3 to 9, 2021. Sponsored by the Canadian Mental Health Association, the 2021 Mental Health Awareness Week theme of Get Real focuses on understanding emotions while also celebrating, protecting and promoting mental health. Through a week of virtual and interactive activities and celebrations, Mental Health Awareness Week provides all residents with an opportunity to shine a light on the very real and serious emotional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Providing safe and clean drinking water Roads maintenance Monitoring traffic control and signal operations Transit Planting, protecting and enhancing York Region forest and street trees Page 293 of 295 Emergency Preparedness Week Regional Council will recognize Emergency Preparedness Week from May 2 to 8, 2021. This year’s annual Emergency Preparedness Week theme, Be Ready for Anything, encourages all Canadians to take action and become better prepared for the range of emergencies they could face. York Region residents can visit york.ca/beprepared to learn more about emergency preparedness and what is needed to build a personal emergency preparedness kit. National Day of Mourning Regional Council will recognize Wednesday, April 28, 2021as National Day of Mourning. By lowering flags at Regional facilities, York Region will pay respect to the thousands of workers who have been killed, injured or suffered illness as a result of work-related incidents. Earth Day Regional Council recognized Earth Day on Thursday, April 22, 2021, encouraging residents to take concrete action to take care of the planet on a daily basis. First celebrated on April 22, 1970, Earth Day is now a world-wide environmental movement to increase awareness and appreciation of the Earth’s natural environment and support environmental protection. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic, earthday.ca encourages residents to celebrate #earthdayathome everyday through practical, creative and fun activities to reduce waste, practice sustainable mobility, reduce energy consumption and protect the natural environment. Ramadan Regional Council recognized Tuesday, April 13, 2021, as the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, wishing members of York Region’s Muslim community a peaceful moth of reflection, generosity, gratitude and prayer. Page 294 of 295 Holocaust Remembrance Day On April 7, 2021, Regional Council joined in solidarity with the Jewish community in York Region and around the world to recognize Yom HaShoah, also known as Holocaust Remembrance Day. This solemn day of observance honours the memory of the six million Jewish men, women and children killed in the Holocaust and serves as a reminder to never repeat the atrocities of the past. Next meeting of York Regional Council York Regional Council will meet on Thursday, April 28, 2021 at 9 a.m. To maintain physical distancing and protect the health and well-being of residents, this is currently planned to be a virtual meeting and streamed on york.ca/live The Regional Municipality of York consists of nine local cities and towns and provides a variety of programs and services to 1.2 million residents and 54,000 businesses with over 650,000 employees. More information about the Region’s key service areas is available at york.ca/regionalservices -30- Media Contact: Kylie-Anne Doerner, Corporate Communications, The Regional Municipality of York 1-877-464-9675, ext. 71232 Cell: 289-716-6035 kylie-anne.doerner@york.ca https://www.york.ca/wps/poc/york/yorkhome? 1dmy&urile=wcm%3apath%3a%2FYR_Content%2FYorkConstituent%2 FAllMediaReleases%2FYorkRegionalCouncilThursdayApril222021 Printed: April 30, 2021 Page 295 of 295